By Ethan Semendinger
December 6, 2024
***
When the Yankees didn't use Marcus Stroman in the 2024 postseason, it was likely a sign of things to come. Here's how they could trade him.
Note: If you've already read my article from Wednesday, you may choose to skip the top section on Marcus Stroman.
Looking At: Marcus Stroman
The Yankees signed Marcus Stroman to a 2-Year/$37 Million contract ahead of the 2024 season. With one of those years already in the books, they are on the hook for Marcus Stroman at an $18.5 Million salary in 2025. Stroman's contract also includes a vesting player option at an additional $18.5 Million for the 2026 season. However, it is unclear if Marcus Stroman has already met the requirements for that player option to vest.
According to some sources, like Cot's Baseball Contracts, Marcus Stroman needed to pitch 140 innings in 2024 to reach the milestone. If that is the case, then Stroman has achieved a player option for 2026, as he pitched 154.2 innings this past season.
Other sources, like Spotrac, indicate that Marcus Stroman needs to pitch 140 innings in 2025 to earn his player option for the 2026 season.
This discrepancy in reporting contract details makes it a bit difficult to parse out what the value of Marcus Stroman on the trading market could be. Thus, in this post, I will construct two trades given the variability of Stroman's worth.
All that aside, if we look at Marcus Stroman's numbers in 2024 and compare them to the prior 3 seasons, there is an obvious trend in the data: he is declining, and he is more likely than not, a league-average starting pitcher (or a little bit worse) moving forward. This can be clearly seen through looking at his ERA and ERA+:
2021 - 3.02 ERA, 133 ERA+ (with NYM)
2022 - 3.50 ERA, 119 ERA+ (with CHC)
2023 - 3.95 ERA, 108 ERA+ (with CHC)
2024 - 4.31 ERA, 95 ERA+ (with NYY)
As bad as this may look for Marcus Stroman's projections going forward, that isn't to say there isn't a market for a player like him. Over the last 4 seasons, Stroman has also displayed consistency in availability. Here are his starts and innings pitched:
2021 - 33 Starts, 179.0 Innings Pitched
2022 - 25 Starts, 138.2 Innings Pitched
2023 - 25 Starts, 136.2 Innings Pitched
2024 - 29 Starts, 154.2 Innings Pitched
So, what could a league-average (give or take) starting pitcher with 25-ish starts of 5-ish innings a piece worth on an $18 Million contract over the next year (or two)?
Trade Target: Cody Bellinger
With his MLB career starting in Los Angeles in 2017, Cody Bellinger broke onto the scene in a huge way en route to winning the National League Rookie of the Year Award while playing (mostly) first base for the Dodgers. He followed this performance up with another great year in 2018, and then a move to the outfield in 2019 matched up with a career year in which he won the National League MVP. In those first three seasons, Bellinger put up the following stats:
2017: 132 Games, .267/.352/.581/.933 (143 OPS+), 128 Hits, 39 HR's, 97 RBI's, 3.9 bWAR
2018: 162 Games, .260/.343/.470/.814 (120 OPS+), 145 Hits, 25 HR's, 76 RBI's, 4.2 bWAR
2019: 156 Games, .305/.406/.629/1.035 (167 OPS+), 170 Hits, 47 HR's, 115 RBI's, 8.6 bWAR
However, Bellinger had a rough go of it to end his Dodgers tenure over his final three seasons in L.A. This started with a fine COVID-season, but he fell apart in 2021 while winding up on the IL with 3 different injuries, and ended with a very disappointing 2022 campaign. Here were his stats:
2020: 56 Games, .239/.333/.455/.789 (112 OPS+), 51 Hits, 12 HR's, 30 RBI's, 1.5 bWAR
2021: 95 Games, .165/.240/.302/.542 (44 OPS+), 52 Hits, 10 HR's, 36 RBI's, -1.7 bWAR
2022: 144 Games, .210/.265/.389/.654 (81 OPS+), 106 Hits, 19 HR's, 68 RBI's, 1.4 bWAR
Once he became a free agent following his disappointing 3 final years in L.A., Bellinger ended up taking a 1-year "prove-it" deal with the Chicago Cubs for 2023. This turned out to be a great thing for him as he signed another deal with the Chicago Cubs, this time a 3-year deal with 2 opt-outs. Before signing this deal, Cody Bellinger was linked with the New York Yankees as a potential free agent target, but ultimately other moves (i.e. trading for Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and a different former-Dodger in Alex Verdugo) made it hard to find room for him in pinstripes. In Chicago, Bellinger has regained some stock while hitting to the following:
2023: 130 Games, .307/.356/.525/.881 (139 OPS+), 153 Hits, 26 HR's, 97 RBI's, 4.4 bWAR
2024: 130 Games, .266/.325/.426/.751 (111 OPS+), 137 Hits, 18 HR's, 78 RBI's, 2.2 bWAR
Obviously, Cody Bellinger did not believe his 2024 performance would get him paid handsomely, and he decided not to opt-out of his remaining two years of contract at 2 years/$53.3 Million. This contract also includes another opt-out at the end of 2025. This is a cause for both concern and optimism for teams looking to trade for his services.
On one hand, if Bellinger has a great year, it is likely that he will test the free agent market again as a budding 30-year old with a decent track record. Whoever trades for him will be hoping that he has a great year, but not be excited by the fact that he will only get more expensive if this happens. Trading for one year of an expensive player coming off an okay/fine season is not going to net back a huge return.
On the other hand, if Bellinger has another decent/fine season (or worse), there seems to be little chance he'd test the free agent market early, and the team trading for him will be stuck with a bad contract for another season.
The Trade:
Note: My trade proposals are not rooted in anything other than my own personal gut feeling about trade value. Please do not consider this to be anything more than a basic framework and model.
For the Yankees, they pose a very interesting problem in having needs in both center field and first base. Conveniently, these are the two positions Bellinger plays- and plays well.
He could be a perfect option to play center field to start the 2025 season and give Jasson Dominguez more time to develop his defensive chops. And then, once Dominguez is ready for full-time duty in center field, Bellinger could easily move to first base. (This would also give time for the Yankees to see if DJ LeMahieu can regain any positive value with the bat as a first baseman to start the season, as well as giving Oswaldo Cabrera some reps there as well to see if he can be a full-time starter.)
On another note, the Chicago Cubs also have a solid second baseman in Nico Hoerner, who could also be available via trade. He's signed with 2 years and $23.3 Million remaining on his contract. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 145 Games, a .279/.337/.387/.724 quadruple slash, a 102 OPS+, 156 Hits, 9 HR's, 57 RBI's, and 4.3 bWAR as a fine hitter and great defender. (For reference, Gleyber Torres had an average of 2.9 bWAR over his last 3 seasons.) He is coming off flexor surgery, which is a concern, but let's pretend his medicals are fine and he's ready for spring training on time.
So, let's make two deals: one for just Bellinger and one for Bellinger and Hoerner.
Trade No.1:
NYY TRADE: Marcus Stroman, Yoendrys Gomez (#19 Prospect, RHP)
CHC TRADE: Cody Bellinger
I don't believe Stroman for Bellinger is a wild trade. The Cubs want to shed salary, have budding outfield prospects who need reps, and could use another starting pitcher. The Yankees can handle a bigger contract and could use Bellinger's left-handed bat and defensive versatility well. It seems like a perfect match, but I added in Yoendrys Gomez as a flier to give the Cubs another MLB-ready prospect arm, though one who is likely a reliever (and who I don't believe a lot in).
Trade No.2:
NYY TRADE: Marcus Stroman, Spencer Jones (#2 Prospect, OF), Cade Smith (#12 Prospect, RHP)
CHC TRADE: Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner
I do believe that Hoerner would be another great fit for the Yankees. He would round out an amazing infield defense and solve the 2B/3B problem, while keeping the Yankees away from overspending on a free agent option (like Alex Bregman) or via trade (like Nolan Arenado). He would also keep the Yankees from any long-term commitment while keeping Jorbit Vivas as a potential future infield option. For his value, the Cubs get the Yankees second best prospect and an upgrade in pitching prospect.
For reference, Jim Bowden put together a trade of Orlando Arcia, Jarred Kelenic, and Hurston Waldrep for Bellinger and Hoerner, while the Cubs needed to eat money on Bellinger. I think my deal is very similar in value.
(A Quick Aside: As a Devils fan, I think it'd be cool to have another Nico- the only one in MLB history, from what I can find- to root for, in addition to the Devils' captain Nico Hischier.)
---
Would you accept either of these deals?
Yeah Ethan. Those were the two!
It appears to be a fait accompli to acquire Bellinger, but would rather they first try something with the Cardinals for Arenado. If expanded to include Helmsley, Happy Days.
Improving the infield defense must be a top off season priority. Adding Arenado and moving Jazz to his more natural second base will go a long way towards that. Sign the controversial, on this board at least, Santana or trade with Texas for Lowe to play first and they create a helluva infield defense and help the offense as well. Bellinger adds more “D” in the outfield than at first, but he still plays there. Still, his cumulative WAR in the 5 seasons since hi…
Sorry, this is not the deal I'm putting Spencer Jones in, so trade #2 is out.
Gomez is out of options, but the Cubs need the pitching, so they just might say yes, as long as it's straight contract for contract deal.
I guess I have to repeat on Spencer Jones now. If the Yankees would play Jones at 1B once a week, they could turn him into their own Bellinger defensively. The only offensive numbers that went the wrong way were the stolen bases (43 to 25), and the strikeouts (155 to 200). Two more ABs and 3 less hits, so a negligible dip in BA. We all know what Spencer Jones did in Spring Training. As well, rep…
a good basic premise......... get rid of Stroman because he's not going to provide enough value for his $18.5M salary.
question arises as to whether it's wise to trade Marcus for a guy who is not providing enough value for an even greater salary.
Bellinger comes at a cost of $27.5M for 2025........ and likely will provide greater value to the Yankees than would Stroman.
the swap is worthy of contemplation.
alternatively, one might consider whether the team might be better served by finding a team willing to take Stroman in return for a more meager return, one involving a relief pitcher and/or a minor leaguer.
would such a deal allow the Yankees to use the reduction in salary obligation…
No I would not make either trade. Bellinger is fools gold. He's overrated and overpaid and not likely to improve since he will be turning 30 next year. I get the idea that if Soto does not return Bellinger an play CF and Judge can move back to right and if Soto does return Bellinger can play 1B and give Judge an occasional rest in CF. But even though he's a lefty and would take some advantage of YS His ISO and HR% took a huge dip last season after recovering a bit in 2023. And that's playing half his games in Wrigley Field. He also pulled the ball a lot less in 2024. There's a huge amount of blue…
I would do that in a heartbeat. The problem is Marcus ran out his welcome on the Northside 2 years ago (in similar fashion as he did with the Mets in 2021 and it looks like he did in the Bronx in 2024). But Bellinger would look pretty good in pinstripes. Keep in mind that Bellinger has not been the same since that fateful evening he forearm bashed Enrique Hernández in celebration in 2020 NLCS. But worth a shot in the right deal.