Bring on the Dodgers

by EJ Fagan

August 14, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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The Yankees will play the Dodgers in the 2024 World Series. Heck yeah.

I’m going to try to find some time to write a full breakdown before Friday. But I have some big picture thoughts about the ALCS and World Series first.

Hitting wins in the playoffs

I heard the old maxim a million times over decades: hitting wins in the regular season, pitching wins in the playoffs. I’m pretty sure that isn’t true today.

The Yankees beat Cleveland by wearing them down with hitting. They ground away at Cleveland’s lackluster starting pitching, forcing the Guardians to use the best bullpen in baseball early and often. Cleveland almost never allowed big crooked numbers, but eventually caved under pressure from Judge, Stanton, Soto, Torres, Volpe and Rizzo in four out of five games.

The Guardians had no way to counterpunch with the same kind of sustained pressure. They got a few big home runs, but had neither the depth nor the power to capitalize on all of those Stephen Kwan singles. They didn’t draw a boatload of walks. Yankee starters were able to last into the 5th inning despite not being very sharp.

The 2021 Braves and 2023 Rangers had similar stories: good enough pitching and elite offense. The 2022 Astros had the best pitching staff in the league, but were no slouches on offense either. The Yankees and Dodgers were two of the three best offenses in the league and beat elite pitching staffs in San Diego and Kansas City, plus the incredible Cleveland bullpen.

Every team is going to have a full staff of fireballers these days. Only a few will be be able to develop and buy the elite talent that the Yankees and Dodgers have.

A Great Bullpen is Overrated in the Playoffs

Conversely, I think we all witnessed the limitation of a great bullpen in the Cleveland series. Ever since the 2015 Royals, the conventional wisdom has been to rely on relief over starting pitching in the playoffs. I think we saw the limitation of that strategy in New York.

Most of Cleveland’s bullpen saw the top Yankees hitters 3 or 4 times during the 5-game series. Just look at their ERAs:

If Cleveland had managed to hold off the Yankees in Game 5, this group would have been completely gassed for the last two games in the series.

I think the lesson for baseball is that you can’t manage a 7-game series in full sprint mode.

Even in 2024, you need to get a lot more out of your starting pitching than Cleveland managed to, especially early.

What about the Dodgers? They just won Game 6 on a pure bullpen day. I think they dodged (pun intended) a bullet. The Dodgers didn’t have to use their full bullpen in most of the NLCS games because they weren’t very close. It was a series of blowouts for both teams. Had these games been close, they would have ended up in the exact same spot as the Guardians.

The Yankees Match Up Well Against the Dodgers

I have will a lot more to say about the matchup before Friday, but I am very happy that the Yankees are playing the Dodgers rather than the Mets. New York would have thrown three lefty starters against the Yankees. The Dodgers have one lefty on their entire roster in Anthony Banda. Los Angeles can’t exploit the Yankees’ biggest weakness.

Similarly, the Yankees are well positioned to exploit the Dodgers weakness in having no starting pitching. Yankee hitters have been wearing down pitchers all playoffs. They should be able to force a lot of relief pitchers into games. And, unlike the Guardians, the Dodgers bullpen is merely good. It’s better than the Yankees bullpen, but has a lot of ERAs in the 3.00s. The Yankees should be able to score runs off them, especially if they can tire them out early in the series.

That’s it for now! Friday can’t come soon enough.