Building Room In The Budget

By Andy Singer

November 19th, 2024

I have been working hard on a comprehensive offseason plan. I do this every year, but this year, I'm going quite a bit deeper than I do most years. As such, my post, which normally goes up between mid-November and early-December, isn't ready yet. However, one of the things I've been thinking about is how the Yankees can find a little more salary relief in order to manage whatever likely budget Hal Steinbrenner sets.

The 4th and highest luxury tax tier this year is set at roughly $301 million, up from $297 million last season. Using publicly available information, which may be short on a detail or two, Fangraphs estimates that the Yankees' payroll for the 2024 season was roughly $313 million for luxury tax purposes (note: this figure includes health insurance payments and other human resource figures that are part of the calculation). Hal Steinbrenner noted more than once throughout the season that running payroll at 2024 levels would be unsustainable in the long-term. Given that fact, I can't help but think that this year's budget is somewhere between the $301 million threshold and last season's $313 million payroll. That is the assumption I'm working with.

According to Fangraphs, the Yankees' current payroll obligations, including salary estimates for arbitration and renewal salaries, is roughly $245 million without any further signings. Let's imagine that the Yankees re-sign a certain outfielder to a long-term contract worth $47 million AAV. That puts the Yankees at $292 million payroll for luxury tax purposes, which wouldn't leave the team a ton of wiggle room to fill their other roster holes.

However, the payroll isn't quite as tight as it looks at first glance. As part of my research for my off-season plan, I have identified numerous potential salary casualties who could give the Yankees some breathing room. I have put those players into three separate buckets: Release/Non-Tender Candidates, Trade Candidates, and Large/Bad Contract Swap Candidates. Let's take a look:

Release/Non-Tender Candidates

Jon Berti ($3.8 million estimated AAV)

Tim Mayza ($4.0 million estimated AAV)

JT Brubaker ($2.275 estimated AAV)

Those 3 players alone add up to just over $10 million of dedicated payroll next season. All can be non-tendered or released without penalty.

Berti is an aging player who depends on his legs for value, but his lower body was banged up for nearly all of the 2024 season. While his positional versatility and solid baserunning and defense are positive attributes for a team that needs those qualities, Berti's performance and injury history do not warrant a salary like $3.8 million.

Tim Mayza was picked up off of the scrap heap last season after he struggled mightily with Toronto. The Yankees helped Mayza rebuild some velocity and he was vaguely effective out of the bullpen as the mop up guy and sole lefty. I don't think Mayza should be jettisoned immediately, but I think the Yankees can do better for less money this offseason.

JT Brubaker was acquired as starting pitching depth or as a possible upside reliever conversion. Like Clay Holmes, Brubaker came from the Pirates as a sinker/slider guy, which is the exact type of pitcher the Yankees have had success with in the past. Brubaker never got healthy or effective enough to pitch for the Yanks at the MLB level in 2024. The Statcast numbers we have for Brubaker during his minor league comeback show that he pounded the zone with sinkers, sliders, and a few curveballs, but his whiff and strikeout rates disintegrated versus his pre-injury numbers, and his sinker lived in just the low-90s. Maybe he has more in the tank with a full, normal offseason of training, but I'm not sure Brubaker is worth the cost.

Trade Candidates Nestor Cortes ($7.7 million estimated AAV)

Jose Trevino ($3.4 million estimated AAV)

Trent Grisham ($5.7 million estimated AAV)

This list comprises just the guys whose salaries have risen enough that if I were the Yankees, I'd look to gauge interest around the league.

To be clear, the one guy on this list who doesn't exactly fit that description is Nestor. I love the guy, and I think he's a core part of the clubhouse mix in addition to being a key contributor to the pitching staff. However, we know that the Yankees have looked at potential

trades involving Nestor over the last year and a half, and his salary is creeping higher as he moves through his arbitration years. The Yankees could certainly clear salary and get good value back by moving Nestor Cortes. Moving Nestor would require getting some pitching depth elsewhere, but moving Nestor is a real possibility.

The easiest move on this list is Jose Trevino. He's getting more expensive, and teams have shown that they will pay for a decent backup catcher. Trevino is lauded for his work with a pitching staff and he is the best pitch framer in baseball...he just can't throw. The Yankees have cheaper likely better all-around backup catcher options down at AAA in Carlos Narvaez and JC Escarra (who also brings an interesting bat and positional versatility as a late-bloomer). Trevino could almost certainly bring back a good relief arm, and it makes sense to move on.

Grisham is a tougher guy to move, but I wouldn't be surprised if another team viewed him as a possible second-division regular on an up-and-coming team. I like Grisham a 4th outfielder, but he's expensive in that role, and the Yankees should look for opportunities to move on.

Large/Bad Contract Swaps

DJ LeMahieu ($15 million estimated AAV)

Marcus Stroman ($18.5 million estimated AAV)

Can the Yankees find a way to move on from DJ LeMahieu? The conditions would have to be absolutely perfect. One possibility keeps coming to mind, though: the Arizona Diamondbacks. The rumor is that Arizona desperately wants to move on from Jordan Montgomery, who will cost $25 million in 2025. Arizona could use a professional, veteran bench presence on a young team. I very much wonder if the Yankees could work out a bad contract swap here. I could see DJ having a dead cat bounce as a reserve player and more lower body health (not enough to allow him to live up to his contract, but enough to fill a 26-man roster spot), while I could also see Monty having a bounce-back campaign with an offseason of training and a return to some familiarity. Monty would give the Yankees some much-needed innings, and with a salary difference of $10 million, that's a cheaper buy than almost any pitcher they can find on the open market. This may be a pure fantasy idea, but I think the Yankees should try.

Stroman is not a great pitcher anymore, but he battles and takes the ball every fifth day. Moneyball was all about finding value in undervalued assets, and I think the Yankees can use that idea to their advantage. I think the next "Moneyball" frontier is pitchers who remain healthy and consistently post 160 innings on the mound. Any number of teams are looking for pitchers like that this offseason, which means the Yankees could find a useful deal for Stroman if they eat a little bit of money. Looking around, I can't help but see the Reds as a match, even if the proposed deal for Brady Singer goes through. I think the Yankees would need to eat somewhere between $6 and $12 million to get something useful in return, but I think it's something the Yanks should explore.

Conclusion

Add it all up, and the Yankees could find a fair amount of salary relief this offseason to accomplish multiple tasks. Given that fact, I think the Yankees will have a very busy offseason, so put your helmets on, and get ready for the ride.