by EJ Fagan
December 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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I was not excited for the Yankees to sign Alex Bregman at the beginning of the offseason. In my book, Bregman was always going to be a little overrated and overpaid by virtue of being a leader of a dynasty. And I thought that he would inevitably resign with the Astros anyway.
But I find myself reconsidering him. Signing Bregman really would solve a lot of problems for the Yankees. On the other hand, there are some red flags in his 2024 performance that scare me when we’re talking about signing him for 8 years.
The Astros, who don’t like to sign players to long term contracts, made their $156 million offer as much as a courtesy as anything.* They just traded for Isaac Parades and were involved with a trade for Nolan Arenado (that he turned down due to his no-trade clause). Bregman is going elsewhere.
*Houston, known small market
Let me walk through my thought process here. If I were Brian Cashman, how much would I offer to pay Alex Bregman?
He’s the Key to an Elite Defense
Jazz Chisholm is an excellent second baseman. Maybe with some work he could become an excellent third baseman, but that’s still a big question mark. It’s better to move him to his natural position and pick up a classically trained third baseman. Bregman has historically been a solid to above-average third baseman, but took a step forward in 2024 to win the Gold Glove.
A Bregman-Volpe-Chisholm infield could easily be the best in baseball regardless of who plays first, and even better with a Christian Walker or Carlos Santana. After years of Gleyber Torres at 2nd and half a season of an improvising Jazz Chisholm, I’m excited to see some Yankees who can field their positions.
That said, this is Bregman’s first Gold Glove. His 2024 performance could be an outlier. I think he’s a solid bet to be above average, but he’s not going to pay for his contract on defense.
He’s the Best Hitter Available, But Will Walk Again?
While I’m all for a pitching and defense approach to winning ball games, there’s still a Soto-sized hole in the Yankee lineup. If the slope between Aaron Judge and the hitters surrounding him is too steep, teams will pitch around the best right-handed hitter of all time. With Kyle Tucker off the board, Alex Bregman could be the last remaining hitter on the board who can get on base in front of Judge.
He’s also a little bit different from everyone else on the Yankee roster. Bregman is one of the best contact hitters in baseball, squaring up on 34% of his swings and striking out just 16% of the time.
But, you may notice a few things. His OBP in 2024 was .315. Even if we cut off his first month-plus as a slow start, his OBP was only .329 after May 8th. Bregman took a lot fewer walks in 2024. Check this out:
Despite great contact skills, it has been a long time since Bregman was a guy who hits for average. He gets a lot of weak contact, which is not all that different from what Alex Verdugo does. He gets a decent number of home runs by pulling them right down the line, but we’re still talking about only 25ish home runs and 25-30 doubles per year.
When he had an elite walk rate, that was all fine. Verdugo was a .265/.350/.450 type hitter. But when his walk rate dipped all the way to the 32nd percentile in 2025, Verdugo all of the sudden looked a lot like that Chisholm/Stanton/Bellinger/Walker group, but with less power.
Why did his walk rate dip? Was it contract year pressure? Will we find out that he was hiding an injury all year once he finally signs a contract? Or maybe he’s starting to enter the decline phase of his career, where he’ll have to cheat a little bit and chase more pitches out of the zone. Maybe he’s now a .260/.320/.450 hitter - solid but not your number two hitter or a guy you would want to pay $200 million in his 30s.
That’s a mystery that smarter people than me need to solve. I think a lot about the Albert Pujols contract, where the Angels paid full price for a generation superstar even though he had a down, for Albert Pujols, contract year. Pujols hit the aging curve hard and quickly became a massive albatross on an Angels team hoping to support Mike Trout’s peak.
He’s Got Leadership
I don’t want to spend too much time here. Bregman has been one of the best players on the most successful playoff team of the last decade. The Yankees are sorely lacking for that kind of experience. I love Aaron Judge, but I’m not convinced that’s he’s Derek Jeter.
I’m willing to spend a little extra money on Bregman to try and buy some of that edge, leadership and experience. Not a ton, but something.
What Should the Yankees Offer Bregman?
We’d all love to add Alex Bregman to the team if money was no object. The real question is how much would you be willing to pay for him?
The Astros have already offered Bregman $156 million over 6 years for a $26 million AAV. He turned it down. I think I would take him at that price if I were Cashman, but he’s going to cost more.
If we add a year, we get the exact $182 million Willy Adames deal. Does that make sense? They are sort of similar players. Adames has been worth about a win less than Bregman, but is also two years younger. If the market for high end talent were so competitive, I might offer Bregman something like $128/4 years - a $32 million AAV through the same age as the Adames contract. But I suspect he cares more bout the total contract price than the AAV, since this might be his last big payday. He’d prefer $156 million over 6 years. The Yankees luxury tax situation also incentives a lower AAV.
So, let’s split the difference between the Astros offer and the Adames contract. I’d offer $170 million over 7 years. Bregman gets his big payday all the way through his age-38 season, but the Yankees keep the AAV down to $24.3 million. Maybe they include an opt out after two or three seasons in case it becomes too team friendly in retrospect.
Would he take it? No idea. But if the bidding goes higher, I pass.
I’m conflicted on Bregman as well.
On one hand, he is the clear best choice.
The Yankees assembled a ground ball inducing staff. I’m typically an offense first guy. But given their philosophy, a good fielding infield is an absolute necessity.
Moving Jazz to second and getting a competent glove at third go a long way toward that end.
Most known available trade options, Bohm, Suarez and maybe McMahon, are weak defenders. Hayes just doesn’t hit at all and his back is way too risky.
There aren’t any other free agent third basemen worth a look.
So Bregman appears head and shoulders the best choice.
On the other hand there is that contract. Not so much the dollars, but the…
Pitching and basic defense can make up for a lot. Giving extra outs with bad D does cause you to lose games. But the problem is today with analytics, is that walking is as good as a hit, striking out is OK because that means no DP. Further, a guy who pops up to the SS after an 11 pitch AB is considered a good AB. For everything these pitching labs and pitching strategists have done, in reality virtually nothing has been done to help the hitter.
I wouldn't offer Bregman anything more than a 5 year guarantee, with 2 years options, based on games played/games available ratio in Year 4 for Year 6, and in Year 5 for Year…
More site issues. I'm repeatedly getting error messages when trying to publish posts. The errors say that I don't have permission to publish or words to that effect. I have to copy my post, refresh the page, paste (and usually reformat) my post before publishing.
I am logged in when these errors happen and have previously published posts in the same session.
I'm not in favor of a "pitching and defense" oriented team. That by itself is not going to be a winning approach, especially in the AL East. That's not to say that pitching and defense are unimportant. They're obviously not but even if the shut out the other team you still have to score at least one run to win.
The Yankees have a strong rotation and an improved bullpen but we're not talking about the 1960's Dodgers with Koufax, Drysdale and Osteen whitewashing NL opponents by pitching off a 15+ inch mound in Dodger Stadium which suppresses long balls at night.
The Yankees, as currently constructed, will struggle to score runs. Cody Bellinger will help some but he's not…