Looking at: MLBTR Arbitration Projections (2 of 2)

A little over a month ago, MLBTR released their arbitration projections for each team. Let's look and consider the cases for the Yankees.

---

Player One: JT Brubaker (RHRP)

2024 Stats (MiLB): 8 GP, 0-0 Record, 2.70 ERA, 16.2 IP, 9 K's, 8 BB's (Rookie to Triple-A)

2024 Salary: $2,275,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $2,275,000

JT Brubaker was acquired by the Yankees right before the 2024 season in a small trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named later (Keiner Delgado). When he was traded to the Yankees, Brubaker was already placed on the 60-Day IL, and he spent the entire season trying to make it back to the MLB while playing in rehab games across all levels of the minor leagues.

Brubaker was already a below-average pitcher (career ERA+ of 84) and now he hasn't pitched in the MLB since 2022. He missed all of 2023 with an elbow injury, and spent all of the 2024 season still recovering from surgery.

Would I Re-Sign Him? No. Every dollar counts, and $2.275 million of them could be spent elsewhere on players who will be on the MLB roster. All the best to Brubaker, but he's likely looking at signing a minor league contract in 2025 somewhere.

---

Player Two: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (INF/OF)

2024 Stats (NYY): 46 GP, .273/.325/.500/.825, 130 OPS+, 48 H, 11 HR's, 23 RBI's, +1.5 bWAR

2024 Salary: $2,625,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $6,900,000

The Yankees traded for Jazz Chisholm as their lone move to acquire a hitter at the trade deadline in 2024, sending away 3 minor leaguers- Abrahan Ramirez, Agustin Ramirez, and Jared Serna- to the Miami Marlins. While with the Marlins, Chisholm was teetering between being an average to above-average hitter while also being used all around the field: 2B, SS, CF. Once the Yankees acquired him, they set out to turn him into a third baseman (as the Yankees do: making players play out of position). However, to their credit, Chisholm was able to quickly learn third base and did a fine job, which was helped out by his incredibly strong arm.

There is no question about whether or not Jazz Chisholm will be on the 2025 Yankees (he will be). However, there is a question about where he will play for the 2025 Yankees. Is he a third baseman now? Is he a second baseman with the expected departure of Gleyber Torres? Will he be used as a center fielder? This will be an interesting story to follow this offseason.

Would I Re-Sign Him? Yes. Absolutely. I'm a big fan of Jazz Chisholm, and I think he'll grow on Yankees fans even more in 2025. He didn't have a great postseason, but neither did a lot of players that we like: Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, Anthony Rizzo. I'm confident he'll become a fan favorite soon.

---

Player Three: Mark Leiter Jr. (RHRP)

2024 Stats (NYY): 21 G, 2-1 Record 4.98 ERA (84 ERA+), 21.2 IP, 33 K's, 9 BB's, -0.1 bWAR

2024 Salary: $1,500,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $2,100,000

Mark Leiter Jr. was one of the very few players that the New York Yankees acquired at the trade deadline in 2024, coming from the Chicago Cubs for Ben Cowles and Jack Neely. The son of former major leaguer Mark Leiter, the nephew of former major leaguer Al Leiter, and the cousin of current major leaguer Jack Leiter, his coming to New York was a fun story considering two of his family members also spent time with the Yankees in their careers. However, the time he spent with the Yankees in 2024 did not bring great results.

All that being said, I do think he's a worthwhile pitcher to bring back. The Yankees can- and will- field a roster that will cost in the high $200M (and potentially over $300M) this year. That roster needs to include a number of relief pitching arms without breaking the bank, to allow room for contracts the size of Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, and (hopefully) Juan Soto. I wouldn't expect Leiter to be the best arm in the bullpen, but the cost is reasonable for somebody who had good numbers in 2022 and 2023.

Would I Re-Sign Him? Yes. The Yankees already had the likes of Clay Holmes, Tim Hill, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Lou Trivino leave. They'll need to keep around players like Leiter and hopes he regains past form with the benefit being a relatively low price and low risk.

---

Player Four: Clarke Schmidt (RHSP)

2024 Stats: 16 GS, 5-5 Record, 2.85 ERA (145 ERA+), 85.1 IP, 93 K's, 30 BB's, +2.0 bWAR

2024 Salary: $2,025,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $3,500,000

Clarke Schmidt brings an interesting case to the forefront of this discussion. This isn't a discussion about whether or not he'll be brought back (he very clearly will be), but instead it brings a discussion of surprise. If you had asked me before I started writing this article about Schimdt's stats, I would've said they were good to great. Instead, they were just great....in the time he played. Unfortunately for Schmidt, he ended up with a very low WAR value because he only pitched about half of the season while he was on the IL working through a right lat strain from late May until early September.

What this does, is it turns his arbitration case into a very hard to figure out number. MLBTR places his expected value to be $3.5 Million. Spotrac expects his contract to be $5.1 Million. Is Schimdt's only playing half a season worth a doubling in his salary? Or, should that raise be cut in half for the time he missed? Either way, the point still stands: Schmidt will stay a Yankee in 2025. For me, however, I'd want to avoid getting into any bad blood with him in arbitration and offer a nice contract somewhere between the MLBTR and Spotrac values.

Would I Re-Sign Him? Yes. It's a no-brainer case given Schmidt's success. Then, the Yankees will just hope he can provide them a full season's worth of work.

---

Player Five: Scott Effross (RHRP)

2024 Stats: 3 GP, 0-0 Record, 3.1 IP, 5.40 ERA (84 ERA+), 2 K's, 2 BB's, 0.0 bWAR

2024 Salary: $750,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $900,000

Scott Effross was acquired by the Yankees at the 2022 trade deadline in a deal with the Chicago Cubs while trading away Hayden Wesneski. At the time, it was seen as an interesting move to trade a budding starting pitching prospect who was close to the MLB for a reliever, and the trade to this point has not worked out in the Yankees favor. While with the Cubs, Wesneski had given them 190 innings of work with a 3.93 ERA (106 ERA+). Scott Effross on the other hand has given the Yankees 16 innings of work with a 2.81 ERA (146 ERA+) around missing the entire 2023 season and almost all of the 2024 season while recovering from right elbow surgery.

Effross will be 31 years old in 2025, and be 3 years removed from any good performance in the bigs. However, because he's missed so much time and not shown anything for it at the MLB level, it also means his expected contract is incredibly cheap. Taking a flyer on a reliever with potentially high-upside stuff on what essentially amounts to a 1-year/$1 Million prove it deal? That's a no brainer.

Would I Re-Sign Him? Yes. The Yankees have been monitoring his recovery for the past two years from his elbow surgery, and would be the best to know if he can make it as an MLB arm. The price is way to good. It's basically a no-risk, high-reward proposition, which means this is an easy yes. If someone offers you $10 for $9, you take it.