Looking Ahead...

by James Vlietstra

December 12, 2024

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Juan Soto is perhaps the greatest pure hitter, outside of Barry Bonds, since Ted Williams. I would have loved to witness him and Aaron Judge being a modern day duo comparable to Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig from the Yankees dynastic teams from over 90 years ago for the next six or eight years. Losing him is really going to hurt. The Yankees reported offer of 16 years and $760 Million was very aggressive and perhaps a bit reckless. 

In addition to Soto, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, and Jon Berti are all no longer on the team. Combined, these players accounted for $86M in salary in 2024. They also combined for 12.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR is not the tell all/ be all stat, however it is a very useful barometer for comparing players. Those almost 13 WAR need to be replaced by a combination of incoming and existing players if they want to win the pennant again. 

Almost immediately after Soto signed with the Mets, The Yankees pivoted quickly to LHP Max Fried to a record 8 year contract. He had a 3.5 WAR last season. However, his signing was also attached to a Qualifying Offer which means the team forfeits its 2nd and 5th round picks in next summer’s amateur draft. 

Some other free agents that are available with their 2024 WAR in parentheses. 

LF Jurickson Profar (4.3), 3B Alex Bregman (4.1), SP Corbin Burnes (4.1), OF Teoscar Hernandez (3.5), OF Anthony Santander (3.3) 1B Paul Goldschmidt (1.3, but 3.4 in 2023).  However Burnes, Bregman, Hernandez, and Santander all have the above mentioned QO attached, meaning the loss of more draft picks. Similarly, Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, and Nick Pivetta are free agents the QO. I don’t think they make another huge free agent signing. Perhaps a couple of bullpen arms. 

It wouldn’t be a big signing, but it could be the biggest bargain of all time. Trevor Bauer is 33 years old and has been destroying international baseball leagues since he has been blackballed by MLB. He once was signed to make $32M a year. He did his time. This is the land of second chances. He offered to pitch last year for the minimum. Let’s get him him signed for 4 years and $32M. He’s got a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. 

Established stars are almost always better than prospects. That’s why the deal that brought Juan Soto to the Yankees from San Diego was a no brainer. All those players combined may not achieve the 7.9 WAR Soto did last year. With that said, several baseball insiders believe it’s a foregone conclusion that Cody Bellinger will be traded to the Yankees. He’s owed about $52M over the next two seasons. The previous two years he accumulated 6.6 WAR.

Another name that has been mentioned for the Yankees is Kyle Tucker of the Astros. Last year, he had a 4.7 WAR in only 78 games played. His OPS+ of 181 actually eclipsed the mark of 178 that Soto produced. The 27-year old will definitely demand a free agent contract similar to Aaron Judge next offseason.

Often times a team will make a big splash in the free agent market, but then quickly regret the signing. For instance Manny Machado has 6.0 WAR over the previous two seasons, but is still owed $315M over the next 9 years. Mike Trout is owed $222M over 6 years. Bryce Harper $180M over 7 years. Carlos Correa $133M over 4 years. Nolan Arenado $74M over 3.  It’s possible that not one of these players are available, but they could make for an interesting conversation. For instance Machado and $120M for Jose Trevino could be an offer. Whereas I would trade Spencer Jones, Will Warren, Luis Gil for Harper and his contract. 

A very thin pitching market saw Luis Severino earn a 3 year $67M contract with the A’s. With the signing of Fried, the Yankees have an excess of starting pitching. He joins a stable of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Nestor Cortes, and Marcus Stroman. Could they be used as trade chips?

The Yankees 40-man roster also sees an excess of catchers. Austin Wells, Jose Trevino, Carlos Narvaez, Jesus Rodriguez, Ben Rice, and JC Escarra. If nothing more, Trevino could probably get some IFA money in return. 

Along with another prime season of Aaron Judge, the Yankees are counting on continuing production progress from Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells. Number one prospect Jasson Dominguez is expected to make an immediate impact on the lineup as well. 

General Manager Brian Cashman still has a lot of work to do before he calls the current Yankees squad complete and ready to play and compete for the 2025 World Series. It had been 15 years since they made the World Series, which they accomplished in 2024. The expectation now is to bring the championship back home to the Bronx. 

One other thing to keep an eye on is the January 15 international free agent period opening. The Yankees already have several 16 year old players they are linked to. However, Roku Sasaki has recently been posted. Because he is under 23, he will be in a similar situation as Shohei Ohtani seven years ago, signing for a bonus that is only a fraction of his value and earning the MLB minimum. He has topped out at over 102 MPH.