Next week, the BBWAA will announce which players will be entering the Baseball Hall of Fame. But, what's coming in the next few years?
The 2025 Election:
Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his yearly Hall of Fame tracker (which can be found, here), along with the work from Jason Sardell- who has looked at historical data and trends of voting and run some analysis- the baseball world can confidently expect that the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame class will include three more names:
Ichiro Suzuki,
C.C. Sabathia,
and Billy Wagner.
Meanwhile, the likes of Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones will both come up short, yet likely within 10% of the threshold needed for induction (75%). Outside of these two, it is unlikely that any of the remaining candidates on the ballot finish with 50% of the vote or more.
Personally, in this class, I would vote for the following players: Ichiro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia, Billy Wagner, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Chase Utley, Andruw Jones, and Andy Pettitte.
So, let me look forward and try to make some predictions about the next 5 years (2026-2030) of Hall of Fame classes as well as a bigger picture of the future of the Baseball Hall of Fame.
The 2026 Election:
The next class of players eligible for voting is largely underwhelming, and is highlighted by Cole Hamels.
Cole Hamels has the most interesting case of newcomers with nearly 60 bWAR, nearly 50 JAWS, and over 2,500 strikeouts, and nearly a 125 ERA+ in his career. However, this puts him in-line with other pitchers like Andy Pettitte (60.2 bWAR, 47.2 JAWS, 2,448 strikeouts, 117 ERA+) and Mark Buehrle (59.1 bWAR, 47.4 JAWS, 1,870 strikeouts, 117 ERA+). However, neither of these pitchers has yet to crack over 20% of the vote.
Which leads to me a bigger picture and argument: I'd vote for Cole Hamels. I'd already vote for Andy Pettitte. I guess this means I'd also vote for Mark Buehrle. A few years ago, I'd be surprised to hear this from myself.
I've never considered myself to be a "BIG HALL" type of guy, even if I used to publish articles were I'd (hypothetically) vote for 10 or so players. A lot of that was me willing to forgive players who used steroids (Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, Manny, etc.) for one reason or another (other suspected users are already in, Bud Selig is in, etc.) and my trying to clear an overly crowded ballot due to their lack of recognition.
However, I'm finding it harder and harder not to vote (hypothetically) for guys who years ago I would've dismissed almost immediately. And, it's because the Baseball Hall of Fame has become oversaturated- largely because of the veteran's committees- and it's unjust to dismiss similarly remembered players who had the fame, but not the career accolades or statistics as others who have now been enshrined.
In the past 5 voting cycles (2020, 2022-2025), the Baseball Hall of Fame through the veterans committee has enshrined (or is set to enshrine) players like Dave Parker, Dick Allen, Fred McGriff, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, and Ted Simmons. The total bWAR for these players is +329.4 and the average bWAR for these players is +49.05. (And, this doesn't even mention Harold Baines or Lee Smith from 2019, who would drop the average bWAR to +46.01.) This is extremely telling and indicative of a trend I am expecting to start seeing next year:
My Prediction:
"One-Team" Players around +50 bWAR Will Get a HUGE Bump in 2026
Think about players like Dustin Pedroia (+51.9 bWAR), Felix Hernandez (49.7 bWAR), David Wright (+49.2 bWAR), and Jimmy Rollins (+47.6 bWAR). When I mention each of those players a specific team comes to mind for each: the Red Sox, Mariners, Mets, and Phillies, respectively. Each of these players has a track record, a stardom, and career numbers akin to the former great (but not legendary) players who have been inducted by the veterans committees in recent years.
Certain players were thought of as parts of cities: Dave Parker as a Pirate. Gil Hodges as a Dodger, Jim Kaat as a Senator/Twin, Minnie Minoso as a White Sox, Tony Oliva as a Twin. Even Ted Simmons as a Cardinal, for the most part.
Having this "status" as a player emblematic of a specific team is what has boosted profiles of players who were formerly dismissed by the BBWAA in their day, to be reconsidered by the veteran's committees in the current day.
On a weak ballot, these players will get a big boost in popularity for their candidacies. However, players like Bobby Abreu, Ian Kinsler, Torii Hunter, etc. will not be given this same treatment as they did not establish roots that were as concrete as the others previously listed.
If I had a Hall of Fame ballot, I'd expect to see myself checking off a list that included:
A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Andy Pettitte, and Chase Utley (my holdovers) along with newcomers like Mark Buehrle, Cole Hamels, David Wright, and Felix Hernandez in 2026.
However, I would also consider the cases for players like Bobby Abreu (+60.2 bWAR), Ian Kinsler (+54.1 bWAR), and Torii Hunter (+50.7 bWAR) as they all clear a newly established threshold of better than +50 career bWAR.
This is Part 1 of a 5-Part article series this week where I discuss the upcoming 5 years of the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot.
Check back tomorrow as I highlight the players who are eligible for the 2027 ballot!
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