by EJ Fagan
February 25, 2025
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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At first glance, 2024 may have been the beginning of Gerrit Cole’s decline years. An elbow injury limited him to 95 regular season innings. His ERA was a solid but not Cy Young-worthy 3.41, and his fastball velocity and strikeout rate dipped to his lowest levels as a Yankee.
That’s a Baseball Savant page for a solid starter, but not an ace. It would shock no one for a starting pitcher to start to slip a bit as they enter their mid-30s.
But, there is good news. Cole got better as he got his arm strength back. A lot better. Cole came back on June 19th. Through August 1st:
7 starts, 35 IP
5.40 ERA / 5.54 FIP
11% swinging strikes. 38 strikeouts, 12 walks, 9 home runs.
After August 1st (including getting Devers’d for seven runs against Boston):
10 starts, 60 IP
2.25 ERA / 2.62 FIP
11% swinging strikes, 61 strikeouts, 17 walks, 2 home runs
What changed? Basically, control. His stuff was pretty much the same - no difference in fastball velocity, spin or swinging strike rate. But he walked fewer batters and gave up a lot fewer meatballs.
Then, Cole showed up in October: 29 innings over 5 starts with a 2.17 ERA. And yes, Rizzo should have covered 1st.
Basically, Cole struggled a bit after coming back from injury, then settled in to a low-2.00s ERA. However, his stuff clearly dipped. His fastball was about one mph slower than in 2023. His strikeout rate was below his lofty career numbers, but that decline actually started a year earlier.
I think that we can assume for the moment that Cole should return to his peak form until we have some evidence otherwise. It makes sense for a pitcher to struggle after returning from an elbow injury. But, I’ll be on the lookout for signs of decline. Does his velocity decline further? Does his swing and miss rate take another hit? The answers to those questions will determine if Gerrit Cole has a late career like the Scherzer/Verlander/Greinke/Kershaw group or something more normal.
MUST HE be an ace or is it well sufficient if 2025 Cole's performance is slightly diminished?
adding Max Fried, nearly an ace, to a staff that features Rodon, a guy with strong, strong stuff and less strong control is an excellent improvement.
Clarke Schmidt and ROY Gil round out the rotation and the two give it a real chance to roll through the league.
the Yankees need good health from their starters in the coming season, especially if they follow through on the much-hyped attempt to dump Stroman.
the team may not need Cole to be an ace
but they well may require a good sixth starter, one capable of keeping Will Warren as the 7th.