by EJ Fagan
February 2025
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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Remember Clark Schmidt? It’s real weird that we don’t talk about this guy. He’s currently listed as the team’s 5th starter, but actually led all Yankee starters in ERA in 2024. But we almost never talk about him, except sometimes to propose a trade or speculate about converting him to the bullpen.
Schmidt only pitched 85 innings in 2024 after suffering a lat injury at the end of May. However, it sure did feel like the Yankees were delaying Clark’s return from the IL because they had a full rotation. After initial estimates of a 4-6 week IL stint, Schmidt was healthy enough to throw in early July and was throwing bullpens by mid-July. Had he thrown 120 innings rather than 85, I think that we would be really excited about Schmidt.
Schmidt’s 2023 season wasn’t great. He tried to reinvent himself as a cutter-sweeper-sinker pitcher, after playing most of his career as more of a classical 4-seam-curve power righty. He got hammered in April, made some adjustments, and settled into a mid-4.00s ERA, five-innings per start equilibrium. Basically, 5th starter stuff. Lefties hammered him for an .875 OPS versus .682 against righties.
What changed in 2024? Basically, he figured out how to attack lefties. He did not have a significant platoon split in this year. He threw a lot more cutters to lefties, and those cutters had a much higher whiff rate. Here are his cutters to lefties:
In 2023, Schmidt figured out that he needed a pitch to get lefties out. It wasn’t quite there in his first year throwing the pitch, but he figured it out. Without his biggest weakness, Schmidt was transformed into an above average starting pitcher.
What about the low innings count? It is true that Schmidt has been mostly a 5-inning pitcher for most of his career. He actually started to go a little deeper before the lat injury, but I don’t think that tells us much. I think that Schmidt is just a typical starting pitcher in the modern day. 150 innings over 30 starts is the norm.
It all adds up to a pretty good package. Schmidt is an above average starting pitcher. He might have another gear (especially if there’s something behind ERA being a run better than xERA), but he doesn’t really need it. The Yankees have Gerrit Cole and Max Fried to start most of their playoff games. Schmidt fits comfortably as a 3-5 starter in the major leagues, and starts to become a real asset the farther back you push him in the rotation. As far as I can tell, only three or four teams in 2024 had a comparable 4th or 5th starter.
The bottom line is that it’s time to stop thinking about Schmidt as a relief conversion candidate or a rookie trying to find his way. He’s a solid 29 year-old major league starting pitcher under team control for three years. The dude deserves some respect.
My question is: Is Cashman & Briend's (through both Blake & Claiborne) philosophy and method, enough to get Schmidt to take the next step? I don't think so. Does anyone else realize that all 5 Starting Pitchers, including Cody Poteet, when replacing an injured Schmidt, all performed Grade A - all before Cole started his own rehab assignment?
Yes, I've been extremely harsh, rough, downright mean/vicious etc. on Blake, but I've come to realize a lot that he does is on orders from the man who interviewed him, his real boss, Sam Briend. Remember, Boone was not in the building when they first interviewed him, but Cashman & Briend were.
respect must be earned
and, thus far, Schmidt has earned a reputation for great potential.
he remains the 5th starter until he goes the full season and compiles a 3.00 ERA....
after that, we can decide whether the guy has outstripped Gil for the third spot in the rotation