by Domenic Lanza
March 8, 2025
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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It is quite tempting to simply look at what Chisholm did in pinstripes last season, and set that as our expectations moving forward. After all, he was a consensus top-hundred prospect three years in a row, beginning in 2019, and had shown flashes of brilliance as a big-leaguer (including 2.5 fWAR and a 134 wRC+ in just 60 games in 2022). After parts of five seasons in the show, Chisholm escaped the clown show that is the Miami Marlins, and raked with the Yankees. And now he will play the entirety of this season as a 27-year-old.
As a reminder, it is not an overstatement to say that he raked in pinstripes. In 46 games and 191 PA, Chisholm hit .273/.325/.500 (132 wRC+) with 11 home runs, 18 steals (2 CS), and 2.3 fWAR. Prorate that to 650 PA and you get 37 dingers, 61 SB, and 7.8 fWAR. That’ll play.
Of course - and unfortunately - it isn’t that simple.
Most folks reading this likely recall the tear that Chisholm started off on with the Yankees. He hit 7 HR in his first 12 games, and slashed .300/.352/.740 (203 wRC+). In the next 34 games … well … take a look:
It’s not what you want.
The big caveat here is that 46 games is an incredibly small sample size, and bifurcating it even further is borderline silly. That said, when one fork is an outlier, and the other is closer to the norm, it might just make sense to punt the former. Unless there’s a reason to think there’s a bit more under the hood:
That doesn’t help too much, either! Upon joining the Yankees, Chisholm swung much more often at everything, and made less contact - but the results on contact were much better.
Once he settled down, though, he swung less than before, and made more (lesser quality) contact. Was that a conscious choice in approach? Or a product of his elbow injury? A bit of both? Or maybe it’s just another small sample size that doesn’t really provide enough data from which to draw conclusions.
The projection systems do like Chisholm heading into 2025, and essentially see him splitting the difference between his Yankees and Marlins production. ZiPS, for example, sees a .251/.318/.448 line (115 wRC+), with 24 HR and 32 SB, and the others are fairly close. I would take that in a heartbeat.
There isn’t much to say about Chisholm’s defense. He shifted back to second, where he has posted 8 OAA and 7 DRS in 1330.1 career innings, and he believes that he and Anthony Volpe will be the best defensive middle infield in the game. Given how quickly and wonderfully he took to the hot corner, there is little reason to doubt that Chisholm can pick up where he left off at the keystone.
Good analysis, thanks.