by EJ Fagan
January 2025
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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In my book, an X factor in baseball is a high-variance player of importance. A large chunk of the next season’s success will hinge on this player, and we don’t yet have a good idea of what the outcome will be. So, Aaron Judge is important but not an X factor because we’re pretty sure that he’s great and Fernando Cruz has lots of variance but not an X factor because he’s not that important to the 2025 Yankees.
Who is the 2025 X factor? I think the answer is pretty clearly Jasson Dominguez.
If Dominguez lives up to his potential, he could be one of the best young players in the league, a top of the order hitter and an answer in left field that the Yankees have lacked since Brett Gardner retired. If he flops, then Trent Grisham, Mr. .191/.298/.353 since 2022, is an everyday player. Yikes.
I’m cautiously optimistic.
Dominguez’s 2024 season requires a pretty nuanced examination. At the tender age of 21, he started off the year recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees brought him back before his arm was fully recovered as a DH. He wasn’t even allowed to play every day for weeks. Just as he was getting back into a rhythm, Dominguez strained his oblique. He came back quicker than projected, took a minute to warm up, mashed, and was promoted to the majors just before the end of the regular season.
The overall batting line was strong. He hit .314/.376/.504 in 58 minor league games. He made lots of contact (19% strikeout rate at Triple-A) and stole 16 bases with one caught stealing.
But let’s dig in deeper. Dominguez has always been someone with a bit of an adjustment period, probably because of his age. After a slow-ish start in 2023, he posted a a crazy .350/.416/.573 batting line in between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors after the All Star Break as a 20 year-old.
He was hitting .350/.377/.635 between Double-A and Triple-A when he suffered the oblique injury in June. He returned from the injury two or three weeks earlier than expected and slumped. His first five games were bad, he was solid for a few weeks, then he hit .353/.405/.554 in his final 17 Triple-A games, including an 0-4 stint as the 27th man in New York on August.
The Statcast data pretty much back the 2024 numbers up, although he was probably getting a little lucky in June. One dirty little secret of Dominguez’s 2023 breakout was that Statcast thought he was getting super duper lucky during his hot two weeks in Triple-A. That’s not a concern anymore, and his 92-93 mph average EV would put him around 20th-ish in the majors.
Basically, Dominguez has absolutely mashed in the high minors when healthy since the middle of the 2023 season. His limited major league record is more spotty, but his record adjusting to new levels suggests that it’s nothing to be concerned about yet.
What about defense? I’m not even a little bit concerned. Dominguez dropped two balls in his brief major league transition last year. It happens. Dominguez has a strong record as an average-ish centerfielder in the minors and should be well above average in left.
Add it all up and you have a player with tons of potential. One huge red flag: his OPS is .400 better against righties than lefties. It’s normal for switch hitters to struggle against lefties (who they don’t see much in the minors) early in their career, but that’s a pretty huge gap. But glass half full: he has lots of room to grow.
And he’ll be just 22 years old next season. Between losing his debut season to COVID and half of the 2024 to Tommy John and an oblique strain, he’s got way fewer reps under his belt than he should at his age. We have every reason to believe that he is an unfinished product.
What would be a successful season? I think we should temper our expectations a little bit. The average MLB hitter posted a pretty pathetic .243/.312/.399 batting line in 2024. If Dominguez posts something like a .270/.330/.450 batting line with solid defense, he would be an immensely valuable player. Alex Verdugo was the worst qualified left fielder in baseball last year with a .227/.291/.342 batting line, average-ish defense and poor baserunning.
Of course, he could also have another gear. He has the speed, contact and exit velocity combination to do some special things if everything clicks. Just check out this leaderboard of hitters in the 92-93 mph exit velocity range:
Lots of names to dream on there, especially the contact hitters of the group. Dominguez has a rare talent for destroying baseballs.
So I’m taking the over on Dominguez. I’ll never be truly comfortable with betting on a prospect to hold down a roster spot, but Dominguez has the combination of talent and experience to settle my nerves. There’s nothing else you can do but give him a shot and see what happens.
If not Jasson leading off, then who?
I believe this is the year he shows his true potential and sticks in the majors.... however putting him in leadoff would be a mistake but batting him in 7hole would be a nice place to start and see how he progresses... his upside is huge!
Maybe this is a question for Andy's mailbag, but to what extent is Dominguez's extreme OPS platoon split likely due to the oblique injury? I find it hard to believe that he's worse than Cabrera vs. lefties.
He's 22 years old. They should not put any un needed pressure on him. Bat him down in the lineup until he proves he has earned and can handle more responsibility. Starting the kid off as the leadoff hitter (as some have suggested) would be a monumental mistake, and frankly a panic move. Let him adjust and find his place in MLB. There is no rush. AL East is weak, added playoff spots, etc.
OVER
would like to see an over 40-40 season from young Jasson
but it's likely to be one forty or th'other, depending upon where he's placed in the batting order