About the Off-Season: Say it Ain’t Soto

About the Off-Season: Say it Ain’t Soto

By Tim Kabel

December 12, 2024

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On Sunday night, after I submitted my article for Monday, Juan Soto made his decision. He chose not to return to the Yankees and instead signed a 15-year $765 million contract with the Mets. With various options, the contract could exceed $800 million. A lot has been said and written about this situation in the following days. Although I am not quite as agitated as the actor, Nicholas Turturro, (who is, really?), I do have some thoughts.

It has been three days since Soto signed with the Mets. First, I am happy for my friend, Brian, who is a devoted Mets’ fan and my oldest sister Pat, who has the odd distinction of being both a Mets’ fan and a Yankees’ fan. I asked her if when she was a little girl, she rooted for both the North and the South in the Civil War. Now, to the nitty gritty.

I don't believe money was the primary reason why Juan Soto chose the Mets. It is true that the Mets’ contract was worth $5 million more than the one offered by the Yankees and that it was one year shorter. The difference between the two contracts in average annual value was about $3.5 million a year. It just seems to me that when you get into that stratosphere, the difference becomes somewhat negligible. For example, if I buy a ranch in Wyoming that has 742 acres but my friend buys a ranch that has 727 acres, I obviously bought the larger ranch.  But when you have two ranches that big, does it really matter which one is slightly bigger?

It was obvious that Juan Soto wanted to sign a contract larger than the one signed by Shohei Ohtani last year. Let's look at this logically. Why was that so important to Soto? Because it indicated that he is the bigger star. If he has a bigger contract than Ohtani, he is a bigger star. If you want to be the biggest star in the Major Leagues, you can't be the second biggest star on your own team.

The New York Yankees are Aaron Judge's team. His face is plastered all over the stadium and in advertisements everywhere. He is the captain. He has the “Judge's Chambers” section of seating in right field. He is also a better player than Soto. Judge is a two-time MVP and a Rookie of the Year. He is the American League home run champion with 62 homers in 2022. He has three seasons with 50 or more home runs. He is also beloved by Yankees’ fans. He is under contract with the Yankees for seven more seasons. The Yankees would not be Juan Soto’s team for at least seven more seasons. He will always be Dr. Watson to Aaron Judge’s Sherlock Holmes. That is indisputable. Even if Judge faded at the end of his career, he would still be revered. That is not to say that Soto wasn't beloved by Yankees’ fans during his one season with the Yankees. He was. But he was not Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge was Lucy. Juan Soto was Ethel Mertz.

Well in seven years, when Judge’s contract is finished, Juan Soto will be 33 years old. He would then logically have been the face of the Yankees’ franchise if he had signed here. However, there was a nightmare scenario. What if Jasson Dominguez explodes this season and realizes his vast potential? He will only be 22 years old. What if the “Martian” lives up to all the hype? He, like Judge, is a home-grown Yankee. What if Soto were sandwiched between those two careers. It would be great for the team but not so much for a player who craves the spotlight and wants to be, as Reggie Jackson once said, “the straw that stirs the drink.”

By signing with the Mets, Soto avoids all of that. He is the undisputed star of that team. Yet, he is still in New York City. It is a better situation for him. Fine, good luck to him and to the Mets. 

The Yankees have already begun the pivot that will be necessary. On Tuesday, they signed Max Fried, who is a top-notch pitcher, to an 8-year contract. He goes right to the top of the Yankees’ starting rotation, behind Gerrit Cole. That move gives them a surplus of pitching with which they can make a trade. As of this writing, the Yankees have not made any other moves but they are reportedly working on acquiring a first baseman and possibly trading for outfielder Kyle Tucker of the Astros. I'm sure that by the time you are reading this, the Yankees will once again have made at least one move after I submitted this article. Such is the nature of writing about sports, particularly during a flurry of activity.

I was among those who believed Juan Soto would return to the Yankees. I was wrong. Another part of the deal that he received from the Mets included a suite for his family at home games. The Yankees were unwilling to give that to him as part of their contract offer. I do not blame the Yankees for that at all. Both Derek Jeter and Aaron Judge had to pay for suites for their friends and families so it would be unfair and incongruous if the Yankees offered that to Soto as part of his contract. I don't believe the Yankees can be criticized for not signing Soto. They made a more than legitimate offer. While it is true that the AAV of the Yankees’ offer was lower than that of the Mets, there are players who would prefer the extra year, particularly those who are hoping to improve their statistics for their Hall of Fame resume. Regardless, it didn't work out, but it is possible that the combination of players the Yankees do acquire may help them more than the re-signing of Soto would have. We will have to wait and see.