by EJ Fagan
August 23, 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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I’ve heard a lot of Yankee fans clamoring for Jasson Dominguez since pretty much the moment he returned from injury. I resisted, because he was hitting poorly. He hit .149/.231/.192 during his first two weeks back, with 15 strikeouts in just 52 plate appearances. Dominguez was clearly trying to find his timing after missing so much of the 2024 season to injury. He was effectively rehabbing, as the Yankees didn’t give him any plate appearances in the low minors before throwing him back to Triple-A.
Things have changed.
Dominguez is hot again. A week ago on my podcast, Andy Singer observed that Dominguez had started hitting a lot of hard line drive outs. That observation proved prescient. Over the last week, he’s hit .426/.555/.538 with a 15% strikeout rate and four stolen bases. The Yankees have also started playing him in the outfield corners for the first time in a bit.
Dominguez is far from a finished product. His home run on the 14th was his first since returning from the oblique injury, and he only hit a handful while rehabbing from Tommy John. He still can’t hit lefties, with .925 OPS on the season vs. righties and .488 vs. lefties.*** No word on how his defense has rebounded since the injury.
***The splits were a little better last year, so this might be a small sample problem.
But that’s not the important question. The Yankees should be asking: is Dominguez better than Alex Verdugo? I think the answer is clearly yes. Here is Verdugo’s rolling wOBA since the beginning of 2023:
It sure looks like Verdugo’s normal mode since mid-2023 has been “real bad”, with occasional hot streaks thrown in. He’s hit just .234/.287/.370 over his last 365 days, which is almost exactly his 2024 batting line. Maybe he’s just not good anymore.
Can Dominguez beat a .658 OPS? I bet he can. He still hits a few too many ground balls. But, unlike Verdugo, he hits them hard. Here is a chart of his Triple-A launch angle and exit velocity:
A few things stand out. First, Dominguez regularly hits the ball over 100 mph, but tends to hit more of them for ground balls and line drives than fly balls. Second, he still pops up a lot of balls, and hits too many ground balls. Not great! But better than Verdugo’s soft ground balls.
Dominguez is ready. He was ready in September 2023. He was on the verge of a call up when he injured his oblique in June. Now he’s figured out his timing. Let’s get him back to the big leagues.
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What do the post-season roster rules say about a guy on the 40-man who is called up September 1? Is he eligible for the post-season, either with or without FO shenanigans?
yup, his time approaches.
question is - which of Verdugo, Grisham or Stanton needs some IL time before Sept 1
I can't disagree with you if he's ready or not. He looks like he's just about 100% healthy. But he is hitting more like a leadoff hitter than a middle of the order bat. In fact, they have Durbin hitting leadoff and Dominguez at #2. But who loses their roster spot, and when? Let's be honest, it is my opinion without his injury, Verdugo is never traded for. But unless there is an injury between now and September 1, I can't see Cashman DFA anyone before then, so they can't come back to hurt him in the post season.
I can't see how MLB can complain if a bunch of teams do a bunch of DFAs on August 31/September 1,…