A Massive Roster Crunch is Coming

by EJ Fagan

August 24, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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YES had a fun graphic the other day that showed that a ton of injured Yankees are about to begin rehab assignments at Double-A.

On top of this crew, Jazz Chisholm came back on Friday. Oswald Peraza was already sent down.

What role will each of these guys play? Who goes down when they come back? The Yankees have two extra spots coming their way when rosters expand. And what about Jasson Dominguez? Let’s game this out.

Anthony Rizzo

Can Rizzo still play? I’m skeptical. He was punchless from pretty much Opening Day. I wrote a post called, “Is Anthony Rizzo Okay?” all the way back on April 14th. He had a brief hot streak with four home runs to end April, but pretty much lost all of his power after that. You hate to see a human being get hurt, but the arm injury almost felt merciful. The Yankees didn’t seem like they were in a rush to get him back on the field.

But, Ben Rice has been real bad lately. He’s not even putting up respectable xwOBA numbers lately. Maybe he can mirror Austin Wells and start hitting again. But the Yankees don’t have the kind of time right now. I think Rice goes down. If Rizzo still has a limp bat in a few weeks, they can try Rice again.

Jon Berti

Remember him? Utility player. Strong defender. Fast runner. Had the worst calf injury that you’ve ever seen live. Berti makes so much sense on a playoff roster.

Berti doesn’t have particularly strong platoon splits, but is a right-handed hitter who can hold his own against lefties. He’ll be a late game defensive replacement, situational pinch hitter and bunter, and pinch runner.

Who goes down? I don’t think Cabrera is at risk given how productive he’s been lately. Berti hasn’t played much at all this year, so I could imagine them extending his rehab assignment until September.

Clark Schmidt

Schmidt’s slow rehab has been a bit conspicuous. He was throwing off a mound more than a month ago, and by all accounts his stuff was nasty. After lots of bullpens and live batting practices, Schmidt is finally going to throw in games.

The Yankees would be real dumb at this point to send him to the bullpen. Luis Gil’s “injury” opens up a rotation spot, although Schmidt probably needs two or more appearances before he is built up. Schmidt should have as good of a chance to earn a playoff spot as any of the Rodon, Stroman, Gil and Cortes group. He could easily be your Game 2 starter.

Will Warren will eventually go down for Schmidt, although Luis Gil will eventually come back up to take a spot as well. We’ll count Schmidt as part of the September call ups below.

Ian Hamilton

The Yankees could really use an Ian Hamilton return to his 2023 form.

Hamilton doesn’t have much of a track record of being that good, so his 2024 numbers could just be closer to his true talent level. But the Yankees need more stuff to throw against the wall to see what sticks, so Hamilton should get a shot.

Tim Mayza is the obvious first relief pitcher to go down. He has options. He’s not good.

Cody Poteet

Poteet postes a 2.14 ERA in four starts back when everything was going well for the Yankees. I wonder if he would have cracked the rotation during the dog days of July, but I’m also skeptical of his 5.10 xERA in the majors this year.

Starting is off the table for Poteet, but he seems like another great bullpen candidate. Let’s see if that killer sinker plays up in short outings.

I think Michael Tonkin is next on the chopping block. His ERA is over 5.00 since June 20th. It was a miracle that he lasted that long. I believe Tonkin can still be optioned to the minors, so they wouldn’t even have to lose him.

Scott Effross

Remember him? It was a bit of a surprise to see the Yankees option Effross after a short rehab assignment. Effross was getting hit at Triple-A. His fastball velocity was averaging 88-89 mph back in June and July. He’s turned it around in August, hitting his 2022-level 90.5 mph on his sinker.

It’s time to bring Effross up. I suspect that the roster crunch is the only reason why we haven’t seen him yet. I guess we’ll have to wait until September 1st, but if I were Cashman I wouldn’t wait. Every game counts in a close division.

Lou Trivino

He also exists! Trivino has made three rehab appearances at Somerset already. He’s coming up soon as well. More relief options!

Jasson Dominguez

I’ve already made my case for calling Dominguez up. But who goes down? I think you would have to clear one of Verdugo or Grisham off the roster. Both are pretty much just replacement players at this point. Dominguez can play center, so it doesn’t hurt to lose Grisham.

The Roster Moves

Some of these moves might take place after September 1st, so I’m just going to do these assuming the Yankees have 28 roster spots and everyone has finished their rehab.

Add 8 players: Berti, Dominguez, Schmidt, Rizzo, Effross, Poteet, Hamilton, Trivino

Option 5 players: Rice, Tonkin, Grisham, Mayza, Warren

DFA: LeMahieu

A few other players could find their way to the majors. Ron Marinaccio has had a great Triple-A season. J.T. Brubaker could make his way back. Nick Burdi is technically healthy.

Why LeMahieu? First off, it’s basically impossible to call up so many players without DFAing a position player. Grisham has options, so they can send him down. Verdugo could also be a DFA candidate. Or both. The Yankees also have to free up some 40-man spots for 60-day IL guys.