Looking at: MLBTR Arbitration Projections (1 of 2)

A little over a month ago, MLBTR released their arbitration projections for each team. Let's look and consider the cases for the Yankees.

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Player One: Jon Berti (INF)

2024 Stats: 25 GP, .273/.342/.318/.661, 90 OPS+, 18 H, 1 HR, 6 RBI's, +0.6 bWAR

2024 Salary: $3,500,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $3,800,000

Jon Berti was acquired from the Miami Marlins in a 3-team trade that was mostly made up on minor leaguers, but also sent Ben Rortvedt to Tampa Bay. Berti was expected to compete for the open third base role with the Yankees, or serve as another super-utility infielder with DJ LeMahieu for the 2024 season, but instead his season was mostly spent on the injured list. He suffered a left groin strain in early April (which kept him out until early May) and then he suffered a left calf strain in late May (which kept him out until early September). In the games he did play, he did a fine job offensively (his career OPS+ in 92) and he did a good job defensively. He also has plus-speed, which is nice.

Berti was on-and-off the playoff roster this year, and ultimately missed being on the World Series roster due to another injury (right hip flexor strain). He'll be playing in his age-35 season next year, and with 3 injuries in 2024, that is not a promising sign for his long-term health and availability. However, his ability to play anywhere in the infield (and in the outfield in a pinch) is valuable.

Would I Re-Sign Him? Yes. Jon Berti is a relatively low-risk, high-reward type bench player. For only $3.8 Million, I'd roll the dice for his final arbitration season. Let's just hope for better health in 2025.

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Player Two: Tim Mayza (LHRP)

2024 Stats (NYY): 15 GP, 0-1 Record, 4.00 ERA (105 ERA+), 18.0 IP, 12 K's, 3 BB's

2024 Salary: $2,900,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $4,000,000

Tim Mayza was designated for assignment and released by the Toronto Blue Jays in early July after posting an 8.03 ERA over 24.2 innings in 35 appearances. The Yankees scooped him up for nothing, and by mid-August he made the MLB roster for them. During his Yankees tenure, he posted fine pitching stats, but the sample size is quite small to gain any true data from, as is the case with many relief pitchers.

Mayza's case rests mostly on his 2021-2023 numbers, which includes a 2.67 ERA over 155 innings in 193 games with 154 strikeouts and a 158 ERA+. (In 2023 alone, he posted a 284 ERA+.) If the Yankees believe they can recapture that type of reliever, especially for a left-handed arm, that would be amazing. And, entering his age-32 season, that shouldn't be impossible. However, a $1.1 Million dollar raise after a season where he was DFA'ed and released? That seems like too much.

Would I Re-Sign Him? Only if the arbitration projections are off. Mayza is a medium-risk, medium-reward reliever. Even if his stuff doesn't return to his great form, he's serviceable. If it does return, he's amazing. But, I wouldn't take that as a salary of $4 Million. Instead, let's run it back at $3.5M. That seems fair.

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Player Three: Nestor Cortes (LHSP)

2024 Stats: 31 GP (30 Starts), 9-10 Record, 3.77 ERA (109 ERA+), 174.1 IP, 162 K's, 39 BB's

2024 Salary: $3,950,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $7,700,000

Nestor Cortes has been one of the most exciting starting pitchers to watch in baseball during the last few years. However this excitement has been taken from us a lot recently: his 2023 season ended with injury in August (after returning for a week from a June injury), and his 2024 season ended with injury.

However, I admire Cortes telling the Yankees he was willing to do whatever the team needed- including hurting himself for all of 2025- in the World Series. That type of grit and determination is the mark of a true team player. Unfortunately, Aaron Boone used him incorrectly in Game 1 of the World Series, and that moment will serve as a blemish against Cortes. However, his stats are still good to very good.

He'll be 30 years old in 2025 and set to enter free agency after this season. Some predictors expect him to easily top $8 Million.

Would I Re-Sign Him? Yes. Good starting pitching is hard to come by for the Yankees, and Nestor has done a good-to-great job as a 4th or 5th starter for them. Let me continue to be a little stingy and try to lower his salary down to $7.5 Million for 2025 (any little bit saved can be added to the Soto coffer), but this is an easy decision.

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Player Four: Jose Trevino (C)

2024 Stats: 73 GP, .215/.288/.354/.642, 81 OPS+, 45 H, 8 HR, 28 RBI's, +0.6 bWAR

2024 Salary: $2,730,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $3,400,000

Jose Trevino is still a glove-first catcher with a good ability to frame pitches. However, this skill alone does not mean he should stay with the Yankees for 2025. He is comfortably below-average as a hitter, and this past season showed a massive flaw, that many teams took comfortable advantage of: he cannot throw runners out on the bases.

The problem here for the Yankees is that Austin Wells (who will be their starting catcher) showed that he cannot hit left-handed pitchers. They will need a good back-up catcher who can hit lefties. There are tons of older catchers available on the free agent market: Danny Jansen, Yasmani Grandal, Travis d'Arnaud, Carson Kelly, and Gary Sanchez stand out as somewhat notable right-handed names. The question is how lucrative the market will be.

And, a special shout-out to my favorite former Yankee, Kyle Higashioka, who is expected to sign a 2/$15M contract this offseason. (I'm so happy for him! But, also a little sad because that price-tag is going to keep him away from a return to the Yankees.)

Would I Re-Sign Him? No. I am not confident in Jose Trevino's abilities anymore, and quite simply, I would not field a team with a back-up catcher who can't throw and can't hit. Somebody will want him as a low-value trade piece. But, I'm comfortable finding another option on the free agent market.

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Player Five: Trent Grisham (OF)

2024 Stats: 76 GP, .190/.290/.385/.675, 90 OPS+, 34 H, 9 HR, 31 RBI's, +0.4 bWAR

2024 Salary: $5,500,000

2025 Arbitration Projection: $5,700,000

Trent Grisham was acquired as part of the massive trade that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees from the Padres, who acquired a slew of starting pitchers (and Kyle Higashioka). He was expected to be the Yankees center fielder for the 2024 season, and instead he became a 4th outfielder for them as Aaron Judge took over center field duties, Juan Soto took over in right, and Alex Verdugo took over in left.

With the Yankees set to lose Verdugo in free agency, there looks to be an open spot for Grisham...if not for Jasson Dominguez being ready (hopefully) to set the league on fire.

For the last 3 seasons, Trent Grisham has posted a batting average below the Mendoza line. That's where any conversation of his returning should end. All of his value is held up in his glove, and that is not a valuable enough tool for a bench role.

Would I Re-Sign Him? No. What's best for Grisham is for the Yankees to find a place where he can become an everyday center fielder again. He should be traded to a team that does not have World Series aspirations, so that he can play everyday and regain value ahead of his free agency next year. He's not a bench or a role player. He's a glove first outfielder, and that is only valuable if he's in the field. The Yankees are not the team for him in 2025.