Checking in on the Yankee Farm System

by EJ Fagan

July 19, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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The All Star Break is a good time to take some stock. Let’s see how the hitters are doing. I’m using the MLB.com top 30 prospect list.

Ranked 1 - Jasson Dominguez, CF

Ugh. Jasson Dominguez came back from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees played it slow, giving him plenty of off days and only allowing him to DH for some time. After a slow start, Dominguez started tearing the cover off the ball. In 94 plate appearances across three levels, he hit an incredible .356/.404/.609 with a strong 20% strikeout rate.

Then, the he strains his oblique pretty badly. Dominguez will effectively lose the rest of the minor league season. I still think that he’s your major league center fielder as soon as he’s healthy, but that might be in 2025.

Grade: Incomplete

Ranked 2 - Spencer Jones, CF

Every year, I rank my personal top 10 Yankees prospects. I always try and place one player outside of the consensus, mostly to be a little provocative. I decided to rank Jones 5th. Did I really think that Jones was a worse prospect than Will Warren or Roderick Arias? Heck no. But I wanted to make a point about the gulf between Jones’ scouting profile and on-field performance.

I almost immediately regretted my ranking when Spring Training started. Jones hit a bunch of big, booming home runs. His speed and physical talent was obvious. Unfortunately, he’s so far proven my ranking to be right.

Jones is hitting .237/.317/.403 on the season with an awful 37% strikeout rate. At 23 years old, he’s still a smidge young for Double-A, but not by much.

If I’m the Yankees, I’m floating Jones in trade talks. If they need to part with him to get a Garret Crochet, Mason Miller or Vlad Guerrero Jr, they should take the risk. Jones has a tantalizing ceiling, but won’t get there until he shows something on the field.

Grade: D

Ranked 4 - Roderick Arias, SS

More bad news. Arias was a solid pick for breakout prospect of 2023 as a gold glove shortstop who could hit. He’s hit only .217/.314/.359 in Low-A with a 34% strikeout rate.

Arias is by no means a bust. He still posses all of his previous talent, and would be a college freshman or sophomore under other circumstances. But it’s not looking great.

Grade: D

Ranked 5 - Everson Pereira, OF

Some prospect lists knocked Pereira way down to the lower ranks after his disastrous major league debut, but MLB.com was more optimistic. If Pereira could find some way to make more contact, his solid defensive skills and extreme power would play.

Well, the contact rate got worse. Pereira struck out a career high 32% of the time at Triple-A. He still did damage when he hit the ball; Pereira hit a respectable .265/.346/.512 before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery.

I’m not sure he will ever be a successful major league hitter with such an upper cut swing. He might end up DFAed this offseason.

Grade: D

Ranked 6 - George Lombard Jr., SS

So far, the list is a bummer. How about the Yankees’ 2023 first round pick? Lombard Jr. is as talented as anyone on this list and looked pretty good in his brief post-draft professional debut.

The news here is only a little bit better. Lombard has struggled to hit for power, putting up a .231/.351/.345 batting line. His strikeout rate is a little better than Arias at 23%. He’s also trending up, hitting .258/.343/.462 with a 20% strikeout rate over the last month. He has 24 stolen bases.

The high school/development league to professional baseball transition is tougher than ever. Lombard has only seen 7 plate appearances against pitchers younger than him. It’s okay to struggle a little bit. If he has a strong second half, I could see Lombard ranking pretty well on top-100 lists come the offseason.

Grade: C+

Ranked 7 - Brando Mayea, CF

Mayea has a very different hitting profile than everyone else on this list. He’s a 70 speed centerfielder with a good hit tool. A year younger than Arias, the Yankees sent Mayea to the Florida Complex League. You should always take FCL stats with a grain of salt; it’s basically a professional scrimmage.

Mayea has hit .276/.372/.305 in 2024 with a 26% strikeout rate. He has just two extra base hits in 124 plate appearances. He’s stealing a base about every other game.

Is this a good result? I’m split. MLB.com gave Mayea a 50 power tool, roughly equivalent to 15-20 home runs over 162 games. It’s nice that he’s getting hits, but Mayea isn’t going to be a major league player with 30 power. He’s not someone with a 70 hit tool or something. It’s hard to look at Mayea swing and not think that he needs to put on some muscle.

On the other hand, he’s only 18 years old and only has 27 games under his belt so far. It’s early.

Grade: C

Ranked 12 - Ben Rice, 1b/C

Finally, some good news! MLB.com was higher on Rice than most, ranking him well ahead of Agustin Ramirez. Fangraphs had Rice at #29. You know Rice’s story: he hit like mad at Double-A, got promoted to Triple-A, and swiftly earned a spot in the majors. I think he’s at least a solid major league hitter, but we’ll see how good once the league adjusts to him.

Grade: A

Ranked 15 - Jorbit Vivas, 2b/3b

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Vivas. He lost most of April and May to an injury. When he returned to play in late May, he started off slow, hitting .186/.338/.220 with a 20% strikeout rate through his first three weeks. Since then, he’s exploded to a .333/.476/.636 batting line with just a 7% strikeout rate.

He’s also been splitting time at third base. The book on Vivas was always that he was stuck at second with poor arm strength, but plenty of decent third basemen have weak arms.

The Yankees called up Vivas when J.D. Davis went on the IL with an illness. I suspect he’ll go down as soon as he is eligible after the All Star Break. But Vivas might make a solid Torres/LeMahieu fill in if both continue to struggle. He also might end up as trade bait, especially if he continue his hot streak back at Triple-A. I might have to write a blog post about Vivas as a major league call up soon.

Grade: A-

Ranked 18 - Roc Riggio, 2b

I’m a little shocked that MLB.com rated Riggio so high. He’s a 5’9” 2023 4th round pick that they graded as 50 hit, 50 power and 40 run. He’s now hitting .217/.356/.369 as a 22 year-old with big time college experience in Low-A. He shouldn’t be ranked.

Grade: D.

Ranked 19 - Jared Serna, 2b

The Yankees love their short players. Serna is listed at 5’7” 168 pounds. He’s always had a strong hit tool, but broke out in 2023 with 19 home runs in a little over half a season at Low-A. The power evaporated after his promotion to High-A, with zero home runs in 120 plate appearances.

He’s been solid so far, hitting .252/.343/.441 with 12 home runs and a 16% strikeout rate, but has been hitting under .200 over the last month.

Unlike Durbin, nothing really stands out when I watch Serna play. He’s not a muscle ball. His swing is kind of short, but nothing really pops out:

Grade: C+

Ranked 20 - Agustin Ramirez

How was Ramirez this low on MLB.com’s list? He broke out in 2023. He followed it up by hitting .289/.372/.570 with a 16% strikeout rate at Double-A and solid defense behind the plate. Coaches started referring to him as a special prospect.

He’s cooled off at Triple-A, hitting .186/.321/.371 in 20 games. I suspect his numbers would look better if we had an xwOBA score, since his BABIP is just .184. He;s still hitting for power, taking walks, and striking out just 20% of the time.

I’d probably rank Ramirez right up there with Dominguez, Rice and Jones on the top of the prospect list today. He could be the centerpiece of a big trade at the deadline. If the Yankees hang on to him, it would be fun to see a Ramirez/Wells battery in 2025. Great prospect.

Grade: A

[Skipping over Tyler Hardman, Anthony Hall. Fs for both. They bad. Also Jace Avina, who is very C]

Ranked 29 - Ben Cowles, INF

Cowles might be the breakout player of the season for the Yankee farm system. He’s hit an impressive .300/.377/.479 with a 18% strikeout rate in Double-A. Cowles has primarily played shortstop, but also has a lot of time at 2nd and 3rd. MLB.com puts a 50 field, 50 arm and 50 run as a shortstop.

Cowles hadn’t done much as a professional before 2024, striking out too much and not hitting for any real power. Something seemed to change around the Arizona Fall League last year. I like his swing.

Cowles will probably earn a promotion to Triple-A soon. I wonder if we could see him in the majors if Oswaldo Cabrera continues to hit poorly and Caleb Durbin remains on the IL. He would also make a good second piece in a trade.

Bottom Line

It’s been a rough year for hitters in the Yankee farm system. It’s nice to see players like Cowles and Vivas have strong seasons, plus the oddly unranked Caleb Durbin. Those guys could end up as nice major league hitters somewhere. But the Yankees need more out of their star power guys like Jones, Arias and Lombard. If a few of them don’t turn it around, the system will end the 2024 season as one of the lowest ranked in the majors.