Calling All Armchair GM’s

Calling All Armchair GM’s - What should the Yankees Accomplish this Offseason?

Early November Insights from Cary Greene

November 10, 2024

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On With Durbin, Peraza and Vivas providing in-house options at 2B and with Chisholm, Berti and (gulp) LeMahieu all back next season - my focus has sharpened quite a bit since the sting of the uninspiring World Series loss to the Dodgers has begun to wear off.

With Ben Rice and Jasson Dominguez both continuing to develop, I think the Yankees have a lot of ingredients in the cupboard already, so I’ve come up with a realistic plan that I’d like the Yankees to accomplish this offseason, given Hal Steinbrenner’s stated objective of reducing payroll this offseason.

Before I get into the plan, mark me down for not agreeing with Steinbrenner’s thought process on what he’s willing to spend. If the Yankees fail to win a championship during prime Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole seasons, Hal Steinbrenner will have squandered a ton of money and towards what end? Is the goal to put a competitive team on the field each season but not really to go all towards building a prohibitive World Series favorite?

Now that my stance is clearly out in the open, let's agree that it’s unlikely that Hal Steinbrenner will permit Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman to exceed the top tier of the CBT this offseason - so we’ll work with a Steinbrennerian effective cap of $291 million.

Last year’s team lacked a true leadoff hitter for most of the season and it was only after Gleyber Torres was returned to the top of the lineup on August 16th that the Yankees lineup came to life. Torres hit .313/.386/.454 over the course of the season’s final 39 games and low and behold, the Yankees clinched a tightly contested American League East and then rolled all the way to the World Series. Coincidentally, Torres posted a .744 OPS during the postseason, slugging two home runs with 8 RBI’s and 23 total bases.

After the Yankees decided not to extend qualifying offers to a number of players on their roster and with Torres being one of those impacted, it’s very clear that change is going to be in the air this offseason for the Yankees, who will undoubtedly put a plan together that attempts to improve the roster.

One large decision the Yankees will need to make is where they’re going to play Jazz Chisholm and it’s probably in the team’s best interest if they tap into his versatility and his athleticism by using him both at the hot corner and also at the keystone - the latter being his natural position. If the Yankees conducted a competition this spring training, Caleb Durbin, Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas could all vye for roster spots and the Yankees could look internally to solve the second base and third base pieces of their infield puzzle and doing that would absolutely free up payroll to be used elsewhere.

With second base and third base presumably covered with in house options, where the Yankees probably do need to either import a free agent or make a trade is at first base. Down the stretch this season for the RailRiders, Ben Rice made a case for the Yankees to give him another look in Spring Training as he was Scranton’s best hitter, but Rice’s chase rate of 20.6 percent with the Yankees showed that he’s still very green when facing Big League pitching.

A forgotten man this offseason is DJ LeMahieu and for good reason. Though LeMahieu still has tremendous range - measured by StatCast to be in the upper 86th percentile of all infielders, he has a weak arm that was likewise measured to be in the bottom 16th percentile and his once elite bat was atrocious last season. It’s doubtful that LeMahieu can be a realistic option for the Yankees given the rate of his decline, but he is still under contract through 2026 and the Yankees still owe him $15 million per season as well, so short of Cashman having to DFA him, it sure looks like LeMahieu will vye for a position on the roster this coming spring.

Considering LeMahieu’s range and weak arm, I’ve long been a proponent of playing him at second base, but at this stage of his career, barring a signing or a trade, the best case scenario is probably that he could platoon at first base with perhaps Ben Rice. It may be time for the Yankees to look for a first baseman and considering that the Yankees were 12 in the Majors vs left-handed pitching last season with a .721 OPS.

This offseason’s free agent class of first basemen is headed by Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and Carlos Santana. Alonso, a poor defensive player, was worth $16.7 million this past season per Fangraphs and he’s projected to land a 6-year deal in the neighborhood of $174 million - with an AAV of $29 million so it makes very little sense for the Yankees to target him as he represents a possible sunk cost over the life of his contract. Walker meanwhile will likely land a 3-year deal in the $66 million range, with an AAV of around $22 million and this past season, Fangraphs says Walker was worth $24.1 million - so it wouldn’t be a smart move for the Yankees to sign Walker either as there is little likelihood that he’ll be worth the spend.

That leaves Carlos Santana, who absolutely raked against left-handed pitching last season to the tune of a 161 wRC+ and who is projected to sign for a single year for $14 million. Santana might actually be a good stop gap signing, considering he’s a very good fielder, he doesn’t strike out a lot and he takes his walks because he has very good pitch recognition and overall awareness of the strike zone – key skills that Ben Rice presently lacks.

If I’m Brian Cashman, I go ahead and sign Santana if at all possible and I’d be willing to spend up to $16 million to get a deal done. Santana would likely be a good presence in the clubhouse and he’s also potentially an ideal tutor to help Ben Rice develop at the position.

SSTN’s own Andy Singer lobbied in his Weekly Mailbag last week that the Yankees should be all over free agent Willy Adames as well and I find myself inclined to strongly agree but wih a potentially deal breaking caveat which I will get into shortly - but first, let’s acknowledge the fit between Adames and the Yankees.

Fangraphs says Adames was worth $38.1 million last season and he’ll likely $25+ million AAV in free agency this offseason – I can live with signing Adames for 6-years as it’s very likely that the 29-year-old Adames (a highly athletic player with a strong arm who also has good baserunning instincts) is a near perfect fit for the Yankees. In fact, he’s exactly the type of player the Yankees need (and have needed for several seasons now).

Here in lies the first problem though regarding signing Adames - the Yankees are also going after Juan Soto who is projected to land a record contract that tops $700 million with an AAV of more than $46 million, so unless Soto is willing to do a deferred contract, signing Adames and Soto both isn’t happening. That said, if I’m Cashman, I go all out for both and I also sign Santana. I’ve studied the free agent market ad nauseam I’m strongly convinced that these are the three positional moves the Yankees should make, in a perfect world where Steinbrenner cuts the checks necessary to upgrade the offense – but the entire plan is contingent upon Scott Boras and Juan Soto’s combined willingness to do a deferred contract. There is also another matter to consider though - if Steinbrenner is putting a hard stop at the CBT’s $291 million tier, how are the Yankees supposed to both upgrade the offense and the pitching both? Using free agency alone, accomplishing these tasks simply isn’t possible.

Regarding other moves the Yankees need to make, it’s clear that the Yankees need to add to both their starting rotation and their bullpen. Given that Carlos Rodon has become at best a middle of the rotation arm and due to my staunch belief that pitching wins championships, I think it is imperative for the Yankees to add a front of the rotation starter to pair with the staff’s resident ace, Gerrit Cole. Marcus Stoman, who is still due $18.3 million over the next two seasons, is also going to be very difficult to trade this winter and right now, he’s the team’s fifth (or sixth) starter. If the Yankees want to improve their championship chances, it sure seems like they need to add an ace.

Top available starters include Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, Nathan Eovaldi, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd and Justin Verlander. This year’s crop of free agent pitchers is very deep in fact.

If the Soto agrees to do a deferred deal and if the Yankees were to spend $39.3 million on Santana and Adames, they’d likely have around $16.7 million remaining to spend before the payroll would balloon to the $291 CBT threshold that Steinbrenner doesn’t seem willing to violate. With the best available ace Burnes projected to land a $210 million deal for 7-years, with an AAV of $30 million, it would appear that he’s too expensive (!) an option for the Yankees to consider if the plan is also to upgrade positionally via free agency.

Moving down the ladder, Blake Snell (rumored to be the Met’s top pitching target presently) will likely land a 5-year deal that surpasses $130 million, with an AAV north of $26 million so it would appear he too is probably too expensive (!) for the Yankees. Likewise, Max Fried is projected to land a six year, $174 million deal with an AAV of around $29 million so he’d also be too expensive (!) for the Yankees as well.

Eovaldi is projected to get at least 2-years and $55 million, with an AAV of $27.5 million and Jack Flaherty is in line for a 3-Year deal worth $61 million - placing his AAV at $20 million – so both Eovaldi and Flaherty are also too expensive (!) for the Yankees. Shane Bieber’s market value ($24.5) makes him very pricey (!) as well.

In fact, based on Sportrac’s projected market values, the only free agent starters the Yankees will be able to afford this offseason if Adames and Santana are signed would be Sean Manaea ($16.1 million), Max Scherzer ($15.2 m), Justin Verlander ($13.9 m), Luis Severino ($14 m) or lesser types like Matthew Boyd ($3.2 m), Patrick Corbin ($6.4 m)..etc.

Therefore, if the Yankees can get Soto to do a deferred deal, an alternate strategy that might behoove Cashman to adhere to would be to pass on signing Adames and Santana both and instead look to execute a trade for a first baseman, as doing that would free up payroll that could be spent on pitching. If the Yankees went this direction (and I feel there is a strong chance they will do precisely that), my top target to upgrade the Ynkees rotation is actually Max Fried - despite the balky elbow issues that he’s had over the last two seasons.

Fried is a top shelf lefty starter who commands six pitches with pinpoint control. He’s an excellent fit with the Yankees and it makes all the sense in the world to target the most consistently excellent and best available lefty on the market. Doing so is a bit of a gamble, but it’s one I’d take if I was Cashman.

With Fried signed, the Yankees could allocate the remaining $27 million towards rolling the dice on Blake Treinen ($2.4 million) and landing Tanner Scott ($16.4 million) to close. There would still be enough left over to bring back Tommy Kahnle ($5.3 m) and possibly land either Walker Buhler ($3.9 m) or another intriguing reliever.

Unfortunately for the Yankees this offseason, Hal Steinbrenner isn’t going to allocate enough payroll to allow Brian Cashman the luxury of significantly upgrading the offense and the pitching – this offseason for the Yankees is about bargain shopping and perhaps having to roll the dice on a select few high risk/high reward type players while also pulling off a trade or two positionally.

Lastly, it’s unlikely that the Yankees bring back Clay Holmes, who’s market value ($13.7) combined with his inability to close would seem to mean his time in pinstripes is now over.

Now the floor is yours my dear readers! What would you like to see the Yankees do with their available payroll this offseason?