Peace And Quiet of Offseason Could be Ending Soon

By Sal Maiorana

December 2023

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Sal Maiorana, a friend of the site, shares some of his thoughts on the Yankees.

For honest, unfiltered analysis on the New York Yankees, you can subscribe to Sal Maiorana's free Pinstripe People Newsletter at https://salmaiorana.beehiiv.com/subscribe.

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I’ll lead off today with the news that Luis Severino is moving across town to sign a one-year, $13 million contract with the Mets, something that had been rumored for about a week and was finally announced Wednesday.

And so ends the pinstripe days of a star-crossed pitcher who at one point looked like the next great Yankees ace before injuries sabotaged his career and ultimately convinced the Yankee brass that it was time to move on so they didn’t even bother trying to re-sign him.

It’s a shame because Severino was so damn good in 2017 and 2018 when he made a combined 63 regular-season starts, went 33-14 with a 3.18 ERA, had a phenomenal 1.092 WHIP, and an impressive 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.64 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Elite stuff which is why he was an All-Star both seasons and finished third and ninth in the AL Cy Young balloting.

And then, disaster. He missed almost all of 2019 with shoulder and lat injuries, then sat out all of 2020 and most of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. In his last two seasons, both cut short by injuries, he made 19 appearances in each but went a combined 11-11 with a 4.80 ERA and a poor 1.301 WHIP as his strikeouts dwindled and his walks increased.

Things were so bad in 2023 that Severino anointed himself, “The worst pitcher in baseball” and when he said that, he may have been right on the money because from the start of July to mid-August he was 1-6 with an 11.08 ERA.

The Mets are hoping that Severino - who still can dial it up to 100 mph when he’s right - will benefit from changing boroughs and it’s not a bad bet on their part. It’s certainly possible that Severino can flourish in his age 30 season, maybe well enough to go into 2025 free agency in line for a longer-term contract.

Brad Ausmus is the new bench coach

Ordinarily, it doesn't matter to me who the bench coach is. Honestly, who cares? But in this case, it’s an interesting hire for the Yankees because Ausmus could very well be in line to become the next manager.

Boone’s contract expires after 2024 and it appears the Yankees aren’t keen on negotiating an extension as they will wait to see how this season plays out. I love that. Boone has not earned that type of trust and if this season begins to flame out, I could see the Yankees firing Boone midseason or simply parting ways after 2024 now that they have someone sitting next to him who has MLB managerial experience.

Remember, Ausmus was a Brian Cashman hire, and it’s probably not someone Boone recommended. Boone and Ausmus have no working history together, not as players and not on any coaching staff. This isn’t like when Boone went to bat for his buddy, Sean Casey, to be the hitting coach after Dillon Lawson was fired last summer. I’m sure Boone and Ausmus know each other and probably respect each other, but don’t think for a minute that Cashman made this move without considering the big picture.

Ausmus certainly hasn’t excelled as a manger. He led the Tigers from 2014-17 and had a 314-332 record with one playoff appearance in 2014. He then lasted only one season (2019) with the Angels where he went 72-90 and was replaced by Joe Maddon. Still, Ausmus is considered to be a very smart guy (Dartmouth grad), he played 18 years in the majors as a defense-first catcher, his five years of managerial experience and one season (2022) as a bench coach with the A’s are important, and he is known to be a believer in analytics which Cashman surely appreciates.

If not this season, it’s entirely possible that Ausmus replaces Boone in time for the 2025 season. I don’t really have a strong feeling about him, but as you all know, I’ve been done with Boone for a while so I’d be all for a change.

Who might be the newest Yankees?

MLB’s Winter Meetings start start next week and this is usually when things start to happen on the trade and free agency fronts. There have been a smattering of signings already, nothing that really pertains to the Yankees outside of Severino moving on.

As always, the Yankees are connected with several of the biggest names because they’re the Yankees. Of course, what Yankee haters always seem to ignore is that the Dodgers, Mets, Giants and Red Sox are usually always in the hunt for the big-money guys and that’s the case again.

Here are my thoughts on a few of these players:

OF/DH Juan Soto: The 25-year-old star is still property of the Padres because he isn’t eligible for free agency until 2025. So it will take a trade to acquire him, and the package going back to San Diego will have to be massive.

Soto is exactly what the Yankees need, a left fielder who is a great lefty-swinging offensive player. Since he debuted with the Nationals in 2018 as a 19-year-old, he has played six seasons (the last 1 ½ with San Diego) and his career 162-game averages are 33 home runs, 100 RBI, 133 walks, 120 strikeouts, a slash line of .284/.421/.524, an OPS of .946. In other words, Hall of Fame if that were to continue. In fact, Hall of Fame even if he declines only slightly.

However, here’s the issue for the Yankees. It will cost a lot to get him for the last year of his current contract which will be around $33 million once he goes through arbitration. Many names have been flying around on the rumor mill as possible trade chips including Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, Everson Pereira, Clark Schmidt, and Michael King, plus top prospects Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones, Will Warren, Chase Hampton and Drew Thorpe. And it won’t be one of those guys, it would be several of them.

If they do make the trade, Soto will join a Yankee team that, at least in my opinion, probably isn’t World Series worthy. I’m not even sure they would be able to win the AL East, or even make the playoffs unless Soto and several other upgrades arrive. Thus, they would have Soto for what very well could be a wasted season, and after 2024 he would go into free agency where the asking price will likely be north of $400 million, meaning there’s a very good chance he’d essentially be a one-year rental for the Yankees.

Look, it’s not my money. And if the Yankees were confident that they could sign him after 2024 and pair him with Aaron Judge in the outfield for the next seven years, I’m good with that because he hasn’t even reached his prime playing years yet and the Yankees would then get all of those.

Ultimately, it comes down to this in my view: If they can sign Soto long-term, I’m all for acquiring him, but because Scott Boras is his agent, the chances of getting Soto to agree to a contract extension before he hits free agency are slim. That risk of not being able to sign him on the open market in 2025 is tough to swallow given the assets the Yankees would be sending to San Diego for what might turn out to be one season of Soto.

OF/1B Cody Bellinger: He is considered the top hitter available in free agency after Shohei Ohtani, and he’s coming off a terrific season with the Cubs, so good that he won the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award. But that right there is what worries me about Bellinger. He was Comeback Player of the Year because he had been so terrible the previous three seasons with the Dodgers.

After winning the NL MVP in 2019, Bellinger fell off a cliff. From 2020-22 he played 295 games and hit only 41 homers, drove in 134 runs, and his slash line was a pathetic .203/.272/.376 with an OPS of .648. He was so bad, the Dodgers didn’t even extend a qualifying offer following 2022 and just allowed him to walk.

The Cubs gave him a one-year prove-it deal and he proved that he could still play. Last season he had 27 homers, 96 RBI, slashed .307/.356/.525 with an .881 OPS and he was clutch as he batted .323 with runners in scoring position. But now, he’s trying to parlay that great season into a contract that will probably soar past $150 million and I’m just not on board that Bellinger will continue to hit the way he did in 2023.

There’s too much evidence that it may have been a fluke given the way he hit the three seasons before that. Now, I could be entirely wrong and maybe he’s back to being a great player. If nothing else, he would certainly help the Yankees in the field as he can play center, left and first base at a high level. That’s interesting because Anthony Rizzo will be in the last year of his contract and I can’t imagine the Yankees would bring him back. But I think the Yankees should take a pass on Bellinger.

SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: The Yankees desperately need to upgrade their offense, but there’s no way they can ignore Japan’s best pitcher and they clearly aren’t. It has been well-documented that Cashman traveled to Japan late last season to personally scout Yamamoto and he watched the righty pitch a no-hitter. Since then, the Yankees have been routinely linked to him, though so have the Dodgers, Mets and Red Sox among several teams.

This guy has won Japan’s version of the Cy Young three years running, and his numbers are staggering. His ERA over the past five years is 1.64, including a 1.16 mark in 2023 when he had a ridiculous strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.29.

He will be only 25 years old in 2024, so whichever team lands him will, like Soto, be getting his prime years and for those who think his Japan stats won’t translate to MLB, let me remind you of Ohtani, Yu Darvish, and Masahiro Tanaka, among others, who have come to America and done just fine. There are some scouts who think Yamamoto may be better than all of them (Ohtani as a pitcher only, of course).

It will cost at least $200 million, but imagine if the Yankees rotation had Gerrit Cole, Yamamoto, and the Carlos Rodon who the Yankees thought they were signing as the top three. And after that, depending on who’s still on the team, you round it out with some combination of King, Schmidt, Nestor Cortes, or one of their top prospects making the leap such as Hampton, Warren, Thorpe, Mitch Spence or Clayton Beeter. On paper, that’s pretty good.

OF Jung Hoo Lee: You may not have heard of him, and honestly, neither had I until I started seeing his name pop up recently and looked into him. Here’s what has been said about Lee, and why he might be a perfect fit for the Yankees.

He’s only 25 but has already played seven seasons of pro baseball in Korea and was the league MVP in 2022. He’s a lefty-swinger who can fill either the center or left field holes the Yankees have, and what separates him is his ability to put the ball in play. In seven years, his slash line is .340/.407/.491 with an OPS of .898 and he has struck out just 304 times in 3,947 plate appearances.

Again, admitting I know nothing about him, but if he can replicate the bulk of that performance in MLB, he would be an immediate upgrade as a leadoff hitter while filling an obvious need in the outfield. Plus, he’s going to cost a whole lot less than someone like Soto or Bellinger, which would free up money for the Yankees to pursue other players.

OF Kevin Kiermaier: There’s been plenty of smoke around the 34-year-old center field who remains elite as he just won his fourth Gold Glove in his one season with the Blue Jays. Kiermaier obviously fills the center field hole, but even as a lefty-swinger, I can’t see his offense being much help to a lineup that desperately needs more.

He had a decent season in Toronto as he hit .265 which was his highest average since 2017. For his career he’s a .249/.309/.409 hitter with a .718 OPS and 90 home runs in 1,043 games. A one-year deal to hold the place for Dominguez is fine, but Kiermaier isn’t a guy I’d be focusing on.