My Thoughts On Starters

by Cary Greene

December 3, 2024

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Is there a free agent starting pitcher the Yankees should acquire? If so, who?          

If the rumors are true that Juan Soto isn’t interested in deferred money, then to me that proves that he’s not willing to help a team surround him with other necessary pieces in order to win championships. If this is true, then I’d like to see the Yankees pass on signing Soto and instead go all in on making improvements in multiple areas. Prioritizing the starting rotation and the back end of the bullpen should be Yankees GM Brian Cashman’s top priority this offseason.

Given that Carlos Rodon has become at best a middle of the rotation arm and due to my staunch belief that pitching wins championships, I think it is imperative for the Yankees to add a front of the rotation starter to pair with the staff’s resident ace, Gerrit Cole.

Marcus Stoman, who is still due $18.3 million over the next two seasons, is also going to be very difficult to trade this winter and right now, he’s the team’s fifth (or sixth) starter. If the Yankees want to improve their championship chances, it sure seems like they need to add at least one ace.

Top available starters include Corbin Burnes, Roki Sasaki, Max Fried, Nathan Eovaldi, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd and Justin Verlander. This year’s crop of free agent pitchers is very deep in fact.

It’s widely believed that Hal Steinbrenner wants to keep payroll below the $291 CBT threshold. Corbin Burnes remains the best available ace and MLB Trade Rumors is projecting him to land a $210 million deal for 7-years, with an AAV of $30 million. Meanwhile, Max Fried, also a top shelf ace in his own right, is projected to land a six year, $174 million deal with an AAV of around $29 million. Both Burnes and Fried would be very expensive to sign, so Brian Cashman will likely need to move down the ladder to the next tier of available free agent starters.

Eovaldi is projected to get at least 2-years and $55 million, with an AAV of $27.5 million and Jack Flaherty is in line for a 3-Year deal worth $61 million - placing his AAV at $20 million. Meanwhile, Shane Bieber’s market value ($24.5) makes him very pricey as well. Should the Yankees sign any of these available starters, or should they look still deeper into the marketplace?

Based on Sportrac’s projected market values, Sean Manaea ($16.1 million), Max Scherzer ($15.2 m), Justin Verlander ($13.9 m) and Luis Severino ($14 m) are the other best available starters.

Given that, on November 9th, the Chiba Lotte Marines announced that they will be posting Sasaki, there has been a swarm of teams in hot pursuit of him, the Yankees included. It’s easy to say the Yankees should sign him, but it will be far easier said than done. Therefore, if I’m the Yankees I sign Max Fried while continuing on in the chase for Sasaki.

Despite the balky elbow issues that he’s had over the last two seasons, Fried is a top shelf lefty starter who commands six pitches with pinpoint control. He’s an excellent fit with the Yankees and it makes all the sense in the world to target the most consistently excellent and best available lefty on the market. Doing so is a bit of a gamble, but it’s one I’d take if I was Cashman.

With Fried signed, the Yankees could allocate the remaining $27 million towards rolling the dice on Blake Treinen ($2.4 million) and landing Tanner Scott ($16.4 million) to close. There would still be enough left over to bring back Tommy Kahnle ($5.3 m) and possibly land either Walker Buhler ($3.9 m) or another intriguing reliever.

Unfortunately for the Yankees this offseason, Hal Steinbrenner isn’t going to allocate enough payroll to allow Brian Cashman the luxury of significantly upgrading the offense and the pitching – this offseason for the Yankees is about bargain shopping and perhaps having to roll the dice on a select few high risk/high reward type players while also pulling off a trade or two positionally.

If the Yankees sign Fried, that likely means that Cashman will have to make a trade or two in order to add either a first baseman or a third baseman. Rather than signing a Christian Walker or a Carlos Santana, it might make sense to let the trade winds deliver a corner infielder. It’s also time for the Yankees to give opportunities to in house options and doing precisely that helps the Yankees trim the payroll while also getting younger as a byproduct.