Let's Pass on Blake Snell

by EJ Fagan

November 24, 2023

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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One Cy Young winner is a Yankee. The other is a free agent. Naturally, should the Yankees unite the 2023 Cy Young trophies? No.

Blake Snell is a good pitcher. He led the National League in 2023 in ERA, despite having to play on a dysfunctional Padres team. He also led the American League in 2018, posting an impressive 1.89 ERA for the Rays. In both seasons, Snell won the Cy Young. Pretty great!

So what’s the catch? First off, he’s expensive. Fangraphs projects a 5-year, $140 million contract, encompassing his age 31-36 seasons. If something weird happens and Snell has to take a short term deal, we’re having a different conversation. But let’s assume that he will require a huge long-term financial commitment.

Second, he’s inconsistent. Between his two Cy Young seasons, Snell posted a more pedestrian 3.85 ERA. He’s only made 30+ starts twice in his career, not coincidentally during his two Cy Young campaigns. Snell succeeds using a combination of unhittable strikeout stuff and poor control; in addition to ERA, Snell led 2023 starters in walks. He struggles to go deeper than the 6th inning in games, pitching seven only three times.

Third, his 2023 season raises some red flags. Take a look at his Statcast page:

His xERA is 3.77, which is right around Snell’s career average. Snell succeeded in 2023 because he didn’t allow runners to score much after walking them. On on hand, bending and not breaking is a common skill for ace pitchers. Gerrit Cole had a similar xERA/ERA gap in 2023. On the other hand, it’s also a common indicator that a pitcher got a little lucky and is due for some big time regression.

I’m concerned that Snell won’t age well. He operates on a tiny margin, where he has to be perfect all the time when he walks batters, kind of like a Dellin Betances who starts. If he allows just a few more home runs, such as one might do in a bandbox like Yankee Stadium, Snell could decline real fast.

We don’t have any real solid rumors linking the Yankees to Snell at this point, other than that he and Judge are old friends. In fact, as far as I can tell we don’t have solid rumors linking Snell to any team. I think his price tag as the reigning NL Cy Young is going to scare a lot of teams off. I wouldn’t be shocked if Snell has to settle for a much smaller contract than 5/140. Maybe Snell signs for something like 2/60, with an opt out after the first season. If that’s the case, we can talk. But for now, I’m a hard pass on Snell.