Bargain Shopping for Rotation Depth
- Domenic Lanza
- Mar 8
- 3 min read
by Domenic Lanza
March 13, 2025
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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A week or so ago, the Yankees had one of the strongest projected rotations in the game.
Gerrit Cole appeared all the way back, after missing half of 2024. Luis Gil, fresh off of a Rookie of the Year winning campaign, was deemed untouchable. Clarke Schmidt, coming off of a breakout (albeit abbreviated) 2024, was set to start as early as the first week of April. Carlos Rodón pitched a full, healthy season, and was mostly solid. And Marcus Stroman was viewed as a luxury item, because they signed Max Fried - arguably the best pitcher on the market - to a long-term deal. The rotation, then, looked something like this:
Cole
Fried
Gil
Schmidt
Rodón
Stroman / Will Warren / Carlos Carrasco
As I write this, the rotation, at least for the first three months of the season, now appears to be:
Fried
Schmidt
Rodón
Stroman
Warren / Carrasco
The sixth starter competition turned into two-fifths of the starting rotation in a veritable heartbeat, and there simply isn’t much depth in the upper levels of the Yankees system. If they hope to rebuild that depth, there are a few intriguing options on the free agent market. We’ll start with a familiar one:
Lance Lynn
2024: 117.1 IP, 3.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 109 ERA+, 4.31 FIP, 1.3 fWAR, 0.3 bWAR
Okay, that doesn’t look so great. However, the majority of the damage came in July, when Lynn attempted to pitch through a knee injury - one that eventually sidelined him for about six weeks. In 17 starts pre-injury, he posted a 3.59 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 87.2 IP, and struck out nearly a batter an inning. In 18.2 July innings, he had a 6.27 ERA and 7.02 FIP, and struck out only 13 batters (against 10 walks).
Lynn looked quite good in his two-start September outro, and has reportedly lost 20-plus pounds this off-season to try to reduce the stress on his knees. He has generally been a durable pitcher, and has a long track record of success in the playoffs. He’ll be 38 in May, which isn’t ideal - but he seems a reasonable bet to provide competent, if not competitive, innings.
Kyle Gibson
2024: 169.2 IP, 3.6 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 99 ERA+, 4.42 FIP, 1.5 fWAR, 0.9 bWAR
Gibson is the epitome of the modern innings eater. Since coming up to the show for good in 2014, he has failed to reach at least 29 starts twice - once in 2016, when he made 25 starts, and again in 2020 (when he took all twelve turns in the rotation). He has been pitching simulated games to coincide with Spring Training, and may well be the optimal “safe” pick for any team looking to secure some decent innings.
Lynn might have a bit of upside, in terms of being a guy that could turn back the clock and look dominant here and there. Gibson, who’ll be 37 for the entirety of the season, will just keep you in games.
Spencer Turnbull
2024: 54.1 IP, 3.3 BB/9, 9.6 K/9, 154 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 0.7 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR
The 32-year-old Turnbull has exactly one healthy season on his ledger, way back in 2019. Shoulder, back, and neck injuries have robbed him of several starts over the years, and he had Tommy John Surgery in 2022. If the goal is to get someone that offers a peace of mind upgrade, then Turnbull isn’t that guy.
If the Yankees are looking for someone that offers legitimate upside, though, he is their only option. Turnbull’s breaking ball value was in the 95th percentile last year, with his sweeper, slider, and curveball all looking like well above-average offerings. He split his time between the rotation and the bullpen, and all indications are that he is comfortable being a swing man - the key, of course, is the opportunity.
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