Next week, the BBWAA will announce which players will be entering the Baseball Hall of Fame. But, what's coming in the next few years?
The 2025 Election:
Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his yearly Hall of Fame tracker (which can be found, here), along with the work from Jason Sardell- who has looked at historical data and trends of voting and run some analysis- the baseball world can confidently expect that the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame class will include three more names:
Ichiro Suzuki,
C.C. Sabathia,
and Billy Wagner.
Meanwhile, the likes of Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones will both come up short, yet likely within 10% of the threshold needed for induction (75%). Outside of these two, it is unlikely that any of the remaining candidates on the ballot finish with 50% of the vote or more.
Personally, in this class, I would vote for the following players: Ichiro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia, Billy Wagner, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Chase Utley, Andruw Jones, and Andy Pettitte.
So, let me look forward and try to make some predictions about the next 5 years (2026-2030) of Hall of Fame classes as well as a bigger picture of the future of the Baseball Hall of Fame.
The 2028 Election:
After two down-years with the ballot, the classes of 2028 and 2029 (coming tomorrow) are going to seem incredibly strong, as they each have some clear and obvious Hall of Famers amongst their lists. Specially, the class of 2028 has Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina on the top of their lists.
If you read my article from yesterday, I highlighted how Buster Posey's debut could surprise people as I see him earmarked for a first-ballot induction. If that prediction doesn't come true, I expect Posey to get a massive bump (and get in) in 2028 as he is joined by another future Hall of Famer catcher in Yadier Molina. Their cases would help each other gain votes and, to further my prediction rom yesterday, help force the issue of Thurman Munson getting in via veteran's committee.
In addition to Molina, the class of 2028 also features Albert Pujols. His case is the next one- after Ichiro Suzuki this year- to be a potential unanimous inductee. Arguably, Pujols has an easier case for a unanimous result as his candidacy will start after two weak classes and the ballot will be generally bare of top tier talent to warrant spreading the vote to keep players above 5%.
So, outside of those two Cardinal greats, there are two other players who I think have strong cases. The first is Robinson Cano, who is going to face an uphill battle, as a positive tester for PED's twice long past the steroid era. However, his numbers (+68.1 bWAR, 2,639 hits, 335 home runs, 124 OPS+) are very strong, but I'm not going to be discussing steroids in this series. Instead, I'm thinking more about a different type of player.
My Prediction:
Andrelton Simmons is going to steal the "Omar Vizquel" vote, and he will start off extremely strong.
I am not the first to point out that Andrelton Simmons is a dark-horse candidate for the Hall of Fame. The notable baseball YouTuber, Foolish Baseball, put together a video on Andrelton Simmons and his potential case for the Hall of Fame four years ago on this topic, and if you have a free 20 minutes, I recommend you watch the video.
Unfortunately for Simmons, his career did not feature a lot of longevity, ending after just 11 seasons. However, he still played long enough to make it onto a Hall of Fame ballot, and he is almost universally acclaimed as the best defender of the 2010's.
The 2028 ballot will also be the first without Omar Vizquel, who has stuck around since 2018 because of his own defensive prowess. When Vizquel first made the ballot, he debuted with a vote percentage of 37% and moved up to 52.6% at his peak in 2020. However, accusations of abuse in 2020 and sexual harassment in 2021 cratered his campaign and momentum, and since he's been losing votes each year.
Now, Vizquel has never been found guilty in a court of law of what he has been accused of, and this is a point that has some voters today reconsidering and rechecking his name. I would not be surprised at all to see Vizquel last- and even regain some momentum- in the next few years through a full 10-ballot cycle, ending in 2027. This will play favorably for Simmons, who will take over as a "defensive vote getter" starting in 2028.
Remember: in 2020, Vizquel passed over 50% of the vote. Andrelton Simmons will do well, and could slowly mount the case that Vizquel never finished.
As I did yesterday, across the class of 2028, here would be players that I think could warrant some discussion and consideration:
Obvious: Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina
Serious: Robinson Cano, Andrelton Simmons, and David Price
Potentially: Stephen Strasburg
This is Part 3 of a 5-Part article series this week where I discuss the upcoming 5 years of the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot.
Click here to see my article about the Class of 2026. Click here to see my article about the Class of 2027.
Check back tomorrow as I highlight the players who are eligible for the 2029 ballot!
Great articles, Ethan