by Paul Semendinger
December 21, 2022
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From MLBTR....
WHAT???!!!
WOW!
Amazing.
Amazin'!
They gotta believe...
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Ok.... now that I have had a moment to think about all of this, here are my initial thoughts:
Carlos Correa was never the answer for the Yankees. I didn't want him on the Yankees, so what follows isn't a reaction of "The Yankees lost out on Player X who they should have signed." (This is not Bryce Harper all over again.)
I talk, a lot, about players who can't stay on the field. Carlos Correa has a concerning injury history. He's missed significant time in many seasons. He's only played 140 or more games in a season twice in his career (though he did play in 97% of his team's games in the shortened 2020 season).
And there was something in Correa's injury history or his medicals that frightened away the San Francisco Giants. So, for those reasons, alone, I don't think he was a fit for the Yankees.
That being said, there is no doubt that Correa is one of the stars of the game today. Last year he was a 5.4 bWAR player. In 2021, he had a bWAR of 7.2.
I also don't think that there is a team in baseball that isn't improved, especially for the next few years, by having Carlos Correa on the team.
I also talk, a lot about players who are on teams that win a lot, and Carlos Correa is on teams that win a lot - there is no doubt about that.
Carlos Correa is also a terrific player in post season play.
Had the Yankees gone big for Correa, they could have penciled him in at shortstop or third base and then been able to deal from their tremendous glut of players to make one other big move to secure left field.
But, again, I didn't want the Yankees to be in on Correa. His contract is for 12-years. I think that's a huge overpay.
I have to hope (as all Yankees fans do) that Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe are the superstars the Yankees project them to be. Teams need young players to keep them moving forward. Long-term success cannot be built on teams comprised of all players in their thirties (and the Yankees have a lot of them).
But, still, WOW! The Mets?! Holy Cow.
I know the Mets will be torn to shreds over this deal - "Buying the pennant," etc... but I have to hand it to them. They are going for it. Steve Cohen has set a new standard - he's willing to go bigger than big, he is willing to go GIGANTIC to try to win. I love this. If I were a Mets fan, I'd be thrilled. As a fan, I always want my team's ownership to be 100% committed to winning. It's clear Steve Cohen is. It's clear the Mets are going for it with everything they have.
I used to love it when the Yankees played gigantic like that - when they were "in" on every top player.
The Mets' payroll for 2023 (according to MLBTR) will now "soar past" $377 million. What?!
I also have to speculate that if Steve Cohen is willing to invest this kind of money in his team, that he knows that even with an investment that high that he's not going to lose money. Baseball owners don't get into this game to lose money - these are smart businessmen. Steve Cohen is a smart businessman. He's not out there to lose money on his investments.
If it's true that the Mets can spend $377 million PLUS, and still make money, what does that say about how much money the teams are actually making? When the owners set the luxury tax tiers, were they set lower (much lower) than necessary? Have team's payrolls been kept artificially low?
Baseball seems to be awash with cash...
I'd love it if the Yankees were as aggressive as the Mets (as they used to be). The Yankees are spending big, but maybe they have a lot more that they could be spending... I don't know. (And neither does anyone, but one has to wonder...)
I wonder what San Francisco is going to do now. They have, for various reasons now, been unable to secure the superstar players they have been after. And, at this point, the free agent pool is pretty much empty.
If the Giants are sellers, do they have any players who could help the Yankees?
How about if the Yankees were able to get Mike Yastrzemski from the Giants? Yaz had a down year in 2022, but he still hit 17 homers and is a lefty hitter who can play centerfield which could fit nicely in left field at Yankee Stadium. Would Yastrzemski project as a 30 home run player in Yankee Stadium? Yaz is no kid, he's 32-years-old, but he's a fun player to think about... (Decades ago, the Yankees lost out on his grandfather...)
Or, if the Giants are thinking of themselves as contenders, still, they might need an infielder now... might they be interested in Josh Donaldson or D.J. LeMahieu or... what might they want from the Yankees?
Might the Giants be interested in Giancarlo Stanton? (It seems they can afford his salary...)
In the end, all I can say is "Wow." Good for the Mets. Boy are they making it exciting.
I'm glad Correa's taking a $35 million hit on his salary. I only wish it were more. I also don't like that my second-favorite team is hiring a cheater. With a little luck, Correa will fail his physical again and go somewhere else for even less money.
My jaw is still slowly returning from the floor. I'm sure there's some cursory medical information exchanged during negotiations, but a complete physical is likely much more extensive, particularly for a player who has largely been healthy for two seasons now. Still an incredibly shocking 12 hours or so.
I'm fascinated to see how Correa plays in NY, because I am of the belief that outlawing the shift would have killed Correa's defensive value at SS anyway, as his middling range was covered up by the shift (watch what happens to the defensive metrics on Corey Seager as well this year). A good defensive 3B with a solid bat has value, but I think the positional adjustment makes him close…
Now I'm going back to something Cohen saying when he took the reigns. "Mets will spend like a major market club." Granted, he's significantly outspending the Yankees, but the two teams are #1 and #2 in payroll for 2023 -- thus far. With the Phillies, Padres and Dodgers next in order. Since spending directly correlates to winning-percentage, save for a few "one-offs" each year like the Rays or Guardians. The number of "Divisional" games also decreases from 76 to 52 - which means the big spenders possibly beat up even more on out of division, other league bottom feeders.
Here's my "Way too Early" playoffs picture and in case you're wondering, the Player's Union held firm on keeping the number…
They say you can't buy a championship and Steve Cohen is out to dispel that theory!
My jaw hit the floor when I heard about this signing this morning. Here's the payroll scoop:
The Mets Payroll is $385-mil this year. Tier-4 of the CBT begins at $293-mil. At a LT rate of 92%, Cohen will pay a $139,840,000 CBT in 2023 - assuming he's done spending (which he may not be).
Tier One: $233m to $253m = +32% Tax
Tier Two: $253m to $273m = +44% Tax
Tier Three $273m to $293m = +74.5% Tax for first year and then +77% every season after that
Tier 4 $293m or more = 92% Tax
Contrast this against the Yankees, who haven't exactly "not spent" this offsesaon and are presently sitting with a payroll of $288-mil, with Stienbrenner…