Juan Soto is Probably Going to Walk

By Sal Maiorana

(from November 22, 2024)

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Sal Maiorana, a friend of the site, shares some of his thoughts on the Yankees.

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Juan Soto is Probably Going to Walk Away From The Yankees

The Juan Soto free agency tour is in full swing, and now that he has visited with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, let the bidding begin. There may be a few other teams that will meet with him, maybe the Giants and Phillies, or a surprise team or two.

But if the price tag winds up being in the $600 million range that we keep hearing, the five teams he has met with seem like the only ones who would be willing to go there, though it’s also possible they won’t, and that includes the Yankees.

Soto at $600 million or more for however many years that winds up being is flat out crazy. Yes, he just turned 26, and it is rare that players his age accomplish as much as he already has, and then get to the open market. And yes, he is without question a generational hitter, perhaps the best pure hitter in baseball. However, is an average defender, not a great baserunner, and in a few years, he might wind up being a vastly overpaid DH.

I can understand why the Yankees - or any team - would be willing to walk away from him and use whatever money they had budgeted to Soto to fix several other areas on the team.

Hal Steinbrenner spoke to reporters Wednesday at the owners’ meetings in New York, and he made it clear that re-signing Soto is at the top of his offseason list.

“He’s definitely a significant part of why we got to the World Series,” Steinbrenner said. “I’ve got ears. I know what’s expected of me. So, look, it’s been a priority. We wouldn’t have gone out to the West Coast (to meet with Soto and his agent, Scott Boras) if it wasn’t.”

But while Steinbrenner didn’t say there would be a limit on what he was willing to commit to, it seems clear that there will be one, and we’ll have to see if that will be enough to reel Soto back in to the Bronx.

“No idea,” Steinbrenner said when he was asked if he had a sense that Soto was just going to sign with the highest bidder. “All I know is he’s earned this, and he’s going to go through the process. All I can tell you is, I do believe he enjoyed his time here. He’s close with Aaron Judge. He’s close with Aaron Boone. So we’ll see. But in the end, he needs to do what’s best for him and his family.”

A few days ago, former major leaguer Carlos Baerga, who has become a sort of newsbreaker when it comes to fellow Latin players, said he had it on good authority that the Mets have already offered $660 million for 15 years, and if it needs to be more, owner Steve Cohen is willing to do whatever it takes.

If that’s the case, Soto is going to be a Met, a point that Michael Kay drove home on his radio show. “I would put it this way and this is not something that Yankees fans are going to want to hear,” Kay told his listeners. “I don’t think the Yankees are going to go there. I don’t. Then I’ve heard from somebody in baseball today that Cohen’s willing to go $50 million over whatever anybody offers. So it looks like the Mets really want to get this guy. So, every report I’ve seen is that there have been no offers made but Baerga, who is usually locked into this stuff, said it’s $660 (million) for 15 years.

“I would think if Juan Soto returns to the Yankees,” Kay continued, “then their gambit of making that trade for him, well it paid off in one way, it got them to the World Series, he certainly played a large role, and that maybe he did fall in love with the experience and wants to come back. But if what I believe, that it’s going to come down to the most money, I simply think that’s going to be the Mets, I really do.”

Steinbrenner did admit that by clearing more than $50 million off the books by allowing Gleyber Torres, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo to enter free agency, “We’re in a better starting position than we were a year ago. We’ve got the ability to sign any player we want to sign.”

The question becomes this: If that Mets offer is real and Hal doesn’t match or better it, what will Brian Cashman do with the Soto money Hal left on the table?

If Soto does not return, they need a first baseman, a second baseman, and a left fielder at the very minimum, and that’s if we can assume Jasson Dominguez can win the center field job and Judge moves back to right. If Dominguez isn’t ready, then add center field to the wish list.

On the mound, the rotation is in decent shape if Marcus Stroman is the sixth man behind Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil, but the bullpen will need replacements for Holmes and Kahnle at the very least.

Without question, losing Soto would be a blow, especially if it’s to the AL East rival Red Sox or Blue Jays. But if it happens, the Yankees have a real chance to fix multiple trouble spots on their roster, something they might not be able to do if Soto is eating up $50 million per year on the payroll.