About Spring Training: They’ve Got the Power

About Spring Training: They’ve Got the Power

By Tim Kabel

March 20, 2025

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The other day, Tino Martinez stated that he felt Cody Bellinger will hit forty home runs for the Yankees this season. Remember, Tino Martinez hit 44 home runs for the Yankees in 1997, so he knows a thing or two about a thing or two. Tino's prediction got me thinking, which is always a potentially dangerous thing. Anyway, I thought we could have a little fun today since Opening Day is exactly one week away. I will make my predictions for the number of home runs that each of the regulars will hit in 2025. This is intended to be a fun exercise. Look and see if you agree. I will go around the diamond.

·      Catcher-Austin Wells: I think Austin Wells will take a big jump this season, which will be his first full season as the Yankees’ starting catcher. If he is given sufficient rest this season, I expect him to hit very well, with a great deal of power. Now that he has established himself as the starting catcher and is familiar with the pitching staff, he will presumably be able to focus a bit more on his offense. I don't know if he will bat leadoff for the whole season but regardless, I expect he will hit a minimum of 25 home runs. I would not be surprised if he exceeded that number.

·      First Base-Paul Goldschmidt: I think that Goldschmidt will have something of a renaissance with the Yankees. He seems motivated and has 362 home runs in his career. He has hit 30 or more home runs seven times in his career. However, the last time he did so was 2022. He has declined in each of the last two seasons. Last year, he hit 22 home runs. He was better offensively in the second half of the season than he was in the first half. He is also 37 years old. Players usually don't improve as they age but, I think he could have a resurgence for one year. I predict he will hit 28 home runs, not quite reaching the 30 home run plateau but, coming close enough to provide protection for Aaron Judge.

·      Second Base- Jazz Chisolm, Jr.: Chisholm seemed to flourish when he came to the Yankees. Since he is a left-handed hitter, the short porch in right field gives him a nice target. I think he will be motivated to join the 30/30 club by hitting thirty home runs and stealing 30 bases. I expect his home run total to go up as he will be playing a full season for the Yankees. I predict he will hit 31 home runs this season and will steal 42 bases.

·      Shortstop- Anthony Volpe: Volpe is not really a home run hitter. Sometimes, he thinks he is and that usually gets him into trouble. He needs to avoid that and concentrate on getting on base. If he does that, he will get his fair share of home runs. In his rookie season, he hit 21. Last year, he fell to 12 home runs. The Yankees do not need Volpe to hit home runs. I predict he will split the difference between his first two seasons and hit 16 home runs but his batting average and on base percentage will both improve significantly.

·      Third Base- Oswaldo Cabrera: Cabrera has not officially been named the Yankees’ starting third baseman but, he seems to be winning the competition with Oswald Peraza. It is possible that the Yankees could acquire someone else to play third base before the season starts but at this point, I will assume that the job belongs to Cabrera. I think if he becomes a full-time player, he will become more consistent, and his power numbers should increase. He will not remind anyone of Graig Nettles on either side of the ball but, I think 15 home runs is a reasonable expectation for Oswaldo Cabrera.

·      Leftfield- Jasson Dominguez: The Martian will finally and permanently arrive this season. I predict this will be a tremendous year for him as he cements himself as the Yankees’ left fielder. He is only 22 years old, but he has exhibited tremendous speed and power as he developed as a ballplayer. I think he will put everything together this season. I do not predict that he will have as huge a leap as Aaron Judge did, going from 4 home runs in 2016 to 52 in 2017. However, I think Dominguez will hit 31 home runs and steal over 50 bases, earning the Rookie of the Year award.

·      Centerfield- Cody Bellinger: Who am I to argue with Tino Martinez? Bellinger did hit 47 home runs in his career but, that was six years ago. His subsequent seasons were marred by injuries and his home run totals fell off. However, he appears to be healthy this season and the short porch in Yankee Stadium will work to his advantage. I predict Bellinger will hit 42 home runs.

·      Right field- Aaron Judge: Since I have been writing for SSTN, I have predicted that Judge would hit 54 home runs every season. He exceeded that in 2022 by hitting 62. In 2023, he missed a lot of time due to injury but still hit 37 home runs. Last year, he hit 58. I will stay the course and predict that Aaron Judge will hit 54 home runs this season.

·      Designated Hitter- Ben Rice: there is always a chance that Aaron Boone could give this slot to Dominic Smith but due to Rice’s recent offensive onslaught, I don't think even Boone would be that silly. At this point, Ben Rice has five home runs through Spring Training. Yesterday, he hit a home run that was clocked at 110.3 mph exit velocity. Last season, Rice hit 31 home runs across 3 levels of the Yankees’ system. He has added muscle and is hitting the ball harder and more often in Spring Training. As another left-handed hitter, I suspect that if he is the full-time designated hitter for the whole season, he will hit 37 home runs. I do not believe that Giancarlo Stanton will play at all for the Yankees this year.

To recap here are my predictions for the number of home runs by the 2025 New York Yankees starters:

·      Austin Wells-                 25

·      Paul Goldschmidt         28

·      Jazz Chisolm, Jr.           31

·      Anthony Volpe              16

·      Oswaldo Cabrera          15

·      Jasson Dominguez       31

·      Cody Bellinger               42

·      Aaron Judge                  54

·      Ben Rice                         37

Let me know what you think of these predictions. I will revisit them at the midway point of the season and at the end, to see how accurate I was.