About the Off-Season: If at First You Don’t Succeed
By Tim Kabel
December 2, 2024
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Christian Walker signed a contract with the Houston Astros yesterday. He is no longer an option to play first base for the Yankees. He had been linked to the Yankees for most of the off-season. However, after the Yankees signed Max Fried and had to give up draft picks, they were reportedly reluctant to do so again. After all, signing Walker would have cost them two more draft picks, for a total of four. I don't know if that means the Yankees will not sign another free agent who will cost them draft picks, but it seems that they did not feel Walker was worth the contract he would have commanded plus the draft picks, considering they already lost draft picks for Max Fried. Some people may think that the Yankees are being overly cautious regarding the compensatory draft picks but remember, Aaron Judge was a compensatory draft pick after the Yankees lost Nick Swisher to free agency.
The Yankees clearly need a first baseman as it is obvious they do not feel comfortable entrusting the position to Ben Rice at this point. So, what will they do?
If the Yankees signed Pete Alonso, they would lose draft picks for him as well. Perhaps because he is younger and would presumably sign a longer contract than Walker did, the Yankees may be more comfortable surrendering those picks. I have read articles saying that the Yankees are pursuing Alonso and others saying that they are not. Paul Goldschmidt, who is 37 years old, and seems to be declining, is also an option as is Carlos Santana. Neither of them would cost the Yankees draft picks and most likely would sign short-term contracts. Will the Yankees sign one of those two players or will they try to make a trade?
Another option would be to shift newly acquired Cody Bellinger to first base and look for another outfielder. The Yankees could do that with Anthony Santander but, he also signed a qualifying offer and would cost the Yankees draft picks. If they sign Alex Bregman to play third base, the same situation will arise. After signing Max Fried, the Yankees are in a bit of a bind when it comes to free agent signings that will cost draft picks.
It is reasonable to assume that the Yankees may sign one more free agent that will cost them picks draft picks, but probably not more than that. It would also have to be the right free agent. Perhaps they will sign Alex Bregman and forfeit the draft picks for him but then sign Paul Goldschmidt to play first base to a one-year contract or perhaps a one-year contract with an option for a second year. That way, they would only be making a short-term commitment to an aging, former MVP while simultaneously putting themselves in a position to pursue Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. next year...
At this point, I think it is more likely that the Yankees will sign either Goldschmidt or Santana for first base on a very short-term contract. Ben Rice could remain with the team, filling in for Goldschmidt or Santana as needed. There really are not a lot of options for either third base or second base at this point. There are more options at first base than there are at third base or second base, which provides the Yankees with flexibility. In addition, the fact that Bellinger could always be moved to first base provides them with even more flexibility.
The Yankees have a lot of options when it comes to completing their roster for 2025. Basically, they need a first baseman and either a second baseman or a third baseman. Alternatively, if they move Bellinger to first base, they will need an outfielder. They do have some chips to trade, but it is unclear which players would be available to fill those positions from other teams. In addition, the cost in prospects is unknown. The Yankees have some choices to make. So far, they have done a good job after losing out on Juan Soto. Signing Paul Goldschmidt might not be as appealing as signing Pete Alonso but, the contract would be less expensive and for a shorter term and would not cost the Yankees any draft picks
It will be interesting to see which moves the Yankees make as they fill out their roster for next season. They need to be careful. They cannot be too cautious or it will be like a game of musical chairs where the Yankees are left without a seat.
I anticipate them making a move of some kind or perhaps two before Christmas.
while it's nice to think about Vladi Guerrero's availability in free agency after the 2025 season, I would imagine that Toronto is going to go all-out to sign him for the long haul
and they're going to press to get it done within the next few weeks
it twere not done quickly, it seems like the Jays' best alternative would be to trade him before January ends.
Goldschmidt is an intriguing option as a platoon with Rice/Rumfield, as his 2024 L/R OPS split was .839/.675, though that assumes Rice can improve on his .655 OPS vs. righties.
"Aaron Judge was a compensatory draft pick after the Yankees lost Nick Swisher to free agency."
People need to stop using this as an example.
Aaron Judge was a compensatory draft pick after the first round. The draft pick the Yankees lost by signing Fried (the pick they got when the Mets signed Soto) would have come after the fourth round.
Subsequent draft picks signed would cost the Yankees their second and fifth highest picks, not necessarily their second and fifth round picks. Anyway I'm not in favor of signing most of the remaining free agents who would require draft pick compensation.
The only way I'd sign Goldschmidt would be if it was for 81 games with a team option for the rest of the season (and playoffs). And of course, league minimum with incentives. (Probably should have just typed, NO WAY!)
I'd feel a lot better about the Yankees roster issues if the Yankees had themselves some real bonafide coaches who are both know how and who the Front Office allows to coach baseball the baseball-first way.
I like the idea of Goldschmidt or Santa on a one year deal, but that in reality would mean that DJ LeMahieu is really, a true, bench player, or released at the end of Spring Training. I'm not convinced Cashman can do either, which in turn puts the heat on Boone, for the lineup that has too much LeMahieu in it (even if the lineup comes from the front office). I'm thinking that 1B Rice will be his to lose, with DJ still ab…