About the Postseason: Guarded Optimism
By Tim Kabel
October 17, 2024
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The Yankees were off last night after getting out to a two games to none lead over the Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS. There are potentially five games remaining in the series and the Yankees have to win two of them. The Guardians would have to win four. The odds seem to be in the Yankees favor. However, having the odds in your favor is not a guarantee of anything.
The Yankees won Tuesday night in a game they were lucky to win. Gerrit Cole was ineffective. Luke Weaver actually gave up a run. The Yankees left 17 men on base. In the 6th inning, Jazz Chisholm, Jr. and Anthony Rizzo both doubled and were quickly erased on the basepaths. As John Sterling noted, “the Yankees ran the bases like drunks.” (Sterling should be careful with remarks like that since they are not politically correct. It might end his career.)
Despite playing a sloppy game, the Yankees won. The Guardians played a sloppy game as well. They made two errors and their starting pitcher, Tanner Bibee only lasted 1.i innings.
Aaron Judge seems to be coming out of his slump, as he hit a home run and drove in three runs. The bullpen was extremely efficient once again. Anthony Volpe and Anthony Rizzo each had two hits. Things are looking good for the Yankees. They're headed into game three this evening with a two games to none league. That is very good and encouraging but, it guarantees nothing.
There are multiple examples of teams that had two games to none leads in a seven game series that eventually lost that series. The Guardians could return home and straighten themselves out. Their pitching could shut the Yankees down and the Guardians could beat up on Clark Schmidt and Luis Gil. I'm not saying that will happen. I'm just saying that it could happen. That is why the Yankees cannot let up. They need to avoid base running blunders and get timely hits. They need to make smart plays and play crisp defense. They need solid pitching from the starters and the relievers. They won a sloppy game on Tuesday. They might not get so lucky next time.
While being up two games to none is not a guarantee of anything, it is certainly better than being tied at one game apiece or trailing two games to none. In other words, we can feel very good about the Yankees’ prospects at this point but, we shouldn't start printing our World Series tickets just yet. Anything is possible and the Guardians are a very good team. They could easily come back and erase the Yankees’ advantage. The Yankees cannot take them for granted and must press on at full speed.
At this point, the Guardians have not yet named their starting pitcher for tonight. Honestly, it doesn't matter because the Yankees will need to beat whoever it is. They are certainly capable of doing so. They are also capable of losing to almost anyone but, they have been avoiding that lately. The fact that they are finding ways to win games now, as opposed to finding ways to lose them, is encouraging. Let's hope that trend continues.
As has been noted, the Yankees need to win 11 games to be the World Series Champions. Right now, they have 5 victories acumulated. They are almost halfway there. Ideally, the Yankees will wrap this up in Cleveland and not come back to Yankee Stadium needing to win the series. Obviously, they could still win the series but, it's always better to finish things up as quickly as possible and not leave anything to chance. When you leave things to chance, there's always a chance it won't work out. Right now, things look good for the Yankees. Not perfect obviously, but good. As Laurel and Hardy said in The March of the Wooden Soldiers, “so good, so far”. Hopefully when I write my recap of Friday night's game, it will be detailing a Yankees’ sweep or at the very least a three games to one lead in their favor.
Since you wrote this, Cleveland has named Boyd as a starter. Lefties have been challenging for the Yankees all year. Here's hoping Judge is really untracked now, and that Stanton keeps on mashing. I'd also like to see Berti and Trevino in the line-up.
Also typo: Yankees left 7 on base on Tuesday (plus two bonehead baserunning losses), not 17.
Some things don't need to be said, as they are obvious. It's better to be up 2-0 than be down 2-0? Wow...whoda thunk it.
They're headed into game three this evening with a two games to none league. That is very good and encouraging but, it guarantees nothing.
not quite, Tim.
as you noted, being up two games to none guarantees that Cleveland must win 4 of, at most, 5 games.
that is certainly possible, but's it's not too damocles likely
given that the Guardians are not at all a cut above the New York squad
Yankees fans of a certain age will remember the 1978 World Series. We lost the first 2 games in LA, then we won the next 3 at The Stadium (including Guidry pitching and my #9, Nettles, playing 3B in G3), then it happened to us with LA 3 years later. So, I for one never say it's over until it is. (Thanks 2004) But they say the postseason is all about the better pitching. Well so far, between the Dodgers in the NL, and the Yankees in the AL, who is pitching better than these 2 clubs? In an era of pitch counts and not wanting a guy to face a lineup a 3rd time (a whole other discussion, not…
This series is far from over. Cleveland essentially gave away two games. Yanks need to straightened themselves out, and get it together. The building will be a mad house tonight. NYY need to take fans out of game early and put up some crooked numbers, and add on. Id put runners on the move and force Naylor to make throws. This is a cavernous field with high wall in left center; shorten you swings, hit line drives, and beat them at their own game. The long ball will come by focusing on barreling up, not huge wild swings. Get it done!