Every First Base Option for the Yankees

by EJ Fagan

November 10, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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First, A brilliant observation on Twitter:

Hey, I have a PhD in political science! One of these days I’ll write about why I think we’re the right discipline to run analytics for a sports team. But for now, let’s talk about who plays first base next year.

The Yankees were awful at first base in 2024. DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo combined for a -1.7 fWAR. Let’s do better. Here is every option that I can think of for 2025.

The Incumbents: Anthony Rizzo or DJ LeMahieu

Please no.

LeMahieu is under contract for next year. They just declined Rizzo’s club option, but could in theory bring him back. I think it’s clearly time for the Yankees to move on from both players. They can do better, even with some of the worse options here.

A Spring Training Prospect Competition: Ben Rice, Oswaldo Cabrera, T.J. Rumsfield

The Yankees have some options to fill first base internally. Are they good options? I don’t know.

Ben Rice had a rollercoaster season. He destroys the ball at Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .275/.393/.532 before earning a call up to the majors on June 17th. He hit .267/.348/.567 during his first month in the majors, including the 3 home run game, before hitting .112/.217/.214 for the remainder of the season. Then he gets demoted to Triple-A and destroys the ball, hitting .269/.421/.687 in September.

Rice clearly has a lot of talent. He might be better defensively if given all of Spring Training to work exclusively at first. But he might also not have the juice to be a major league hitter. Rice was pretty much a non-prospect prior to the second half of 2023. He also has value as trade bait, so the Yankees might want to buy a first baseman with money and use Rice to get a 2nd or 3rd baseman.

They have other prospect options. TJ Rumfield posted an .826 OPS at Triple-A while playing solid defense. Oswaldo Cabrera is always there. But I think that Rice would have a clear advantage in any Spring Training competition.

The Most Expensive Free agent: Pete Alonso

I think Alonso is the most overrated free agent on the market. Look at this Statcast page:

I’m underwhelmed. Alonso has been declining for years now. He’s a huge and not particularly athletic 1st baseman. He can’t run. He can’t field. He hit just 34 home runs in 700 plate appearances last year. I wouldn’t pay very much for his services, but it sure feels like some team is going to send him a $150+ million contract. If his market crashes and he ends up costing a lot less, we can talk.

The Best Free Agent: Christian Walker

Christian Walker has been rock solid since inheriting the Arizona 1st base job from Paul Goldschmidt. Here’s what he did in 2024:

Walker solves so many of the Yankees problems. He’s pretty much the best defensive first baseman on the planet. He hits right-handed, although without much of a platoon split. He’s been extremely consistent - posting 3-4 fWAR each each year from 2022-2024.

There are a few red flags. He’s going to be 34 years old. His pull swing might lose a few home runs to the big Yankees left field. He was a late bloomer, so you might question his true talent a bit. His square up percentage is just 20%, suggesting that he struggles to make consistent good contact.

I think he’s a pretty safe pick, but the question is always cost. Can the Yankees get him on a reasonable 3-year deal? Sign me up.

The Best (Only?) Trade Candidate: Yandy Diaz

The Yankees almost traded for Diaz at the deadline. He’s being paid $10 million in 2025 with a $12 million club option for 2026. Given that the Rays don’t have a stadium right now, they probably feel an even greater need to cut payroll. Diaz could be traded.

He’s been a consistently well above average player for his entire career. His 2024 Statcast page is pretty fun:

Diaz is a bit of a discount Juan Soto at the plate. He has great bat control, but still swings hard enough to do damage. He does more damage against lefties, which the Yankees badly needed last season.

What will he cost? The Rays are usually open to quality for quantity trades. They might be interested in some of the Yankees post-hype prospects like Peraza or Rice. Maybe they could package him with Brandon Lowe. Or trade Diaz for rights to play at Steinbrenner Field.

There aren’t a lot of other trade candidates out there. Maybe the Rangers keep cutting around the edges and make Nathaniel Lowe available, who is basically a discount Christian Walker from the left side coming off an okay season.

The Cheap Veterans: Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Turner, Carlos Santana

There are a decent number of interesting options if the Yankees want to get a first baseman on the cheap. Turner and Santana were solid hitters last year. Santana is actually a sneaky great defender. Goldschmidt had a down season, but finished strong.

I think any of these guys could be interesting on a one year deal. Let’s say that you spend a ton of money on a third baseman like Alex Bregman, plus Soto. You think that Ben Rice has a future, but aren’t confident enough to hand it to him right away. All of these guys are great placeholders. Frankly, it’s insane that the Yankees didn’t get one of them mid-season.

The Wild Card: Gleyber Torres

Hear me out.

I’m pretty confident that Gleyber Torres can hit. He hit an excellent .313/.386/.454 after being bumped up to leadoff on August 16th and a respectable .241/.348/.397 in the playoffs. Maybe he is interested in a one year deal to rebuild his value after a generally down year, or would accept a qualifying offer. He’s a career above average hitter, despite all the ups and downs.

But the problem is that Torres is an awful 2nd baseman, and has been for years. Maybe he can play 1st base well enough? Probably not, but if the Yankees think they can find a 2b/3b and use Chisholm at the other position by trading for someone like Eugenio Suarez or Jonathan India, Gleyber at 1/$21 million might be the better than the other bad options.