It’s Time to Change the Batting Order

by EJ Fagan

August 14, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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I wrote that we should bench Alex Verdugo last week. I don’t think that case has changed much. He’s been modestly successful over the last week - .296/.406/.370 since the first double header, although those numbers tank if you include the first two games in August. Statcast suggests that he’s been getting lucky with balls in play, and my eye test agrees.

But fine. Maybe you don’t want to bench Verdugo. Why the heck is he leading off?

Since June 1st, Alex Verdugo is 14th worst in baseball with a .220/.281/.318 batting line (Volpe is 12th worst - ouch). His defense has taken a turn for the negative as well, netting out to -0.2 fWAR. For reference, here is the whole team since June 1st:

I think batting orders are a bit over-discussed, but they matter. It matters who protects Judge. It matters that you don’t set up easy lanes for relief pitching. It matters who tends to get an extra at bat late in the game. Here is my alternative batting order against right-handed pitching:

1. Austin Wells

2. Aaron Judge

3. Juan Soto

4. Giancarlo Stanton

5. Jazz Chisholm

6. Gleyber Torres

7. Trent Grisham (Verdugo if we must)

8. Anthony Volpe

9. Ben Rice or DJ LeMahieu

   
   

My lineup fixes two problems. First, it gets a bad hitter out of the leadoff spot. Wells has been great protection for Judge and Soto, but Stanton and Chisholm will do just fine. Second, it returns to alternating lefty-righty to make the Yankees harder to match up against in the late innings.

It’s a bit tougher against lefties. Wells has a .592 OPS against them this season. I suspect that Jose Trevino, owner of a career .715 OPS against lefties, will get most of those starts when he returns soon. Maybe Torres leads off.

Why haven’t they made the switch? I think the Yankees are a little too attached to Soto at #2 and Judge at #3. They’ve had to make decisions around those constraints, leading to weird players at #1 and #4 lately.

Some quick unrelated thoughts:

• LeMahieu is hitting .316 in August, albeit with no walks and one double. It feels like he’s getting more dangerous though, and Statcast agrees:

• Fingers crossed on Jazz Chisholm’s injury. Hopefully he’s okay, but if not it might be Caleb Durbin time. The 5’6” muscle ball has finally returned from his broken hand, and is raking: 5 for 16 with 4 walks, a home run and a double. He’s rocking a 9.7% strikeout and 14% walk rate at Triple-A. He’s got a real noodle bat, but it would be fun to see him play for a bit.

• Aaron Judge’s 8.7 fWAR is already the 23rd best since 2006. He’s on track for just about 11.2, his 2022 total that is the best in baseball since 2022. But, that understates how good he’s been. He takes a pretty big knock for DHing and playing a below average CF. His 218 wRC+ is by far the best during that time. I don’t think baseball appreciates just how good he is: