Juan Soto Week Has Arrived

by EJ Fagan

December 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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Juan Soto will probably make his decision this week. He wrapped up his tour of in-person team meetings two weeks ago. Initial offers came in before Thanksgiving. The bidding continues now.

It seems like the bidding is down to the Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and Red Sox.

I don’t really trust any information other than that. Everyone has an incentive to play a little coy and leak selectively.

First, the bad news. We have a worrying report from Randy Miller of NJ.com, where the Yankees offer tops out around $550 million while the other teams are over $600 million. Miller thinks that the Yankees are offering the lowest of any team.

But, we also have a report from Jon Heyman that the Yankees upped their initial bid right before Thanksgiving. We don’t know if the $550 million figure (if true) comes before or after they upped their bid. Miller did not indicate that $550 million was their final offer. We also don’t know the other terms of the bids: deferred money, years, opt-outs, etc. Jon Heyman indicates that Soto is interested in a 15 year term. For what it’s worth, Heyman thinks that the Yankees and Mets are the favorites.

My take here is that you don’t know who the leakers are talking to. For example, maybe Soto really wants to be a Yankee and Scott Boras is trying to wring a little more money out of the Steinbrenners. So, he’s indicating to reporters that he could end up on the Red Sox to scare them. The Yankees might also believe that he prefers to return, so they are trying to keep the number down. Maybe they’ll start leaking that they are considering a big plan B like Alex Bregman. It’s a big game of chicken.

I think we’ll know soon. Soto and Boras have moved pretty quickly so far. There isn’t much left to do other than get everyone’s best offer and pick a winner.

A few other stray thoughts:

• Starting pitching is shaping up to be real expensive this offseason. Blake Snell signed for $170ish million once deferrals are accounted for. Yusei Kikuchi, owner of a career 91 ERA+, just signed for $36 million. I think Stroman is very tradeable given these prices, and Nestor Cortes or Clark Schmidt might fetch a strong return as well.

  
  

• Does Roki Sasaki have a spot in the Dodgers rotation? I guess they could trade someone, but the Dodgers have at least six starters on the roster plus Clayton Kershaw. Blake Snell’s contract seems like overkill if they think they can get Sasaki

  
  

• Similarly, what’s up with the Yankees-Walker Buehler rumor? He seems like a terrible fit on a contending team with six starters on the roster. Again, the Yankees could trade one or two guys, but I imagine that Buehler wants a guaranteed rotation spot to rebuild his value. A non-contender could make that promise, then trade him at the deadline like the Tigers did with Jack Flaherty.

  
  

• Jasson Dominguez is preparing to play left field this winter. I really hope this doesn’t mean that the Yankees are planning another season of Aaron Judge in center if they resign Soto.

  
  

• I’ll be on the watch for Soto Plan Bs during the Winter Meetings this year. Are the Yankees interested in Adames? Bregman? Someone out of left field? They’ll have to start laying the groundwork now even if they don’t know yet if they’ve landed Soto.