by Paul Semendinger
December 21, 2024
***
NOTE - This article was published in the IBWAA's newsletter Here's the Pitch on December 21, 2024.
***
The Next Players Who Could Belong In the Hall of Fame
By Paul Semendinger
***
Last week Dave Parker and Dick Allen were both elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Both had borderline cases. For this article, though I'm just going to focus on Dave Parker's career as a benchmark to see if other players whose careers were similar to Parker's also deserve to be considered for the Hall of Fame in upcoming years.
Dave Parker's career numbers do not overwhelm. Many experts believe that 60 WAR is a fair cutoff for the Hall of Fame. Parker's career WAR was just 40.1. That falls way short. Parker also didn't have the counting stats either. He didn't bat .300, didn't hit 350 homers, didn't have 1,500 runs batted in, and he also didn't have even 2,800 hits.
In Parker's favor are the facts that he did win an MVP. He was also a two-time World Champion and was a seven time All-Star.
Again, to be clear, this article is not intended to knock Dave Parker, one of my favorite players ever. Growing up, even though I was a Yankees fan, I was also a big fan of Dave Parker. In 1979, I convinced my fellow Boy Scouts to make our troop "the cobras" as a tribute to Dave Parker. In 2023, when I ran the Pittsburgh Marathon, I ran it in a Dave Parker jersey. Dave Parker is (again) one of my favorite players of all time.
Using him as a baseline though, opens the discussion for some other players I decided to see what other players currently left out of the Hall of Fame have cases equal to or better than Dave Parker's. To do this, I searched for players whose career WAR was at least 40.1 who also had a least one MVP Award, numerous All-Star game appearances, as well as at least one World Championship. To keep this consistent with the era in which Dave Parker played, I considered only the years 1970 through 1999 in this quick study.
If we take the whole Parker statistical package outlined above, the following are players who could also be considered Hall of Fame worthy.
Keith Hernandez - 60.5 WAR, 1979 NL MVP, 5x All-Star, 2 World Championships
George Foster - 44.5 WAR, 1977 NL MVP, 5x All-Star, 2 World Championships
Thurman Munson - 46.1 WAR, 1976 AL MVP, 7x All-Star, 2 World Championships
Vida Blue - 44.9 WAR, 1971 AL MVP, 6x All-Star, 3 World Championships
In addition, there are three players who come up just short of Parker's 40.1 WAR, but deserve mention:
Kirk Gibson - 38.4 WAR, 1988 NL MVP, No All-Star Games, 2 World Championships
Steve Garvey - 38.0 WAR, 1974 NL MVP, 10x All-Star, 1 World Championship
Boog Powell - 39.1 WAR, 1970 AL MVP, 4x All-Star, 2 World Championships
Finally, there are three players who have not had Hall of Fame support for issues other than their on-field performances:
Jose Canseco - 42.5 WAR, 1988 AL MVP, 6x All-Star, 2 World Championships
Roger Clemens - 138.7 WAR, 1986 AL MVP, 11x All-Star, 2 World Championships
Pete Rose - 79.5 WAR, 1973 NL MVP, 17x All-Star, 3 World Championships
I wonder if (absent of Canseco, Clemens, and Rose, who belong in different discussions) writers will feel that any of the other players' Hall of Fame cases are now made stronger by Dave Parker's inclusion in the Hall of Fame.
To me, I believe Parker's election makes Keith Hernandez and Thurman Munson's cases much stronger. I also think that George Foster, who never received much Hall of Fame support, is now rightfully in that discussion. Finally, I was surprised Vida Blue's candidacy was as strong as it is.
There might be a day in the future where all four of those players are in Cooperstown.
***
Paul Semendinger runs the Yankees site Start Spreading the News. A retired principal, Paul is an educational consultant, author, baseball player (still!), marathon runner, husband, father... and now a grandpa!
And this is why I loathe what the HOF voters have been doing. For every merely very good player you put in, there are a dozen who now have a claim to election. There are 194 players in baseball history with 60+ WAR (i.e., just under 1% all-time). There are 126 in the 50-to-59.9 range (320 total for a top percentage of 1.6%). Then 229 in the 40-to-49.9 category (549 total, 2.7%). I see 1% as the appropriate number with special exceptions, like a Koufax or a manager or someone else who hugely contributed to the game, like a Marvin Miller.
And this is also why everyone in the Hall should be subject to a retention vote every 25, or…
Great article! I love HOF discussions. Parker strikes me as a borderline HOFer.
I like the WAR stat, but as I look at Parker’s career, there are seasons like 1986 when he had 31 home runs, 116 RBI, 117 OPS+, fifth in MVP voting, and only .3 WAR! His defense was evidently pretty brutal, but was it that bad to take away almost all value?
Fun stuff.
Well Paul, now a Grandpa, Baseball has turned the HOF into a joke the last 10 years or so. Dave Parker, IMO does not belong in the Hall. Neither does Harold Baines. Nor Ted Simmons. If Alan Trammell is in, but again he doesn't belong either, why isn't his DP partner, Lou Whitaker in too? Marvin Miller is in, but neither Curt Flood or George Steinbrenner are in (If he doesn't sign guys year after year in those early years, what power does Miller ever really get) ? Why isn't My Captain, Thurman Munson in? You know my feelings on Donald Arthur Mattingly. About the only dead-bang, no doubt correction they made (not counting any Negro League players) is…