Max Fried: My Reactions

by EJ Fagan

December 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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The Yankees have signed Braves pitcher Max Fried to a massive 8-year, $218 million ($27 million AAV) contract.

Fried is an elite pitcher. His career ERA since the beginning of the 2020 season is well below 3.00. He doesn’t pitch big innings, but no one does these days.

But, the way he gets there is important. Here’s what his 2024 Statcast page looks like:

I’d ignore the xERA. He had a weird nerve injury mid-season and appears to have come back too soon in the middle of a playoff race, allowing an ERA over 4.00 for the month after his return. He was lights out before and after.

His six pitch arsenal feels like a throwback. He actually throws more four seamers than two seamers, with a curveball as his primary strikeout pitch and a deadly sinker/change combo. He has the modern cutter/sweeper/slider in his back pocket as well.

Fried is a ground ball machine. He’s Good Clay Holmes, but as a starter. Batters cannot hit the ball hard against him. The Yankees have had a lot of fly ball hitters struggle to limit home runs in Yankee Stadium, and Fried feels like a response.

A few quick thoughts:

• It’s an overpay. Pitching has been crazy expensive this offseason for reasons that are a bit beyond me. Blake Snell couldn’t even get a long term contract last season, and now a 31 year-old Max Fried is demanding an 8-year deal. The Yankees probably spread it out to keep the average annual value down a bit compared with Snell’s. Still, this one could hurt on the back half. Fried is now under contract for longer than even Aaron Judge.

  
  

• The Yankees better improve their infield defense. If they run out the non-Volpe defense that we saw in the playoffs, Fried is going to allow some runs. I think much better defense is coming though.

  
  

• The Yankees are about the trade a starting pitcher. They have 7 starters at the moment, plus a fine depth piece in JT Brubaker. Given the cost of starting pitching in free agency right now (see Fried, Max), they should be able to wheel and deal for hitters, or at least shed themselves of Stroman’s contract. I do not think it is wise to instead convert Schmidt or Cortes to a bullpen role. The winter meetings is trade season, so for all we know the trade is already being negotiated. I’ll probably write a post tonight about what trades we could see.

  
  

• The Yankees now have the best starting pitching in the American League. We’ll see what the final staff looks like (Crochet and Sasaki still loom), but they’re now clearly ahead of Kansas City and Seattle.

  
  

• Sometimes reporting works! We heard about Fried and the Yankees having a great Zoom call a week ago. And it turned out to be a sign of things to come.