Judge and Soto in Some Historical Perspective

by Lincoln Mitchell

September 2024

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NOTE - This article comes from Lincoln Mitchell's Substack page, Kibitzing with Lincoln . Please click HERE to follow Lincoln on Substack. (This was originally published on April 7, 2024.)

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The greatest slugging teammates ever were Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, who played together on the Yankees from 1925-1934. During that ten-year period the two combined for 781 home runs and an OPS+ of around 190. Those numbers are astounding but Ruth and Gehrig played in a segregated league where the competition was not comparable to what it is today.

In the postwar era there have been two great pairs of slugging teammates who stayed together for at least a decade. Henry Aaron and Eddie Matthews played together for the Braves from 1954-1966. Over that thirteen year period, the first eleven in Milwaukee and the last in Atlanta, they slugged 850 home runs and had a combined OPS+ of about 153.

During the twelve years they played together for the San Francisco Giants, Willie Mays and Willie McCovey combined for 800 home runs. That number would have been higher but McCovey did not play full time until 1963 because the Giants had another Hall of Fame first baseman, Orlando Cepeda, on the team. However, during the years they played together Mays and McCovey had a collective OPS+ of about 159. They also put up those numbers while playing most of their home games, beginnig in 1960, in Candlestick Park, which was a very tough ballpark for hitters.

There have been other great pairs of slugging teammates who were not together for quite as long. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were the heart of a Red Sox team from 2003-07 that won two World Series. Jimmie Foxx and Al Simmons were overshadowed by Ruth and Gehrig, but from 1928-1932 they were a powerful duo that helped the Athletics to three consecutive pennants from 1929-1931. From 1987-1991 Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire, likely with some chemical intervention, were slugging teammates who led the A’s to three pennants. In more recent years, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, when healthy, were an extraordinary as well.

This leads us to Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, two superstars who are both enjoying fantastic seasons with the Yankees. With 28 games remaining, the two have combined for 98 home runs and have OPS+ of 230 for Judge and 180 for Soto. Currently, they have a combined 88 home runs and 219 walks. They have a decent chance of ending up with a  combined 100 or more home runs and 250 walks. Additionally, if they continue at this pace their OPS+ numbers will be historically great for any pair of teammates.

There have been very few pairs of teammates whose OPS+ exceeded 175 over a full season. Partially because official the seasons were shorter, this happened more frequently in the Negro Leagues. Artie Wilson and Ed Steele did it for the Birmingham Black Barons in 1944 and 1948, Josh Gibson and Buck Leonard for the Homestead Grays in 1937, 1938 and 1946, Buddy Burbage and Ray Danbridge for the Newark Dodgers in 1934 and a few others.

The only American or National League duo that achieved this level of dominance was Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig who each had an OPS+ of 175 or better-occasionally much better-in 1927, 1928 and 1930-1933. Those Yankees teams won the World Series in three of those seasons.

Soto and Judge are playing a different game in a different century than the Yankees greats from the 1920s and 1930s, but that makes their accomplishments even more impressive. It is very likely that we are seeing the greatest slugging season from two teammates in modern baseball history.

Soto and Judge are not only having great seasons, but they are doing it in a very strange year for the Yankees. The Yankees currently have the best record in the American League, but if Judge and Soto were only having standard All-Star caliber season, the team would be on the periphery of the wild card race.

Other than Judge and Soto, only two Yankees, Giancarlo Stanton and Austin Wells have 100 plate appearance and OPS+ over 100. Wells (.253/.346/.421) is having an excellent season for a young catcher, but Stanton (.238/.297/479) is an aging DH who still has some power. By contrast, Ruth and Gehrig were surrouned by at least a few players, notably Bob Meusel, Earle Combs and Tony Lazzeri who were excellent hitters in their own right. Combs and Lazzeri ended up in Cooperstown alongside their more famous teammates.

This season is not over so in addition to not being able to know that Judge and Soto’s final numbers will be, there are a couple of other interesting questions around these two sluggers.

The first is how far they can carry an otherwise average team. A World Series championship will elevate Soto and Judge’s season, but an early exit from the playoffs, particularly if the two sluggers slump in the post-season will make for a very different feel.

The other question about this season is where Soto, who is a free agent, will sign in the offseason. He will likely get a contract well over $500 million. If Soto signs with another team, then the Judge-Soto duo will have been a one year wonder. However, if the Yankees decide to stop kvetching about the salary cap and act like a team that is trying to win, they will have a good chance of resigning Soto, who will turn 26 in two months. That could mean that Judge and Soto remain teammates for many more years as Judge is signed through the 2031 season and would lead to a very different and more enduring story about these slugging teammates.