How Will This Year’s Yankees Offense Compare to Last Season

How Will This Year’s Yankees Offense Compare to Last Season

Late March Thoughts

by Cary Greene

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Yankees analytics have dictated the Yankees approach on offense for years now. Many of the Yankees 27 championships were won using an approach that relied on power hitting corner outfielders and corner infielders, combining with standout catchers demonstrating both patience and pop!

Patience and pop, that’s a formula that the Yankees used as recently as last season. The Bronx Bombers led MLB in home runs (237) and walks (672) - an approach that led to the Yankees offense ranking third in runs batted in (782). Considering that 19 teams struck out more than the Yankees, it’s fair to say that as a team, the Yankees also had very strong strike zone recognition last season.

Meanwhile, last season the Yankees ranked 24th in stolen bases (88) and they posted a team BsR of negative 16.9, as only two players on the team were above average base runners - Anthony Volpe (5.1 BsR) and Jazz Chisholm (3.2 BsR). However, Volpe fared poorly at getting on base, as evidenced by his .292 OBP, whereas Chisholm’s .325 OBP was several notches better. Several Yankees with strong OBP’s had very poor BsR’s - Gleyber Torres (-4.6 BsR), Giancarlo Stanton (-4.3), Juan Soto (-3.8), Anthony Rizzo (-2.8), Alex Verdugo (-2.5), DJ LeMahieu (-2.1), Austin Wells (-1.8), Trent Grisham (-1.1), Jose Trevino (-0.9), Oswaldo Cabrera and Ben Rice (-0.5) and Aaron Judge (-0.4).

Fast Forward to now, as the Yankees prepare to host the Brewers on March 27th to kick off the 2025 season. Now Soto (178 OPS+) is with the Mets,  Torres is a Tiger, Verdugo and Rizzo remain unsigned, Trevino is with the Reds and both Stanton and LeMahieu are out with injuries, the Yankees offense is going to look vastly different when the season begins.

Based on his reliance on Yankees analytics, we can assume that any offense designed by Brian Cashman will attempt to be patient at the plate, walk a lot, avoid striking out and ultimately look to plate runs via the long ball. While that approach worked well last season, without Soto’s bat in the lineup, the Yankees will need to replace 40 plus home runs and 100 plus RBI’s. They’ll also need to offset the loss of Stanton’s 25 plus dingers and 70 plus RBI’s. Considering Torres was only an average offensive player, replacing his production should be very easy.

There’s no doubt that the Yankees have upgraded at first base, by bringing in Paul Goldschmidt, who is projected by STEAMERS to produce similarly to the way Giancarlo Stanton did last season. If he could hit in the neighborhood of 25 home runs while driving in 80 runs or so, that would be huge for the Yankees. Goldy is actually a good base runner for a first baseman also - last season he posted a -0.1 BsR to go along with a .389 OBP, so if the Yankees can put a couple of power hitters after him in the lineup, that could work out nicely. Here’s to hoping Stanton can come back at some point and lengthen the Yankees lineup.

With a full season of Jazz Chisholm playing second base, the Yankees offense will be upgraded from Torres pretty significantly. STEAMERS is projecting Chisholm to hit 26 home runs while driving in 76 and he can do that while playing elite defense at the keystone, the Yankees will be in better shape there than they were in last season. I project Chisholm to be the Yankees primary leadoff hitter as the season progresses as he’s easily the best candidate for the job, if he can steal 30 plus bags as he’s projected to do.

Now playing center field for the Yankees, Cody Bellinger is projected to contribute 23 home runs and 70 RBI’s and he should be a slightly below average defender. The Yankees will need his production badly, as it basically falls on him and Jasson Dominguez to offset the loss of Juan Soto. Bellinger put up a .325 OBP last season and had a 1.4 BsR so a full season of both him and Chisholm should give the Yankees some ways to score runs last season that they didn’t have.

Adding Dominguez into the mix will probably help the Yankees offense over the long haul. He proved last season in the Minors that he can get on base at a high clip and the Yankees really need him to focus on doing that this season. Fan Graphs is projecting the Martian to hit 25 home runs while driving in 74, while most other projections are calling for a third less production from the Yankees top rookie.

Dominguez is projected to be a plus base runner also, FanGraphs thinks he’ll post a 1.4 BsR and if he can do that as well, that would make the Yankees offense a lot more multi-dimensional. Unfortunately, it looks like he’ll be a pretty bad defender in left field so how much net value he’s going to give the Yankees this season remains to be seen.

Personally I think Dominguez can be an above average Major Leaguer this year, but I acknowledge that he’s absolutely going to have to show that he can make adjustments on the fly.

Another thing that the Yankees might benefit from is the continued growth and development of Oswaldo Cabrera. While Cabrera has looked pretty good this spring, most projections are identifying him as just an average player on offense. If he can exceed these expectations, it would be absolutely huge for the Yankees. Unfortunately, though he can hit righties well enough, he’s putrid against lefties so Cashman will need to figure out some sort of platoon at third base as a case can’t be made that Cabrera is an everyday player. It’s been well reported that the Yankees do need to make a trade to upgrade at the hot corner and I fully concur.

Whatever the Yankees wind up doing with the DH position will ultimately finish off what their ceiling is on offense this season and by all accounts, Ben Rice looks like he might be able to help out this year. ZIPS is very bullish on Rice, they’re projecting 22 home runs and 63 RBI’s and I would think the Yankees would be ecstatic if he could come close to those numbers. Rice is, at best, a platoon candidate as he can’t hit lefties either, so Cashman absolutely needs another right-handed bat.

Ideally, Cashman makes a trade for a right-handed third baseman - someone who terrorizes left-handed pitching would be ideal. It’s well known that Cashman likes to make a few moves in April and May, so I expect he’ll do precisely that, so we’ll have to keep monitoring the Yankees moves because it does feel like Cashman is considering all available avenues in order to upgrade the Yankees offense. This is especially true due to Stanton’s declining health and current elbow issues.

Now it’s time to address the elephant in the room. How will the Yankees offense stack up to last year’s World Series team?

This year’s team will run a lot more, they’ll take advantage of vastly improved base running and they’ll score in situations where last year’s team couldn’t. Last year’s Yankees led MLB in grounding into double plays, as they hit into a whopping 138 of them. Considering the Dodgers only hit into 99 double plays, the Yankees might actually be able to close the gap in what was a critical flaw of last season’s team. All too often, potential Yankees rallies were snuffed out by double plays last year and this year, it sure looks like the Yankees will be able to rewrite that narrative to a degree.

Giancarlo Stanton and Alex Verdugo hit into a combined 31 double plays last season, while Jose Trevino and DJ LeMahieu hit into 25. If we subtract all of those GIDP’s and also subtract Soto’s 10 and Rizzo’s 7, the Yankees should be able to improve in this area. Unfortunately, Goldschmidt hit into 20 double plays last season, but Bellinger only hit into 10. Still, the Yankees should be much better in this area this season, though Aaron Judge remains the biggest concern (he hit into a team leading 22 last season).

This year’s Yankees should be able to be in the top third in MLB in both home runs and runs batted in. Though they’ll lose Soto’s impact, they will make up a good chunk of his production by plugging in multiple contributors. Overall, I think the Yankees offense is in okay shape for this season and if Cashman can acquire an impact bat, this year’s team could even be on par with last year’s World Series team.