Next week, the BBWAA will announce which players will be entering the Baseball Hall of Fame. But, what's coming in the next few years?
The 2025 Election:
Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his yearly Hall of Fame tracker (which can be found, here), along with the work from Jason Sardell- who has looked at historical data and trends of voting and run some analysis- the baseball world can confidently expect that the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame class will include three more names:
Ichiro Suzuki,
C.C. Sabathia,
and Billy Wagner.
Meanwhile, the likes of Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones will both come up short, yet likely within 10% of the threshold needed for induction (75%). Outside of these two, it is unlikely that any of the remaining candidates on the ballot finish with 50% of the vote or more.
Personally, in this class, I would vote for the following players: Ichiro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia, Billy Wagner, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Chase Utley, Andruw Jones, and Andy Pettitte.
So, let me look forward and try to make some predictions about the next 5 years (2026-2030) of Hall of Fame classes as well as a bigger picture of the future of the Baseball Hall of Fame.
The 2029 Election:
Even with the 2028 election potentially bringing forth a unanimous pick in Albert Pujols, the class of 2029 doesn't disappoint. While Pujols and Molina are a nice pair, the trio of Miguel Cabrera, Zack Greinke, and Joey Votto is hard to beat in the modern era.
All three of those guys will get in on their first ballot.
My Prediction:
The Class of 2029 will have the first "First-Ballot" trio since the Class of 2015
There have been just three years where three players have gone into the Hall of Fame together as "first-ballot" inductees (not including the introductory class of 1936). The first time this happened was in 1999, when Robin Yount, Nolan Ryan, and George Brett were all enshrined into Cooperstown. The second time this happened was in 2014, when Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux made it into the Hall of Fame. Most recently, this happened in 2015, when John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, and Randy Johnson became a trio of Hall of Famers.
The next time this will happen is in 2029 with a class of Miguel Cabrera, Zack Greinke, and Joey Votto.
The case for Miguel Cabrera is easy: 511 home runs and 3,174 hits. He could also contend to become a unanimous pick.
The case for Zack Greinke is also pretty easy: 225 wins, 2979 strikeouts, a career 3.49 ERA and 121 ERA+. His career numbers align well with C.C. Sabathia, who is almost certainly getting in this year. The only question is if he'll attempt to return to baseball and delay his Hall of Fame candidacy. He didn't pitch in 2024, and though he has yet to officially retire, I don't think he's going to attempt a comeback at the age of 41.
Ultimately, it seems like the hardest case to make will be Joey Votto's. Except, it really isn't that hard of a case to see. Since integration began in the MLB (in 1947), Joey Votto has the 14th best career on-base percentage across all qualified players at 0.4094. And, with some creative liberties, we could move him up into the Top-10 if we ignore Eddie Stanky (who played just 718 games) as well as Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez (for PED's), and Mike Trout (who currently has a career OBP just .0011 above Votto, but that is dropping after 3 straight seasons with an OBP under .400).
Outside of these three, there are some other considerations of newcomers to the ballot, and as I did the past two days, across the class of 2029, here would be players that I think could warrant some discussion and consideration:
Obvious: Miguel Cabrera, Zack Greinke, Joey Votto
Serious: Evan Longoria, Adam Wainwright
Potentially: Madison Bumgarner
This is Part 4 of a 5-Part article series this week where I discuss the upcoming 5 years of the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot.
Click here to see my article about the Class of 2026. Click here to see my article about the Class of 2027. Click here to see my article about the Class of 2028.
Check back tomorrow as I highlight the players who could be eligible for the 2030 ballot!
