by EJ Fagan
August 14, 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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The Yankees will play the Dodgers in the 2024 World Series. Heck yeah.
I’m going to try to find some time to write a full breakdown before Friday. But I have some big picture thoughts about the ALCS and World Series first.
Hitting wins in the playoffs
I heard the old maxim a million times over decades: hitting wins in the regular season, pitching wins in the playoffs. I’m pretty sure that isn’t true today.
The Yankees beat Cleveland by wearing them down with hitting. They ground away at Cleveland’s lackluster starting pitching, forcing the Guardians to use the best bullpen in baseball early and often. Cleveland almost never allowed big crooked numbers, but eventually caved under pressure from Judge, Stanton, Soto, Torres, Volpe and Rizzo in four out of five games.
The Guardians had no way to counterpunch with the same kind of sustained pressure. They got a few big home runs, but had neither the depth nor the power to capitalize on all of those Stephen Kwan singles. They didn’t draw a boatload of walks. Yankee starters were able to last into the 5th inning despite not being very sharp.
The 2021 Braves and 2023 Rangers had similar stories: good enough pitching and elite offense. The 2022 Astros had the best pitching staff in the league, but were no slouches on offense either. The Yankees and Dodgers were two of the three best offenses in the league and beat elite pitching staffs in San Diego and Kansas City, plus the incredible Cleveland bullpen.
Every team is going to have a full staff of fireballers these days. Only a few will be be able to develop and buy the elite talent that the Yankees and Dodgers have.
A Great Bullpen is Overrated in the Playoffs
Conversely, I think we all witnessed the limitation of a great bullpen in the Cleveland series. Ever since the 2015 Royals, the conventional wisdom has been to rely on relief over starting pitching in the playoffs. I think we saw the limitation of that strategy in New York.
Most of Cleveland’s bullpen saw the top Yankees hitters 3 or 4 times during the 5-game series. Just look at their ERAs:
If Cleveland had managed to hold off the Yankees in Game 5, this group would have been completely gassed for the last two games in the series.
I think the lesson for baseball is that you can’t manage a 7-game series in full sprint mode.
Even in 2024, you need to get a lot more out of your starting pitching than Cleveland managed to, especially early.
What about the Dodgers? They just won Game 6 on a pure bullpen day. I think they dodged (pun intended) a bullet. The Dodgers didn’t have to use their full bullpen in most of the NLCS games because they weren’t very close. It was a series of blowouts for both teams. Had these games been close, they would have ended up in the exact same spot as the Guardians.
The Yankees Match Up Well Against the Dodgers
I have will a lot more to say about the matchup before Friday, but I am very happy that the Yankees are playing the Dodgers rather than the Mets. New York would have thrown three lefty starters against the Yankees. The Dodgers have one lefty on their entire roster in Anthony Banda. Los Angeles can’t exploit the Yankees’ biggest weakness.
Similarly, the Yankees are well positioned to exploit the Dodgers weakness in having no starting pitching. Yankee hitters have been wearing down pitchers all playoffs. They should be able to force a lot of relief pitchers into games. And, unlike the Guardians, the Dodgers bullpen is merely good. It’s better than the Yankees bullpen, but has a lot of ERAs in the 3.00s. The Yankees should be able to score runs off them, especially if they can tire them out early in the series.
That’s it for now! Friday can’t come soon enough.
it seems the hints we are getting suggest that Nestor will be on the WS roster. in order to add him none of the pitchers will be removed, again according to rumor and / or educated / uneducated speculation. instead it is posed that we would have 13 pitchers and probably remove Grisham from the roster
personally, I would want Grisham over Mayza without a second of hesitation
I love the Yankees chances in Dodger Stadium. A lot.
Let's start with Giancarlo Stanton. He grew up in the Los Angeles area (San Fernando Valley) a Dodgers fan and attended a lot of games at Dodger Stadium. As a Major Leaguer, Stanton has hit extremely well at Dodger Stadium, sporting a .309 batting average, 10 home runs, and a slugging percentage of .723 in 25 games. He also homered in the 2022 All Star game there.
Aaron Judge has also hit the Dodgers hard at Dodger Stadium, and also hit a lot of homers against their pitching. both at Dodger Stadium and at Yankee Stadium.
Juan Soto had tremendous success against Dodgers pitching in TWO POST SEASON UPSETS against…
Pitching may be more of a factor than many realize. As you all know, when a game starts at 8:08 PM Eastern time, it actually starts at 5:08 PM in Los Angeles where the first 2 games will be played. There will still be 1 hour to 1-1/2 hours of daylight before the sun sets and nighttime starts. This will cause long "late day" shadows that make it difficult for hitters to see the ball as it's pitched to them. The pitcher could be in the shadow while the hitter could be in the sun. Or vice versa. This is what was partially responsible for some of Nolan Ryan's no-hitters when he was pitching for the California Angels.
I have…
no, a good bullpen is not really over-rated
unless someone wishes to rely on an assumption that having a good bullpen is considered the main ingredient for post-season success.
the traditional baseball axiom is that a team needs to rely on three good starters and three good relievers to win a World Series.
as the baseball powers-that-be have changed the post-season structure into an extended series of series rather than a single best of seven games affair.
the axiom has recognized the new reality by amending the original thought about pitching requirements to a more expansive one..... 3 starters is now 3 starters and an occasional 4th......
3 relievers is now 4 or even 5
this does not increase the…
Just wanted to note, in case people haven't read about it, the sad passing of Fernando Valenzuela, all too soon at age 63. He was a phenomenon when he burst on the scene -- the only analogy I can think of is Mark Fidrych in terms of national interest in a rookie pitcher.
One of my first thoughts was the '24 Dodgers sure could use a lefty superstar in their rotation like they had in Valenzuela in 1981. He won his only start vs. the Yankees in Game 3 of the World Series, pitching just well enough to win 5-4 (and get the Dodgers back in the series after having lost the first two games in New York) with …