Injured Yanks And Their Potential Impact On The Playoffs

By Andy Singer

October 13th, 2024

Photo Credits (Left-Right): Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images and Lindsey Wasson, AP Photo

The Yankees have successfully navigated the first round of the playoffs. Most of us would agree that the Yankees' performance in the ALDS against the Royals was far from perfect. While that might be reason for some fans to fret, I personally take some solace in the fact that the Yankees were simply the better constructed team. The Royals did not have anywhere near the Yankees' depth offensively or around the diamond, and the Yankees had a much more trustworthy pitching staff, particularly in the bullpen (a complete shock to all of us, I'm sure). Winning without your "A" game is a luxury. That certainly isn't the norm in the playoffs, so any way the Yanks can continue to find an edge will be necessary if the team wants to win a World Series in 2024.

Already, we saw the Yankees make some really interesting roster decisions in pursuit of that goal that I would consider outside of their recent footprint. The Yankees have very often loaded their pitching staff in the playoffs, regardless of potential bench matchups. Despite the short series with an absurd number of off-days, I fully expected the Yankees to carry at least 12 pitchers on the ALDS roster. To my pleasant surprise, the Yankees only carried 11 pitchers, allowing the Yankees more bench flexibility. Aaron Boone had safety nets at 1B, the outfield, and on the bases with interesting bench options. Moving forward, I expect the Yankees to add a pitcher for the ALCS, meaning that one of the bench players will already lose their spot. Ben Rice, Duke Ellis, and Jasson Dominguez are all potential pieces who could find themselves on the sidelines keeping warm in case of an injury.

Complicating those roster decisions further are some big-name players potentially returning from injury in the ALCS or the World Series, should the Yankees advance against Cleveland. Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, and Nestor Cortes Jr. are all working hard to make themselves options for the Yankees, but is that a good thing?

I am going to preface the meat of this post with an admission: I am not going to bother debating LeMahieu's candidacy for the playoff roster. Anyone who watched DJLM play this season knows that he is not currently capable of outperforming any of the current players on the Yankee roster. In fact, LeMahieu was the worst regular hitter in the Majors this season, when healthy. It pains me to write those words, but sometimes the truth hurts.  I have a huge amount of respect for how hard LeMahieu has worked through injury and struggles to be a contributor to a successful team. Unfortunately, I think we've finally reached the point where LeMahieu has had one too many lower body injuries to be an effective big league player any longer.

But what about Nestor and Rizzo? When, and if available, can they help? Should they make the roster? I think recent history gives us a very clear idea of what the Yankees should do if either player is available.

It's time again for one of my favorite exercises: a blind player evaluation. Below is an assembly of position players and pitchers who might be capable of playing on the Yankees in either the ALCS or the World Series. If you had to take one position player and one pitcher, which of the below would you take?

• Player A: 1.58 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 5.85 H/9, .900 WHIP, 25.2% K%

• Player B: 4.38 ERA, 5.76 FIP, 7.62 H/9, 1.46 WHIP, 22.4 K%

• Player C: 4.93 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 12.55 H/9, 1.67 WHIP, 15.7% K%

• Player D: 4.00 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 9.00 H/9, 1.17 WHIP, 16.2% K%

• Player E: .247/.345/.315, .660 OPS, .321 BABIP

• Player F: .271/.319/.424, .742 OPS, .303 BABIP

Player A is pretty clearly the best pitcher out of the above options. Player C might be able to claim that he's been a victim of bad luck, as his FIP is trying to claim, but that's a ton of traffic on the bases without any ability to get strikeouts when needed. Player B doesn't look awful, but the numbers under the hood are scary even if the strikeouts are decent. Player D has been serviceable, but again, he just can't get the strikeouts required to escape jams that surely occur in the playoffs.

On the position player side, Player F is an easy choice. He makes significantly more contact, his batting average is clearly less fluky given the relatively average Batting Average on Balls In Play number, and he hits for just a bit more power.

Any guesses?

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Player A is Nestor Cortes from August 13th through his last start on September 1st; Player B is Luis Gil from August 7th through the end of the season; Player C is Marcus Stroman from August 11th through the end of the season; Player D is Tim Mayza's full season as a Yankee, beginning in September; Player E is Anthony Rizzo; Player F is Oswaldo Cabrera from July 19th to the end of the season.

As good as the Yankee pitching staff has performed in the playoffs to date, it really misses Nestor Cortes. A flexor strain is nothing to mess with, and Nestor has had his unfortunate share of arm injuries since last season, but if he can build up to even be capable of throwing a couple of innings, it would be a huge boost to the pitching staff. After a short mid-season swoon, Nestor really had put all of the pieces together and was probably the best pitcher on the Yankee staff. Even when he's not at his best, Nestor can always be counted on to dig deep and keep his team in the game.

On the other hand, Anthony Rizzo has an uphill climb to justify a roster spot in the playoffs. Besides his reputation as a good defender at 1B, his offensive numbers have not supported continued playing time this season, and his numbers since his return from a broken arm are even worse. Conversely, Oswaldo Cabrera has proven to be a very useful player when hitting from the left-side, and he has consistently been a solid hitter in all situations since mid-July. Equally as critical, Cabrera has again proven to be a defensive stalwart, as the eye test and limited statistics tell us he's been quite good at 1B, which makes sense as scouts consistently graded Cabrera as having the best hands of any Yankee in the system, including at the big league level. Between Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti, the Yankees have enough at 1B without turning to Rizzo.

The Yankees have made some surprisingly intelligent decisions with regards to roster composition so far in the playoffs; turning to Nestor as soon as he's available while leaving Rizzo in the wings even when he's ready to return represent a continuation of those good decisions.