Perspectives: $400 Million, Cole, Spring Training, and More.

By Paul Semendinger

March 12, 2025

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I'll begin with a confession. (Many know this already.) I don't watch Spring Training games. I have very little interest. None of it matters. Or, at best, very little matters. In essence, the players are spending time working on skills. While they are playing games, they are trying out different approaches that may or may not be used during the season. Yogi Berra once stated that he didn't want to waste his hits during Spring Training. I think many others feel the same.

What is also true it that batters aren't hitting against pitchers giving their best stuff. MLB-level infielders and outfielders also aren't tracking down their hits. Finally, even if it were all played at 100% and with every last bit of effort, the end result is a very small sample size rendering much of what is seen statistically irrelevant. As such, as fans, we can't ascertain what numbers mean anything. The team, hopefully seeing other things as they practice, is in a better position to judge where each player truly is.

I can't get excited about the prospect who bats .385 against back-of-the-bullpen arms. I also can't get excited about pitchers who look good for 30 pitches at a time. The difference between the regular season and Spring Training is vast.

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I also don't enjoy Spring Training games because when one sees the Yankees, not in their regular uniforms, it indicates that they are just role playing. They're trying, but they also know the results don't really matter. I just cannot invest in games that don't matter.

I am eager for the real games to start. We'll be there soon. When the games matter, I care. When they don't, I really do not care. Most fans can't wait to see Spring Training games, not me.

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With the Gerrit Cole injury, there are many who are saying, "Yeah, but everyone agreed that they should have brought him back when he opted out so you can't complain that he got hurt." No, not me.

When Cole opted out, I said the Yankees should let him go. Go back and check. I wrote the following on November 6, 2024:

I am a fan of Gerrit Cole. He has been a terrific ace for the Yankees. He came up big in the World Series (except when he didn't cover first base). That being said, he is entering the second half of his long deal. The second half of these long term deals usually don't go so well. If he had opted out, I would have let him go. "Thanks for the memories. Good luck."

***

So many decry the salaries of players and such...

So many claim the Yankees cannot afford to get the top talent.

So many say the Dodgers are cheating when they're simply making smart baseball moves.

I keep stating that there is more money in baseball than any person not involved in the sport can understand.

The Yankees continually state how they have to watch their costs. They tell their fans that they just cannot get all the players they need because players are just too expensive. "It's difficult to run a team," the Yankees say. Hal Steinbrenner noted that he doesn't even know how the Yankees can compete with these super high payrolls.

And then a report like this comes out:

In ticket sales alone, not concessions, not merchandise, not commericals, not billboards, not ads in the stadium, not the patch on their sleeve, not their own TV network, not from other TV deals, and more, the Yankees report bringing in over $411,000,000 in 2024 alone.

In other words, the Yankees made a profit over their payroll of over one hundred million dollards - on ticket sales alone. Remember, that doesn't include any other revenue.

Think about that. Just on ticket sales, the Yankees turned a gigantic profit. 100 million dollars.

The Yankees are awash in money. They can easily afford any and all the players they wish. That they don't isn't a matter of them not being able to afford them. It's a matter of how much bigger of a giant profit they wish to make.

When the Yankees get their fans talking about the payroll and saying that certain players are unaffordable, they are getting the fans to make excuses for the fact that they are unwilling to go all-in. In this, the Yankees have tricked their fans into doing their bidding for them. I'll give the Yankees credit, it is a great marketing strategy, but it's not true.

The Yankees can afford to do more. When they complain that they can't afford certain players, they are, simply, not being completely honest. The ruth is they don't want to spend more. There is a big difference.

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Tim Kabel beat me to the punch and wrote an article the other day noting the Yankees' youth movement that is underway. It really is amazing. Austin Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe, Ben Rice, Everson Pereira, Clarke Schmidt... that's a lot of players that came up through the system. If the majority of these players turn out to be good or very good Major Leaguers, the Yankees will be in a great position.

Of course, seeing if they become good players is by no means certain. I hope it will be fun to watch. A lot is riding on these young kids.

With Cole is out and it is looking like Stanton is out... more and more the weight of the 2025 season is on the shoulders of these kids. The Yankees hopes right now ride on Oswald Peraza, Ben Rice, Everson Pereira, Anthony Volpe, and Jasson Dominguez. The Yankees need a lot to go right, to actually defy the odds on the performance of so many young kids, for their season to end in a championship. It's not likely.

It could be fun watching the next core develop, but it is clear that the previous core that everyone hoped on, the one that was comprised of so much young talent, didn't pan out. By the time this group is ready to be great, if they even get there.

It seems clear that the Yankees wasted the best seasons that Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge would have together. It didn't have to be that way, but, oh yeah, the money. The mighty Yankees just could find a way financially to put it all together.

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Many people wrote or said that Juan Soto is greedy, that he is only out for the money, that he was going to take the highest offer no matter what, and so forth. Well, there is a report that Juan Soto was offered more money from a team other than the Mets.

If this turns out to be true, I wonder how many of the people who were so critical of Soto and who were wrong in their assumptions will state, "You know what, I was wong."

I'm guessing very few.

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The 2025 Yankees don't have a proven third baseman. They don't have a proven DH. They don't have a leadoff hitter. They have only two healthy legitimate starting pitchers after Max Fried right now (Rodon and Stroman) and both have not been less than stellar the last two years.

2025 could get ugly fast.

It didn't have to be this way. It hasn't had to be this way for the last 15 years...

***

Speaking of Marcus Stroman. I know many people believe he'll be a fine # 5 starter. I disagree. He is no longer a viable MLB starter. He is, at best a five inning starter who will deliver less than league average results. (Last year Stroman averaged barely over 5 innings a start.)

The numbers showing that Stroman is way past his prime back me up.

Notice these:

2021 - 133

2022 - 119

2023 - 108

2014 - 95

That is Stroman's ERA+ over the last four seasons. Notice the trend. He gets worse every year.

Here is another number: 6.6. That was Stroman's strikeouts per nine innings in 2024, his worst total over a full season since... well, forever. It was the worst he ever did.

How about his WHIP? Yes, you guess it, his WHIP has also gone in the wrong direction every season since 2021:

2021 - 1.145

2022 - 1.147

2023 - 1.259

2024 - 1.468

Look at his WAR:

2021 - 3.4

2022 - 2.7

2023 - 1.6

2024 - 0.7

None of this is good. It's a very real trend downward. (Oh, his homers allowed per nine innings was the most be ever allowed in a season last year.)

Stroman's decline isn't a one year thing, it's a multi-year thing. In that time, two teams, the Mets and the Cubs, also moved on from him.

This is not hard to see. This is as obvious as anything. Marcus Stroman is not a good pitcher any longer. His career has been trending down. His career was in decline BEFORE the Yankees signed him, and then, no surprise, his numbers got worse.

If the Yankees plan to contend in 2025, Marcus Stroman is not a pitcher who they should depend on. At all.

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Now, I already know the responses some will want to make regarding my take on Marcus Stroman. "That trend doesn't prove anything. So what? He can bounce back."

I can almost guarantee that the same people that will say that Stroman's trend downwards over hundreds of innings over three seasons doesn't matter are also the same ones touting other players' Spring Training stats this year.

Which has more validity - a few weeks in February and March where the games don't count against teams that are not comprised of all MLB starters or a three year trend against MLB competition? (The answer is obvious.)

Stroman's numbers are very concerning. The fact that he might be the Yankees' fourth starter says all you need to know about the 2025 Yankees.

***

The other big concern is Will Warren.

And, I know, I get it. He looks great. He made changes. He's now ready. And maybe he is.

People know that Will Warren wasn't good in the Major Leagues last year (6 games, 5 starts, 10.32 ERA).

What most don't know is tha his numbers in AAA also weren't great (23 games, 5.91 ERA).

Again, he might have figured something out, but Will Warren is not a pitcher coming off a solid minor league season who only had some struggles in the big leagues. No, he's a pitcher who didn't pitch well in the minor leagues or the Major Leagues in 2024. In fact, across two seasons (2023 and 2024) in 44 games at Triple-A, Warren's ERA is 4.82.

If Stoman is the team's # 4 starter, Warren slots in at # 5.

Knowing that 40% of the rotation heading into 2025 is Marcus Stroman and Will Warren should give fans a lot of pause.

Knowing that those two are the best solutions they have right now is even more concerning.

(Have no fear, Carlos Rodon who was strictly league-average (104 ERA+ in 2024) is the # 2 guy.)

In short... YIKES!