Ben Rice is Hitting the Ball Very Hard

by EJ Fagan

March 2025

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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Spring Training stats don’t matter. That’s why I’m not going to mention Ben Rice’s insane Spring batting line. But, I do think that we’re seeing a breakout from Ben Rice this Spring.

Let’s recap a little bit. Rice was an obscure prospect prior to the 2023 season, barely holding his own across two A-ball seasons as a 22 year-old. The breakout came in the middle of the 2023 season, after Rice missed a few months with an injury. Here’s what came next:

• Rice returns on July 1st, hits .315/.397/.618 for the remainder of the season. 18 home runs in 60 games. 19% strikeout rate. Mostly at Double-A. Massive platoon splits.

• Rice hits .275/.393/.532 through June 16th. 15 home runs in 60 games. 21% strikeout rate.

• Rice gets called up to play 1st base. He hits a crazy .294/.383/.588 in his first three weeks, capped off by a 3 home run game. Aaron Boone starts leading him off.

• He craters after the 3 home run game, hitting .112/.209/.235 through August 31st. He’s demoted to Triple-A. The final numbers are ugly, but his xwOBA is a solid .340.

• He hits .269/.421/.687 in 22 games in September, including a crazy .387/.474/.1.000 with 6 home runs stretch in the final 8 games. His final Triple-A batting line is .294/.428/.661.

Ben Rice was completely unknown at the draft, discovered by the Yankees almost by accident. He broke out in the middle of the 2023 season and has been pretty much the best hitter in the minor leagues since. He got called up early to the majors because the Yankees were desperate, hit for a few weeks, and then got overexposed.

Was he a flash in the pan? Quite possibly. Lots of players get exposed when pitchers start to put together a book on them. Or maybe he just needed a few more reps in the high minors.

Fast forward to the beginning of Spring Training. Rice came into camp jacked. He didn’t gain a lot of weight, but clearly shifted a lot of it to his shoulders and arms. Aaron Boone called him out as someone who looked good early in camp. Best shape of his life.

In one game he hit a ball 113.1 mph which is harder than anything he hit in the majors or Triple-A last year. His hardest hit ball at Triple-A (Double-A isn’t tracked) was 107 mph. In the majors, he hit one home run at 110 mph in July and 10 balls over 105 mph. That was already pretty good - well above average for a major league hitter. We’re spoiled by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton - many good MLB hitters never touch 110 mph. His 16% barrel rate was in the top 10%.

It wasn’t just that one ball either. Rice has hit 5 balls over 110 mph this Spring. Just today, he hit a 111 mph laser that was only a single because it got to the outfield wall so quickly.

Not counting today, Rice is 2nd among Spring Training players with a 76% hard hit rate:

That’s some pretty good company, although there are a few duds sprinkled in.

I think that Rice has won the Opening Day DH role, at least against right-handed pitching. I think it’s an open question a to whether he can hit left-handed pitching. His platoon split weren’t too bad in 2024 after being massive in 2023. Dominic Smith has hit a bit this Spring, but you would be crazy to play him over a player with Rice’s recent track record.

But is he any good? I don’t think that answer is knowable without giving him a lot of run in the major leagues. Lots of talented players flopped in their initial call ups. Lots of talented players showed a lot of talent in the minors but were exploited in the majors.

One reason that I’m optimistic about Rice: he regularly posted strikeout rate in the 18%-20% range in the minors. Even in his failed MLB call up, he struck out a very playable 27% of the time. He’s no Everson Pereira.

I think we can say a few things about Ben Rice. He’s hitting the ball harder than ever, probably because he put on a bunch of upper body muscle. Even before the extra exit velocity, Rice had a ton of potential as a hitter. Basically every single person in the top exit velocity, hard hit percentage or batted balls >110 mph leaderboard is an all star.

There are some exceptions. Giancarlo Stanton, Jake Burger, Jo Adell and Jesus Sanchez are all on the list. But there are lots of other fun names too: William Contreras, Rafael Devers, Brent Rooker and Kyle Schwarber, just to name a few mega stars. The ceiling is very high.

The average MLB designated hitter hit .244/.321/.421 in 2024. I think there’s a pretty good chance that Rice can beat that. Could he match Kyle Schwarber’s .248/.366/.485 batting line? I don’t see why not. Even if he splits the difference between the two, Rice would be a huge improvement over what the Yankees have gotten out of non-Judge DHs since Stanton stopped hitting during the regular season.

And don’t forget, Rice is still catching. He hasn’t looked out of place in Spring Training, although we’ll have to see how he looks when he actually plays in real major league games. No one seems to think that Rice is a future MLB catcher, but the same was said of Austin Wells.

Even if he doesn’t catch, his bat might play at 1st or DH. He didn’t look great at first in 2024, but in his defense had just a few dozen games under his belt at the position. He’s more athletic than your average catcher. His 27.5 ft/s sprint speed is in the range of (below average) major league corner outfielders.

I think that we’re watching something real this Spring Training with Rice. Yes, Spring numbers don’t matter much (his batting line isn’t even that good). We’ve seen hugely misleading performances from prospects with something to prove before, like Anthony Volpe in 2023. But, I’m much more confident when we see something underlying change. Rice really is hitting the ball harder than he ever has. You can’t fake that.

Just under one week to go. I’m getting hyped for Opening Day.