Marcus Stroman for Jordan Montgomery?

By Ethan Semendinger

December 4, 2024

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When the Yankees didn't use Marcus Stroman in the 2024 postseason, it was likely a sign of things to come. Here's how they could trade him.

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Looking At: Marcus Stroman

The Yankees signed Marcus Stroman to a 2-Year/$37 Million contract ahead of the 2024 season. With one of those years already in the books, they are on the hook for Marcus Stroman at an $18.5 Million salary in 2025. Stroman's contract also includes a vesting player option at an additional $18.5 Million for the 2026 season. However, it is unclear if Marcus Stroman has already met the requirements for that player option to vest.

According to some sources, like Cot's Baseball Contracts, Marcus Stroman needed to pitch 140 innings in 2024 to reach the milestone. If that is the case, then Stroman has achieved a player option for 2026, as he pitched 154.2 innings this past season.

Other sources, like Spotrac, indicate that Marcus Stroman needs to pitch 140 innings in 2025 to earn his player option for the 2026 season.

This discrepancy in reporting contract details makes it a bit difficult to parse out what the value of Marcus Stroman on the trading market could be. Thus, in this post, I will construct two trades given the variability of Stroman's worth.

All that aside, if we look at Marcus Stroman's numbers in 2024 and compare them to the prior 3 seasons, there is an obvious trend in the data: he is declining, and he is more likely than not, a league-average starting pitcher (or a little bit worse) moving forward. This can be clearly seen through looking at his ERA and ERA+:

• 2021 - 3.02 ERA, 133 ERA+ (with NYM)

• 2022 - 3.50 ERA, 119 ERA+ (with CHC)

• 2023 - 3.95 ERA, 108 ERA+ (with CHC)

• 2024 - 4.31 ERA, 95 ERA+ (with NYY)

As bad as this may look for Marcus Stroman's projections going forward, that isn't to say there isn't a market for a player like him. Over the last 4 seasons, Stroman has also displayed consistency in availability. Here are his starts and innings pitched:

• 2021 - 33 Starts, 179.0 Innings Pitched

• 2022 - 25 Starts, 138.2 Innings Pitched

• 2023 - 25 Starts, 136.2 Innings Pitched

• 2024 - 29 Starts, 154.2 Innings Pitched

So, what could a league-average (give or take) starting pitcher with 25-ish starts of 5-ish innings a piece worth on an $18 Million contract over the next year (or two)?

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Trade Target: Jordan Montgomery

Jordan Montgomery had a tumultuous tenure as a New York Yankees starting pitcher during his 6 years in pinstripes. It started off with a great rookie campaign in the MLB in 2017 and then ended with a trade deadline move to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022. Unfortunately for Montgomery's time in pinstripes, his 2018, 2019, and 2020 seasons were all short lived due to injury, however he rebuilt a lot of value in 2021 and through the deadline in 2022, showing he could get away from his injury history...only for the Yankees to go around and trade him for a player who was injured (Harrison Bader).

In the intervening years, Montgomery floated between the St. Louis Cardinals (2022 deadline-2023 deadline), Texas Rangers (the rest of 2023), and Arizona Diamondbacks (2024-present). While with the Rangers, Montgomery was an instrumental part of their 2023 run towards winning the World Series. However, he and his agent took a while to sign a contract after this success and he wound up taking a 1-Year/$25 Million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks on March 29th ahead of the 2024 season. This deal also included a player option for a second year at another $25 Million in 2025.

On November 1st, Jordan Montgomery exercised his player option for 2025. However, this came after the general manager of the Diamondbacks, Mike Hazen, had some choice comments to the media about Montgomery, how bad his contract was, and how poorly he had pitched in 2024. Though the GM and pitcher have met since the comments, there is a lot of speculation that Montgomery could be on the trade market, and for cheap.

To set the stage, however, let's look at the past 4 years for Jordan Montgomery:

• 2021 - 30 Starts, 157.1 Innings Pitched, 3.83 ERA, 112 ERA+ (with NYY)

• 2022 - 32 Starts, 178.1 Innings Pitched, 3.48 ERA, 113 ERA+ (with NYY & STL)

• 2023 - 32 Starts, 188.2 Innings Pitched, 3.20 ERA, 136 ERA+ (with STL & TEX)

• 2024 - 25 Starts, 117 Innings Pitched, 6.23 ERA, 67 ERA+ (with ARZ)

If you don't believe that 2024 is a sign of things to come, Montgomery could be a very worthwhile pitcher to consider trading for. Keep in mind, he also signed just 3 weeks ahead of his 2024 debut and he missed all of spring training. He also had a knee injury that sidelined him for most of July.

However, upon returning from injury, Montgomery kept up his lackluster performance, posting a 5.96 ERA over 51.1 innings in his final 8 starts of the year.

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The Trade:

Note: My trade proposals are not rooted in anything other than my own personal gut feeling about trade value. Please do not consider this to be anything more than a basic framework and model.

It would be a big risk for the Yankees to willingly take on a player who was considerably below average last season, especially one who is on a more expensive contract. However, this is the give-and-take that is necessary to trade players with less than perfect contracts.

That being said, I think both players have clear pros and cons with their deals. Marcus Stroman has the better track record and 2024, however his deal could be for 2 Years/$37 Million. Jordan Montgomery would be only a 1 year player who has prior success in Yankee Stadium (and is a left-handed pitcher), however his contract for 2025 is more expensive and his 2024 is cause for a lot of concern.

I'd argue that Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery have very similar, if not equal value in a trade. Potentially I think the Diamondbacks could add a mid-tier prospect to round out a deal to look similar to the following:

NYY TRADE: Marcus Stroman

ARZ TRADE: Jordan Montgomery & Yu-Min Lin (#7 Prospect, LHP)

Would you accept this deal?

(Spoiler Alert: I have another idea, to be posted Friday morning.)