Looking Ahead: BBHOF Ballot (2027)

Next week, the BBWAA will announce which players will be entering the Baseball Hall of Fame. But, what's coming in the next few years?

The 2025 Election:

Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his yearly Hall of Fame tracker (which can be found, here), along with the work from Jason Sardell- who has looked at historical data and trends of voting and run some analysis- the baseball world can confidently expect that the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame class will include three more names:

Ichiro Suzuki,

C.C. Sabathia,

and Billy Wagner.

Meanwhile, the likes of Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones will both come up short, yet likely within 10% of the threshold needed for induction (75%). Outside of these two, it is unlikely that any of the remaining candidates on the ballot finish with 50% of the vote or more.

Personally, in this class, I would vote for the following players: Ichiro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia, Billy Wagner, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Chase Utley, Andruw Jones, and Andy Pettitte.

So, let me look forward and try to make some predictions about the next 5 years (2026-2030) of Hall of Fame classes as well as a bigger picture of the future of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

The 2027 Election:

If the 2026 Hall of Fame class of eligible players is considered weak, then the 2027 class is wimpy. There is not a single player who is eligible for the class of 2027 who has above +45 bWAR. There is also not a single newcomer with over 2,000 hits, and just one (Jay Bruce) has over 300 home runs. However, there are two interesting candidates making their debuts: Jon Lester and Buster Posey.

If you read my article from yesterday, I highlighted how Cole Hamels' debut in 2026 makes for an interesting case between himself, Andy Pettitte, and Mark Buehrle. Jon Lester would also find himself in similar company with 200 wins (more than Hamels), 2,488 strikeouts (more than Pettitte and Buehrle), and a 117 ERA+ (tied with Pettitte and Buehrle). However, his bWAR (+43.5) does trail considerably compared to the prior three (+60.2, +59.1, and +59.0). His candidacy will be debated, a lot. Be prepared.

However, with today's article I wanted to instead highlight the debut of Buster Posey. He also fits the mold of the "One-Team" players with around +50 bWAR who I predict will have a large bump starting in 2026, as he was a career-long San Francisco Giant (and now he is the president of baseball operations for them). He also gets a bump for being a catcher, of which tends to reduce the length of and the counting stats of players for their careers.

When looking at his numbers as a whole, Posey has an interesting profile: +44.8 bWAR, 1,500 hits, 158 home runs, .302/.372/.460 triple-slash with a .831 OPS/129 OPS+, an MVP, ROY, 7x All-Star, 5x Silver Slugger, 1x Gold Glove. He has the accolades and hardware of a potential Hall of Fame candidate, but his numbers are- even as a catcher- considerably lower than average.

The average catcher in the Hall of Fame has +53.6 bWAR, +34.9 WAR7, and +44.3 JAWS.

Buster Posey has +44.8 bWAR, +36.6 WAR7, and +40.7 JAWS.

Yet, I have absolutely no question that he will get in. Which leads me to my second prediction:

My Prediction:

Buster Posey squeaks into the Hall of Fame, thanks to the character clause

In a similar vein to my "One-Team"/+50 bWAR prediction for the class of 2026, I can see the class of 2027 and it's inductees continuing the trend while highlighting players who were- and are- considered some of the "good guys" of the sport. Especially those who gained notoriety from the year before, and specifically, I think this is a year where David Wright could shock the world.

Similarly, I think Buster Posey manages to get in on his first ballot and becomes the face of players who are given a bonus in their candidacies thanks to the character clause.

For so many years, the character clause has only ever been used as a negative. Writers and voters have scrounged to find any rule breaking, or misconduct, or personal wrongs to not vote for players with career numbers that are worthy of the Hall of Fame. Meanwhile, I've never seen an example of a player getting a large amount of votes for the opposite reason: for being an all-around good guy.

I think the induction of Posey also pushes the Baseball Hall of Fame into reconsidering the case of Thurman Munson to the top of the queue. For everything that Buster Posey has, Thurman Munson also has.

Or, at least, that's my hope.

In my post yesterday, I highlighted what my ballot would look like in 2026. However, it starts to becomes too difficult to try and predict which players will continue to be on the ballot beyond that. Since I cannot make my prediction of what my personal ballot would look like, instead I will highlight which new candidates would be of consideration

Serious: Buster Posey and Jon Lester

Potentially: Brett Gardner and Ryan Zimmerman

This is Part 2 of a 5-Part article series this week where I discuss the upcoming 5 years of the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot.

Click here to see my article about the Class of 2026.

Check back tomorrow as I highlight the players who are eligible for the 2028 ballot!