My Offseason Plan: Ethan Semendinger

By: Ethan Semendinger

December 10th, 2024

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I was waiting on constructing my offseason plan until after Juan Soto's decision. Now that he's gone, this is what I would do.

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The Current Yankees 2025 Team:

*Note: As of the night of December 9th, 2024

The Yankees front office, namely general manager Brian Cashman, has a lot of work to do in order to set this team up for a successful 2025 season. As of right now, there is no set player at first base, second base, third base, left field, and center field. Additionally, a rotation spot could be up for grabs, as well as a few potential openings in the bullpen. However, at the current moment, these are who are on the Yankees 2025 40-Man Roster, barring any moves. (Players with asterisks would be expected to make the current Opening Day Roster.)

Catchers: J.C. Escarra, Carlos Narvaez, Jesus Rodriguez, Jose Trevino*, Austin Wells*

Infielders: Oswaldo Cabrera*, Jazz Chisholm Jr.*, Caleb Durbin*, DJ LeMahieu*, Oswald Peraza*, Ben Rice, Jorbit Vivas, Anthony Volpe*

Outfielders: Jasson Dominguez*, Trent Grisham*, Aaron Judge*, Everson Pereira*

Designated Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton*

Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole*, Nestor Cortes*, Luis Gil*, Carlos Rodon*, Clarke Schmidt*, Marcus Stroman*

Relief Pitchers: Clayton Beeter, JT Brubaker*, Jake Cousins*, Yerry De Los Santos, Scott Effross*, Yoendrys Gomez*, Ian Hamilton*, Mark Leiter Jr.*, Will Warren, Luke Weaver*

That's a team.

This is how I would fix it.

First though, I am planning under the assumption that the Yankees are willing to play with a $300,000,000 payroll (in terms of the competitive balance payroll, not actual salary). I then have created a spreadsheet- which I will share at the end- based upon current player contracts, arbitration figures from MLBTR, and the assumption that all pre-arbitration players will make $750,000.

Without further ago, let's move on to my...

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Free Agency Targets:

My Deals:

Corbin Burnes: 7 Years/$224,000,000 ($32,000,000 AAV)

Max Fried: 6 Years/$162,000,000 ($27,000,000 AAV)

My entire offseason rests on the Yankees making two deals in free agency for the two best remaining starting pitchers in Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. That's it. And, that's all that they would need to do for my plan.

Corbin Burnes is coming off a season in the American League East (with the Baltimore Orioles) in which he started 32 games, pitched 194.1 innings, had a 2.92 ERA/128 ERA+, threw 181 strikeouts, collected a 15-9 record, and accumulated +3.4 bWAR. This performance also earned him a top-5 finish in the AL Cy Young award (his 5th straight season landing in the top-8 for his league) and his 4 straight All-Star appearance.

Since he was given a chance as a full-time starter in 2021, while with the Milwaukee Brewers, he has proven himself to be one of the games best in a rotation, and there is no reason to believe this would stop any time soon. For the Yankees, he'd slot in as their number 2 pitcher behind Gerrit Cole as they'd look to create a rotation that rivals the mid-1990's Atlanta Braves (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz) and/or the mid-2010's Detroit Tigers (Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello).

According to MLBTR, Burnes' expected contract is for 7-years at $200 Million. I'd offer a considerable amount more with a 7/$224M offer, as their general expectations have been low for signings so far this offseason. (They expected 5/$160M for Snell, who got 5/$182M from the Dodgers.)

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After Burnes, the next signing would be for Max Fried. He's coming off a solid year with the Atlanta Braves, in which he started 29 games, pitched 174.1 innings, had a 3.25 ERA/128 ERA+, threw 166 strikeouts, collected a 11-10 record, and accumulated +3.5 bWAR. This performance earned him his second career All-Star appearance.

Fried first came into the MLB in limited time between 2017 and 2018 and he first got to show his stuff as a consistent starter in 2019. His 2020 season (in which he went 7-0) really rose his stock, and he's been a great rotation piece even in his mediocre seasons since. This also comes with upside that he could provide Cy Young caliber stuff, as he showed in 2022 when he finished 2nd behind Sandy Alcantara.

According to MLBTR, Fried's expected contract is for 6-years at $156 Million. I'd offer a 6/$162M deal to round out the value to match what Carlos Rodon signed for, as they're similar players will really high upside and some recent injury concerns.

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These two moves would accompany my keeping around Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt to be my 1, 4, and 5 guys in the rotation, around Burnes and Fried being my 2 and 3. Additionally, I would keep around Nestor Cortes to be my 6th rotation arm/long reliever. (See below for what I'd do with Marcus Stroman and Luis Gil.)

Outside of the rotation, I'm not going to waste too much time considering moves for bullpen help. It's an area in which I trust Brian Cashman to find cheap talent. However, I could be talked into a player like Jose Leclerc, given that under my plan the Yankees after these moves (and two more below) have an additional $8 Million (or so) to spend before hitting the $300 Million CBT limit.

Speaking of...

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Trade Targets:

My Deals:

Chicago Cubs: Cody Bellinger ($27.5M) for Marcus Stroman ($18.5M)+

Houston Astros: Kyle Tucker ($15.8M) for Luis Gil ($750K) & Spencer Jones (MiLB)++

As I wrote about last week, I think the Yankees could serve as a great team to match-up with the Chicago Cubs in their desires to shed some payroll via a trade of Cody Bellinger. If you wish to read more, you can check out that article, here. In short, I think Cody Bellinger as a left-handed bat in Yankee Stadium, and with a player option for 2026 is a prime candidate to have a break-out season if he was traded here. He's experienced a tough media market from his time in Los Angeles with the Dodgers, and he provides the Yankees versatility as either a first baseman or center fielder, both needs for the Yankees to address.

It'd be an increase in about $9M in payroll (or about $8M in CBT) from Marcus Stroman, but Bellinger would fit my plans much better and it keeps the Yankees from overpaying for an aging (or already aged) first baseman in free agency.

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My other move would be to pry Kyle Tucker away from the Houston Astros. In the wake of losing Juan Soto, rumors started to fly that he could be made available, and I'd be all over making this deal happen with only two stipulations: no Jasson Dominguez (as he's my center fielder) and that I'd need to be able to have talks prior to the trade with Tucker and his agent (who is NOT Scott Boras!) to have an extension in place before the trade was finalized.

Kyle Tucker is going into his age-28 season, and he's coming off a 78 game season where he hit to a .289/.408/.585 triple-slash with a .993 OPS/181 OPS+ with 23 home runs, 49 RBI's, and a +4.7 bWAR alongside positive defensive and baserunning metrics. Though he missed 79 games with a right shin injury (from early June to early September), he also was an All-Star for the 3rd straight season and he was worth 5+ bWAR each year from 2021-2023. I'm not concerned about his injury last season.

Ultimately, the Yankees lost Juan Soto. However, getting Kyle Tucker would be the best possible option as a consolation prize, even if it meant giving up the reigning AL Rookie of the Year (Gil), their number 2 prospect (Spencer Jones), and more. The Houston Astros are clearly worried they won't be able/be willing to match what he'd get on the open market, and are signaling how they'd like to get a Juan Soto-esque package before his final year. That being said, a package built around Gil and Jones (and then some) would be very similar to a package built around Michael King and Drew Thorpe. (Especially if the Astros are also willing to move on from Framber Valdez. This deal would immediately replace Gil in Valdez's rotation spot.)

With the Yankees just having made a similar trade and losing the player in free agency, before doing so again, I'd demand an extension be in place before shipping out the rest of the Yankees goods for Tucker. My idea would be to offer a 10-year/$375 Million deal, starting in 2026. This would instantly become the 4th biggest contract ever by overall value, and 7th by AAV, and I can't see how it'd be turned down.

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My 2025 Yankees Team:

Here is a brief overview of my 2025 Yankees team:

I'd obviously be leaving some room for improvement in the bullpen, but the everyday line-up and starting rotation would be tops in the MLB. Just think about this 1-5 and 1-9:

1. Gerrit Cole

2. Corbin Burnes

3. Max Fried

4. Carlos Rodon

5. Clarke Schmidt

with Nestor Cortes as the 6th man, and

1. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (LHH, 3B)

2. Aaron Judge (RHH, RF)

3. Kyle Tucker (LHH, LF)

4. Giancarlo Stanton (RHH, DH)

5. Cody Bellinger (LHH, 1B)

6. Jasson Dominguez (SWITCH, CF)

7. Austin Wells (LHH, C)

8. Caleb Durbin (RHH, 2B)

9. Anthony Volpe (RHH, SS)

with a bench of Trent Grisham, Jose Trevino, Oswaldo Cabrera, DJ LeMahieu

By no means would this be a perfect team, and the bullpen does still need some serious work.

But, I think in just 4 moves (of all which seem feasible), the Yankees could completely revamp this team, create a dominant rotation, balance out their line-up, improve their team defense and baserunning, and set themselves up for another run at the World Series.

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What are your thoughts on my plan?