By Mike Whiteman March 7, 2025 I’m back at it again, using projected WAR to predict the winners and losers in 2025.
The projections that I use are Depth Charts from Fangraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/). This system combines the player projections from the well regarded ZiPS and Steamer projections, and an allocation of playing time by Fangraphs staff.
Like the past few of years, I decided to use the Depth Charts projections to add wins to each team starting from replacement level (which baseball-reference.com states to be 48 wins). How accurate is are these projections? Here is last year's article: https://www.startspreadingthenews.blog/post/fun-with-projections-2024
Things I got right: The projected bounceback for the Yankees, and regression for the Orioles. The Dodgers were the class of the MLB. The thought that Mets could be good.
Things I got wrong: Plenty! The most egregious would probably be the 92-win season by Toronto and the .500 season by the Angels.
Without further delay, here are the 2025 projections:
As in every year I've done this exercise, a look these standings indicate that the wins and losses don’t really add up, and basically the overall records are a bit better than they really will be. That being said, I still think we can draw some conclusions from this exercise: 1. The Dodgers are just stacked, coming into the season clearly as the best team in baseball. 2. The Yankees project well. Adding Nolan Arenado might move the team to the doorstep of a 100-win season. 3. Watch for a rebound from Texas, and a very close American League West race.
4. The AL East race could also be really, really good.
5. After taking slight steps back in 2024, Baltimore and Atlanta seem poised for great seasons.
6. The Mets look to be very good, but the total projected pitching WAR indicates this could be an Achilles heel for the team.
7. Once again, the Rockies look bad. Even a tad worse than the White Sox!
This is always a fun post for me. It gives me a look at players from all over the MLB, not just the Yankees. I think it's a reasonable indicator of which teams look really good on paper.
Alas, on paper in March doesn't count much in October. Gotta play the games first.
Bring the games on!
Yankees with 97? I would bet a months salary on the under. No way they win 97.
I note that you show 14 of 15 AL teams with winning records. Doesn't seem right.
If pitching holds up this team should be around 93-96 wins! 100 is a stretch imho!
It's like the Lake Woebegone Baseball League, where every team is above average! 😁
I am also ready for the season. Let's get it going.
Interesting point about Arenado. As far as getting him for the season's start, it's getting late early.