Breakout Candidate: Miguel Andujar

Andujar 2014 If I had to pick one prospect to have a break out (defined as being rated a top-50 prospect in all of baseball a year from now) 2015 season, it would be Miguel Andujar.

Andujar was one of the most notable Yankee July 2nd signings in 2011. He spent most of his age 17 and 18 seasons working out at the Yankee facility in Tampa. Some success the second time around with the GCL Yankees (.323/.368/.496 batting line in a small sample) earned him an aggressive promotion to Charleston to start 2014, where he was the 4th youngest player in the South Atlantic League.

At first glance, the numbers don't look great: .267/.318/.397 with a solid 15.7% strikeout rate. But I think a deeper dive reveals a lot of good news. Here are his splits and park-adjusted rates:

  • Park adjusted batting line: .279/.328/.420 (.362 wOBA)
  • Vs. LHP: .188/.211/.250 Vs. RHP: .295/.355/.449
  • Home: .250/.296/.362 Away: .281/.337/.427
  • First Half: .212/.267/.335 19.4 K% Second Half: .319/.367/.456 14.9 K%

Those splits should be music to all of our ears. They scream the profile of a talented but inexperienced prospect who found himself during the 2014 season, and check all the boxes. Young hitters tend to struggle against left-handed hitters, because they don't see many of them. They improve as they gain experience. And Charleston is a brutal place to hit for power as a right-handed hitter.

Top that off with an above-average projection on defense, lots of power projection left in his growing body, and baseball's new premium on right-handed power, and Andujar starts looking like a real stud.

What kind of 2015 season would land him in the top-50? I think something like his second half line: .319/.367/.456 and a late July promotion to Double-A would do it. Baseball America already ranked him #10 in a deep system this year, so Andujar is well regarded by people watching closely.