by EJ FaganNovember 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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I’m in Arizona, so naturally I went to my first Arizona Fall League game* and see Caleb Durbin play in person. Here is my very professional scouting report. Unfortunately, he DHed, so I did not see him field.
*Side note: The AZFL uses the balls and strike challenge system, and I was very impressed by how quickly the challenge was resolved. The whole challenge takes less than two seconds. Sign me up for it in the majors tomorrow.
** Second side note: The AZFL rules. Tickets were general admission and super cheap. There were maybe 100 people in the stands for my game. You could sit anywhere and hear everything. Super cool. We might go back for a second game later this week.
First off, Caleb Durbin is short. I know, you can read a height and weight chart too, but it’s incredibly noticeable in person. The dude looks like a little brother who somehow got onto the field. At the same time, he looks very athletic. His pictures make his head and neck look weird, but he’s just jacked. Big legs. Big shoulders. He’s a strong dude.
I’m no swing expert, but Durbin’s swing looks great. He squats down and coils like a pro, both shrinking his strike zone and giving him a real quick swing path. He didn’t make much good contact in my game, but he did leg out a chopped ground ball up the third base line. His swing stood out when compared with a lot of bland lackluster on the field that day. I see why he barely ever strikes out but also takes a lot of walks.
But the real question is: could Durbin start for the 2025 Yankees?
Let’s start with the numbers. Durbin hit .287/.396/.471 at Triple-A with a 9.9% strikeout rate and 29 stolen bases in 82 games. He’s currently killing it in the Arizona Fall League, with a .318/.438/.471 batting line. I wouldn’t read too much into that batting line, because the AZFL is a crazy hitting environment. The more impressive stat is that he has just 5 strikeouts in 112 plate appearances. He’s also leading the league in stolen bases by ten miles with 29 steals against one caught stealing. The next best stealer has 12.
We also have some Statcast data, although no fancy graphics. I downloaded the data on all 276 balls that Durbin put in play last year. Here’s some toplines:
Average exit velocity: 83.8 mph
xwOBA: .280
That’s… not good. For reference, Anthony Volpe in 2024 had an xwOBA of .280 with an average exit velocity of 87.8. He struck out a lot and didn’t draw as many walks, but was a lot more deadly when he did put the ball in play.
So how did Durbin put up such a strong batting line? There are a few things that can cause a player to over perform their xwOBA. The first is pure luck. Maybe Durbin just had some extra balls fall in for hits in 2024. I’m skeptical of that explanation because of how great he was in 2023 and in the Arizona Fall League for two years in a row.
The second is speed and hustle. Durbin certainly has enough of both to turn a lot of singles into doubles. But, looking at his batted ball outcomes, he doesn’t have a ton of infield hits. He put 131 balls in play with an xBA less than .150 and got 9 hits (.068 BA). But, a quick glance at the (Slug - xSlug) leaderboards shows a lot of fast contact hitters slugging 50 points or more above their expected numbers.
The third is hitting them where they ain’t. Maybe a player either has a knack for hitting the ball between infield holes or is really hard to defend. Players who hit singles the opposite way often buy themselves more hits. It’s tough to tell from the data if this is what Durbin is doing, but I’m skeptical that it can be replicated in the majors.
The fourth is pulling a lot of line drive home runs right down the line. Statcast doesn’t know how close to the foul pole a given ball in play is, but someone like Isaac Parades can over perform by hitting shorter home runs right down the line. Durbin managed to hit 10 home runs in 82 games this regular season, which isn’t half bad. I’d love to see a spray chart.
He does occasionally hit the ball hard enough to generate power. Here’s a histogram of his exit velocity. While he hits a lot of weak contact, he does have the ability to barrel the ball in a way that someone like Luis Arraez does not. I wonder if we’ll see a bimodal distribution of bat speed, where Durbin modulates his bat speed depending on the situation.
Finally, let’s talk defense. I saw Durbin at DH, but he’s played all over the field in the minors. He has 151 games at 2nd, 67 at 3rd, 42 at short and a handful in the outfield. I can’t find any real scouting reports on his defense. Eric Longenhagen says he looked “fine” at both second and third in the AZFL, but I’d like to see more scouting reports. My hunch is that he’ll be better a second (how many short third basemen can you name?), but I don’t have much to base it on.
Bottom Line
Man, I don’t know. I’m a big believer in weird baseball players. You can add all of Durbin’s pieces up and draw a picture of a successful starting second or third baseman. Both Boone and Cashman have hyped him up a little bit in interviews this Fall. But he could also just be a guy who is thriving on weak contact and poor minor league defenses.
Can he maintain a rock bottom strikeout rate in the majors? I don’t know. Maybe he’s a 14% strikeout rate guy instead of a 10% guy, which would pretty much turn him into a faster Alex Verdugo. But maybe that plays! There’s no way to know without giving the guy a shot, but I’m nervous about creating a massive black hole on the roster if he doesn’t have the major league juice. I’ll be watching the Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America scouting reports very closely.
