Let's Talk about the ALDS

by EJ Fagan

October 12, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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The Yankees will advance to the American League Championship Series. The vibes are real good, by far the best since the 2009-2010 teams. They were limping by this point in 2022. The vibes were better in 2017 and 2019, but they went into that series as the decided underdog against the Prime Astros.

The 2024 Tigers and Guardians are not the Prime Astros. Both teams have a handful of great players like Emmanuel Clase, Jose Ramirez and Tarik Skubal, but are real thin after that. Like with the Royals series, the Yankees will be the clear favorites in either matchup. Let’s hope that Game 5 goes to extras.

While they would be favorites against either team, I think the Yankees match up way better against the Guardians. Tarik Skubal will make his team the favorites in his two appearances, while Cleveland doesn’t really have a clear favorite over the Yankees in any matchup unless you have a lot of faith in Matt Boyd. Also, the Tigers are peaking now, while the Guardians have been playing poorly for months and appear to have exhausted their bullpen.

But let’s talk about the Yankees team that we saw in the ALDS. I’m still in newborn baby land, so we’re going to do this one in bullet points.

The good:

• The bullpen looked rock solid. Clay Holmes fixed whatever ailed him by sticking strictly to the unhittable sinker. Luke Weaver looks about as nasty as any pitcher in baseball. Kahnle was a little more shaky, but I see no huge alarm bells there. The Yankees will need more contributions from the Cousins/Hill/Hamilton group in a longer series, but the foundation is strong.

• Gerrit Cole looks like an ace. He was shaky in his first start and allowed a lot of hard contact in his second, but Cole put together one of the better starts by a pitcher in the playoffs so far to clinch it. I wonder if his reduced innings count because of the injury will pay off in October against starters who pitched a full season like Tarik Skubal.

• Giancarlo! What else is there to say? Stanton’s career with the Yankees is either going to go down as one of the worst trades of Cashman’s tenure or as the Yankees’ postseason hero. Stanton and Torres carried the Yankees in the ALDS. Hopefully they get some help in the next series.

• Berti and Oswaldo looked like upgrades at first base relative to Rizzo. Berti starting Game 4 is puzzling though. Did we ever get a real explanation?

  
  

The bad:

• Judge and Soto. Both players got on base a fair bit, but barely drove the ball. Judge hit an encouraging double in Game 2, reminding me a bit of when he started to get through his early September slump. Soto, on the other hand, still looks a bit lost at the plate. He hasn’t shown much power since running into the wall in Kansas City a few weeks ago, and has hit a mortal .229/.361/.429 since August 16th. I suspect that we’ll find out about an injury once the season ends.

• I wish that Nestor Cortes could pitch. Carlos Rodon has looked hittable most of the season, and was especially so after the first few innings in Game 2. Two pitches just doesn’t cut it when your control is inconsistent and everyone throws 96 mph. I wonder if the Yankees would go with this ALCS rotation:

  • Game 1/5: Gil

  • Game 2/6: Cole

  • Game 3/7: Schmidt

  • Game 4: Rodon

• Alex Verdugo. I get it, he made a few tough-ish plays. Especially in Game 1. But in the end, he had a .481 OPS, second worst on the team. That is not acceptable for even peak defensive Brett Gardner, let alone a merely solid defender like Verdugo. Jasson Dominguez should be playing. It’s a no-brainer to me.

• Cleanup. The only player who was worse at the plate this season than Verdugo was Austin Wells. The catcher does not look like he’s recovered from his massive September slump. He might be pretty cooked at the plate, possibly injured. At the very least, it’s well past time to swap him and Chisholm in the batting order. The Royals pitched around Judge even as it was clear that his timing was off. Chisholm is far better protection at this point.

  
  

The miscellaneous:

• The Yankees could really use a blowout to get Jake Cousins some reps. He would be a huge addition to the bullpen, but you can’t risk him in high leverage innings.

• I assume that Marcus Stroman will come on the roster as a long reliever for the remainder of the playoffs. Who sits? Tim Mayza is the obvious choice, but Ben Rice feels like the easy choice now that Berti can play first. I hope they don’t go real stupid and send down Dominguez.

• Will the break be good or bad for the Yankees? They will get three days off, sleeping in their own beds until Wednesday. Cleveland or Detroit will win Game 5 tomorrow, party a little bit, and then hop on a plane to New York. I think rest matters a lot at this point in the playoffs, especially in a long series, but the Yankees might be rusty in Game 1 like they were against Kansas City.

I’ll have some thoughts on the matchup when we know who it is and who might pitch. For now, I’m looking forward to watching the fun Game 5s in the remaining series. What a playoffs so far.