by EJ Fagan
November 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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The Yankees spent $309 million on player salaries in 2024. Hal Steinbrenner indicates that the budget won’t increase. This may be controversial among Yankee fans, but I think $309 is more than enough. The Steinbrenners had a stingy phase awhile back, but they are back to spending right up there with the top teams in the league. A good GM should be able to succeed with that budget.
When arbitration raises are accounted for, Fangraphs estimates that the Yankees currently under team control would cost about $243.5 million. However, that isn’t the whole story. The following players are near-locks to be non-tendered or traded:
Tim Mayza, $4.0 million
Trent Grisham, $5.7 million
JT Brubaker, $2.3 million
I also think there is a pretty good chance that the Yankees trade Nestor Cortes ($7 million) or Jon Berti ($3.8 million). They might resign Mayza or Brubaker as depth pieces but at a lower salary. That could bring payroll down to as far as about $230-$240 million, or $60-70 million to spend on free agents.
The only real salary dump candidate on the roster is Marcus Stroman, but I’m skeptical that anyone would take his $18 million until he shows some more velocity.
That’s not bad! But it gets eaten up very quickly by a huge Juan Soto deal.
Let’s say that Juan Soto’s AAV comes in around $45 million (something like $600 million over 13 years). The Yankees would have something like $15-25 million to spend. If they add a first baseman for around $18 million, they are down to just a few lower priced relief pitchers or bench players.
Honestly, I thought they had more to spend in my head. Soto really does eat up a ton of the budget. I still think it is a good idea to bring Soto back, but I think he basically locks in Dominguez as a starter and a cheap platoon in the infield and rules them out of any real pitching addition. There isn’t really a world where the Yankees sign Soto and someone like Blake Snell, but Christian Walker is still in reach.
The Yankees have the money to get Soto. That's not even in question. They just earned tens of millions in the post season. They're renting Steinbrenner Field to the Rays for $25 million. The patch on the sleeve is $25 million.
If the Yankees don't get Soto, the blame falls not on Soto for accepting a better offer, but on the Yankees for not making the best offer.
Everyone last year wanted to say that Yamamoto was only going to sign with the Dodgers. That might be true, but we'll never know because the Yankees came in $25 million below the Dodgers. Some want to say, "Well, the Mets offered a lot," but the easy response is the Yankees a…
Whether we like it or not, a Soto contract has the very realistic potential to put the brakes on many future deals (free agent signings & trades for established stars under current large contracts) for the foreseeable future. Which is why we have this this huge dilemma. We all know he can hit. Never a question. The question I have; are his hitting abilities, (.288, 41, 109) so great, and so beyond what anyone else can come close to doing in MLB, worth the opportunity cost his contract can result in as we move forward?
It's a shame that it has to be viewed this way, but that is a very distinct possibility when you consider all the factors; Hal's…
This may sound nuts but at this point, and given the Yankees' many holes to fill, I hope they do not resign Soto and use the money to fill in with several very good players. To me it seems a much better way to build an all-around balanced ball club that can endure rather than putting handcuffs on by using all their resources on one player. We'll see, There are rumors that the Mets offered $660 million as a starting point, Will the Yankees match that? Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don't.
$309 million is more than enough if you're starting from scratch. The Yankees aren't. They have $135.8 million committed to just four players: Judge, Cole, Stanton and Rodon. If they retain Soto for $45 million that's more than half the budget committed to just 4 players. The Yankees have too many holes to close and not enough quality internal options to fill them to be a slave to last year's total salaries. Wells and Volpe will fill two roster spots at minimal cost and Dominguez is most likely going to fill a third for a similar low price. But the Yankees are still short at least one SP, an entire right side of the infield and some bullpen spots. I'm…
The days of checkbook roster building is over. But you also have to be smart on who you spend money on. I was not in favor of signing Rodon. I never believed in even thinking about extending Torres unless he moved to 3B. Personally I went back n forth on DJ, but like Severino, health got him and the Yankees medical staff have had no answers. Why aren't more fans angry that the Mets were able to keep Sevy healthy?
I think the Yankees will spend on a corner infielder, even if Soto re-signs. The other open infield spot will goto a kid. The current leaders in the clubhouse are Durbin for 2B and Rice for 1B.
I do not…