Marcus Stroman for Ke'Bryan Hayes?

By Ethan Semendinger

December 19th, 2024

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When the Yankees didn't use Marcus Stroman in the 2024 postseason, it was likely a sign of things to come. Here's how they could trade him.

Note: If you've already read my other two articles in this series, (here and here) you may choose to skip the top section on Marcus Stroman.

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Looking At: Marcus Stroman

The Yankees signed Marcus Stroman to a 2-Year/$37 Million contract ahead of the 2024 season. With one of those years already in the books, they are on the hook for Marcus Stroman at an $18.5 Million salary in 2025. Stroman's contract also includes a vesting player option at an additional $18.5 Million for the 2026 season. However, it is unclear if Marcus Stroman has already met the requirements for that player option to vest.

According to some sources, like Cot's Baseball Contracts, Marcus Stroman needed to pitch 140 innings in 2024 to reach the milestone. If that is the case, then Stroman has achieved a player option for 2026, as he pitched 154.2 innings this past season.

Other sources, like Spotrac, indicate that Marcus Stroman needs to pitch 140 innings in 2025 to earn his player option for the 2026 season.

This discrepancy in reporting contract details makes it a bit difficult to parse out what the value of Marcus Stroman on the trading market could be. Thus, in this post, I will construct two trades given the variability of Stroman's worth.

All that aside, if we look at Marcus Stroman's numbers in 2024 and compare them to the prior 3 seasons, there is an obvious trend in the data: he is declining, and he is more likely than not, a league-average starting pitcher (or a little bit worse) moving forward. This can be clearly seen through looking at his ERA and ERA+:

• 2021 - 3.02 ERA, 133 ERA+ (with NYM)

• 2022 - 3.50 ERA, 119 ERA+ (with CHC)

• 2023 - 3.95 ERA, 108 ERA+ (with CHC)

• 2024 - 4.31 ERA, 95 ERA+ (with NYY)

As bad as this may look for Marcus Stroman's projections going forward, that isn't to say there isn't a market for a player like him. Over the last 4 seasons, Stroman has also displayed consistency in availability. Here are his starts and innings pitched:

• 2021 - 33 Starts, 179.0 Innings Pitched

• 2022 - 25 Starts, 138.2 Innings Pitched

• 2023 - 25 Starts, 136.2 Innings Pitched

• 2024 - 29 Starts, 154.2 Innings Pitched

So, what could a league-average (give or take) starting pitcher with 25-ish starts of 5-ish innings a piece worth on an $18 Million contract over the next year (or two)?

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Trade Target: Ke'Bryan Hayes

A few days ago, my father brought to my attention a potential target for the Yankees to play third base in 2025 (and beyond). He then wrote about this player. Ke'Bryan Hayes, yesterday on the blog.

As a "Please don't sign Bregman" guy myself, the idea of Hayes made me look into his stats. And, I will say, I am interested for the right price. (I'm also a big fan of storylines, and the Yankees bringing in two former Yankees kids in Bellinger and Hayes just sounds fun!)

Ke'Bryan Hayes has been in the major leagues for parts of 5 seasons, all with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He made his MLB debut during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, and a very strong 24 game sample (he hit to a 201 OPS+ over 95 PA's) helped to elevate his prospect stock exponentially heading into his rookie 2021 campaign. During these two seasons, Hayes did the following:

• 2020: 24 Games, .376/.442/.682/1.124 (201 OPS+), 32 Hits, 5 HR's, 11 RBI's, +1.9 bWAR

• 2021: 96 Games, .257/.316/.373/.689 (86 OPS+), 93 Hits, 6 HR's, 31 RBI's, +2.3 bWAR

This 120 game sample where Hayes showed off his high offensive potential and solid defensive value was good enough for the Pittsburgh Pirates to offer and sign Hayes to an 8-year/$70 Million ($8.75M AAV) extension- buying out 2 pre-arbitration and all 3 arbitration years- ahead of the 2022 season. This contract runs through 2029 and includes a club option at $12M (with a $6M buyout) for 2030. As this was a front-loaded contract, Hayes is set to make $7M per year from 2025-2027 and $8M per year in 2028 and 2029, for a total of $37M+$6M guaranteed for the next 4 seasons. (And up to $49M for the next 5 seasons.)

So, how has Ke'Bryan Hayes done so far, three years into this extension? Here are his recent stats:

• 2022: 136 Games, .244/.314/.345/.659 (88 OPS+), 123 Hits, 7 HR's, 41 RBI's, +4.4 bWAR

• 2023: 124 Games, .271/.309/.453/.762 (103 OPS+), 134 Hits, 15 HR's, 61 RBI's, +4.0 bWAR

• 2024: 96 Games, .233/.283/.290/.573 (61 OPS+), 85 Hits, 4 HR's, 25 RBI's, +0.8 bWAR

His 2024 season was shortened due to two different IL stints with back problems, which started in mid-May (for about 2 weeks) and then came back in mid-August (through the end of the season). A similar story happened in 2023, where Hayes missed around 2 months with back inflammation from late-June through early August. However, the Pirates front office is confident that the 27-year-old will be able to be ready in time for the 2025 season. These injuries also greatly explain why Hayes saw a sudden drop-off in performance from 2023 to 2024.

So, is he a good target for the Yankees?

On one hand, Hayes is not owed a ton of money, is still young, and is under a good amount of control. He also has a gold glove (2023) in his trophy case and- when healthy- is a league average hitter (or better).

On the other hand, Hayes has missed considerable time in 2 straight seasons with back problems as a mid-20 year-old, and he's coming off a season that was only slightly better offensively than DJ LeMahieu's 2024 campaign (who had a 51 OPS+).

It's a tricky situation, but one I think I have a good answer for.

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The Trade:

Note: My trade proposals are not rooted in anything other than my own personal gut feeling about trade value. Please do not consider this to be anything more than a basic framework and model.

For the Yankees, they need a third baseman if they want to put together the best- and most natural- infield defense possible. This means Jazz Chisholm will play second base in 2025. Additionally, I fully believe that a long-term commitment to a player like Alex Bregman would be a disaster move. However, the trade market is slim pickings (I also don't want Nolan Arenado, nor does he want to come to the Yankees). But, the Yankees could match-up well in a trade (for multiple reasons) with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Let me explain my trade proposal:

NYY TRADES: Marcus Stroman, Everson Pereira, Oswald Peraza

PIT TRADES: Ke'Bryan Hayes, David Bednar, Isiah Kiner-Falefa

I've been advocating for the Yankees to trade for David Bednar for a few years now, and I think this is the perfect time. He's coming off a down-season (5.77 ERA), but he is a prime candidate to return to form, especially if he could be used in a non-closer role as a 7th/8th inning guy behind Devin Williams, and with Luke Weaver. The Yankees have fixed other Pirates relievers in recent history (see: Clay Holmes), and as a fellow Lafayette College alumnus, I also am biased in wanting to see a fellow Leopard wear the Yankees pinstripes. His contract will also only get more expensive through his final two arbitration years, and the Pirates are not a team that often spends a lot of money on relief arms.

Additionally, I think Isiah Kiner-Falefa (IKF) would be a great bench-role player for the Yankees moving forward. He had a good 2022 season in the Bronx (+2.9 bWAR) and had a great half-season with the Blue Jays in 2024 (+3.2 bWAR). He also provides some protection behind Hayes, as a guy the Yankees know he can play third base. Outside of that, his positional versatility matches well with Oswaldo Cabrera to allow the Yankees a super-utility left-handed bat (Cabrera) and right-handed bat (IKF). He's also set to be the third highest salary on the Pirates in 2025.

However, the biggest reason these two are my main targets, in addition to Hayes, is because of money. David Bednar is set to make $6.6 Million in his 2nd year of arbitration, and IKF is set to make $7.5 Million in the final year of a 2-Year/$15 Million deal he signed with Toronto ahead of the 2024 season. Combine this with Ke'Bryan Hayes' $7 Million salary, and the Yankees would be taking on $21.1 Million in contracts for the 2025 season, and an overall total of around $67 Million (between Hayes' remaining contract and about $10M for Bednar's 3rd arbitration year).

This matches incredibly well with Marcus Stroman's $18.5 Million contract for 2025, along with the pre-arbitration rookie contracts of Everson Pereira and Oswald Peraza (both making $750K). In total, the Pirates save $1.1 Million in 2025 salary alone and about $40 Million over the next few years.

The Pirates would be getting back a veteran 5th rotation arm (they only have 4 listed on their depth chart) in Stroman, a recent promising former Top-100 (in 2022 and 2023) infield prospect in Peraza, and a recent promising near Top-100 outfield prospect in Pereira.

Money is always the biggest issue for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and this deal would not only even out for salary this upcoming season, but also clear some (needed) room long-term to potentially sign players like Oneil Cruz and Paul Skenes to extensions.

To make a long-story short:

• The Yankees take a decent sized risk on Hayes with his contract and injury history, get a suitable back-up in IKF, and get a relief arm coming off a bad year in Bednar.

• The Pirates get a veteran rotation arm towards the end of his career and two highly touted former prospects that don't have a clear path with the Yankees.

(For what it's worth, when running this trade through BaseballTradeValues, the Yankees get -1.6 MTV and the Pirates get +1.3 MTV.)

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What do you think? Would you take this deal?